Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Interitus]

That is a projection on this winters proposed H5 anomalies based on the current SST pattern and is very similar to last month's projection. Interestingly the increased heights in the Bering sea region and weak Greenland to Scandi increases fit in very nicely with similar analog years.

 

 

Has anyone got the link to the web page that this projection comes from ( not Joe B's) Thanks in advance.

 

They are constructed analog (CA) charts - it's non-operational material, but interesting stuff http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/

For those particular charts click 'SST CA' - 'SEP' (2013) - 'Real Time Z500, T2m.....' or use the direct link and lose the frame navigation -  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201309/carealtime.html

[Methuselah]

I would like to see our being around the boundary-layer between cold and mild: snow showers confined to eastern coasts is not everyone's cup of tea - even if it is -10...IMO, nationwide snow-events are better for most...

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm hoping for more robust heights positioned over Greenland this coming winter. From an IMBY perspective I don't want to see the main pulse of the height anomalies over Scandinavia as we saw last year.

 

Scandinavian high still the holy grail for me but stretching to Iceland so we are not reliant on frontal incursions from the West, at least with Easterlies there is a chance anywhere theoretically, with a straight Northerly its a guaranteed wishbone effect, THAT ECM is the holy grail, we want a powerhouse to smash past the uk and into Ireland with preferably sub -12 uppers, certainly -10 and the high far enough North, at least the 1010mb SLP isobar as far North as here, preferably 1000mb, and with tight isobars, then after the convective stage of the Easterly, we then want a curvature in the isobars and some sort of little occlusion moving West and North like 91 and we don't want the sinking effect like March and the high further enough North.

[chionomaniac]

They are constructed analog (CA) charts - it's non-operational material, but interesting stuff http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/

For those particular charts click 'SST CA' - 'SEP' (2013) - 'Real Time Z500, T2m.....' or use the direct link and lose the frame navigation -  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201309/carealtime.html

Thanks. I have sen them floating about for a while now but didn't know where the site was.

[Paul]

Scottish mountain snow and white xmas odds (by Jo)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5450;sess=

 

Winter's coming....

 

[feb1991blizzard]

-8c 850s clipping Shetland Islands.

 

Edited October 8, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Frank Trough]

-8c 850s clipping shetlands.

 

 

 

.....which won't verify.

[Gavin Hannah]

Scandinavian high still the holy grail for me but stretching to Iceland so we are not reliant on frontal incursions from the West, at least with Easterlies there is a chance anywhere theoretically, with a straight Northerly its a guaranteed wishbone effect, THAT ECM is the holy grail, we want a powerhouse to smash past the uk and into Ireland with preferably sub -12 uppers, certainly -10 and the high far enough North, at least the 1010mb SLP isobar as far North as here, preferably 1000mb, and with tight isobars, then after the convective stage of the Easterly, we then want a curvature in the isobars and some sort of little occlusion moving West and North like 91 and we don't want the sinking effect like March and the high further enough North.

 

I agree, every time I see a northerly, I just know that all we will get is some cold days and nights with relatively little in the way of inland convection. Bring on the beasterly.

[NorthernRab]

-8c 850s clipping shetlands.

 

 

They hate that, just to forewarn you. 

[Mark Neal.]

In the meantime some wintery weather over very high ground in Scotland tomorrow. Windy aswell. Raw windchill!

[BornFromTheVoid]

BFTV, that shows summer arctic below average for most of the summer?  Never mind right now, but the summer was cold???  Thats what I can see anyway, but thanks for all the other stuff too for the record, helpful to all, 

 

BFTP

 

Hi BFTP, those temperatures are just for north of 80N, which is only around a 20% of the Arctic. If you look back through the records on the DMI site here, you can see that they never stray far from average during summer, due to the heat being removed from the air to melt the ice, which holds the temperature just above 0C. There has also been numerous changes to the temperature series, which may make things appear cooler than reality, which you can read here and here.

Even in the very warm summers, such as 2007, the DMI 80N graph showed more below than above average temperatures.

 

Looking at the higher levels, such as the 925 or 850hPa temperature for the whole Arctic, like in the NSIDC chart in my previous post, can give a better idea of the actual temperatures. I would have used the ncep reanalysis data to show this, but the sites are offline unfortunately.

[Interitus]

Hi BFTP, those temperatures are just for north of 80N, which is only around a 20% of the Arctic. If you look back through the records on the DMI site here, you can see that they never stray far from average during summer, due to the heat being removed from the air to melt the ice, which holds the temperature just above 0C. There has also been numerous changes to the temperature series, which may make things appear cooler than reality, which you can read here and here.

Even in the very warm summers, such as 2007, the DMI 80N graph showed more below than above average temperatures.

 

Looking at the higher levels, such as the 925 or 850hPa temperature for the whole Arctic, like in the NSIDC chart in my previous post, can give a better idea of the actual temperatures. I would have used the ncep reanalysis data to show this, but the sites are offline unfortunately.

 

Yes it isn't a homogenous dataset, if you look at the graph for 2002 though showing the same trends there are large discrepancies between the ECMWF and NWP data.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2002.png

[lorenzo]

Huge amount of material on this blog relating to Arctic Sea Ice and many other related subjects.

 

http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/

 

[feb1991blizzard]

They hate that, just to forewarn you. 

 

Shetland islands.

[Interitus]

Thanks. I have sen them floating about for a while now but didn't know where the site was.

 

Some the charts seem quite good but by their own analysis the skill scores tend to be quite low for higher latitudes.

 

The author is one of the contributors to the CPC Monthly Climate Review which is an interesting collection of powerpoint presentations - http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/CPC-MCR/

and in the April 2013 edition he poses a "Why -ve (N)AO?" quiz which shows what they are considering -

 

Finally: recent cold? why

Six all time record negative AO values 2009-present. Why?. 

What causes –ve (N)AO: A list of “reasonsâ€

-) sea-ice disappears in NH  (it grows in SH)

-) following a sudden stratospheric warming

-) following volcanic eruption

-) during a quiet sun (indeed we had a very long minimum, and presently a weak cycle 24)

-) audience can pitch in…….please

 

I like the last point!

[Skyraker]

                                                                nice 

 

 

If you like wind and rain.

[Yarmy]

 

Some the charts seem quite good but by their own analysis the skill scores tend to be quite low for higher latitudes.

 

The author is one of the contributors to the CPC Monthly Climate Review which is an interesting collection of powerpoint presentations - http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/CPC-MCR/

and in the April 2013 edition he poses a "Why -ve (N)AO?" quiz which shows what they are considering -

 

Finally: recent cold? why

Six all time record negative AO values 2009-present. Why?. 

What causes –ve (N)AO: A list of “reasonsâ€

-) sea-ice disappears in NH  (it grows in SH)

-) following a sudden stratospheric warming

-) following volcanic eruption

-) during a quiet sun (indeed we had a very long minimum, and presently a weak cycle 24)

-) audience can pitch in…….please

 

I like the last point!

 

 

Is that right? How long have they been measuring?

[feb1991blizzard]

If you like wind and rain.

Its changed, I think its changed twice, some sort of en Easterly, followed by an undercutter.

[Skyraker]

Its changed, I think its changed twice, some sort of en Easterly, followed by an undercutter.

 

 

Ah ok, I wasn't trying to be jaffa cakesy with him,  just point it out.

[Interitus]

Is that right? How long have they been measuring?

 

Yes using the NOAA data since 1950, not all winter months mind -

 

June 2009

July 2009

October 2009

December 2009

February 2010

March 2013

[Yarmy]

Yes using the NOAA data since 1950, not all winter months mind -

 

June 2009

July 2009

October 2009

December 2009

February 2010

March 2013

 

That is remarkable. Especially 2009.

[forecaster]

 

Some the charts seem quite good but by their own analysis the skill scores tend to be quite low for higher latitudes.

 

 

 

 

Yes, in terms of temperature it got Winter 2009/2010 terribly wrong:

 

http://gyazo.com/b1d57601e33e9c8b4ab665b43d309142

 

And what actually happened: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Europe_Temperature_Map_2009-12.png

 

It also never even improved during December, when the cold weather had already started.

 

An interesting tool for sure, but often with things like this their limitations get ignored, sometimes intentionally! 

[syed2878]

regarding the cfs from what i've been reading its good for trend spotting. Also noaa uses that model in their forecast and i dont think any publick services do use cfs to make their forecast and plans. As for james madden he forecasts a siberian winter for the u.k every year, 1day he will be rite. As for october snow i had snow cover in 28th october 2008 wich stayed just under 2day's here in aston at a hight of 99m.

[Conor Sherwin]

Its changed, I think its changed twice, some sort of en Easterly, followed by an undercutter.

thanks 

[Conor Sherwin]

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=4&pagenumber=2

love to live in scotland