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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

What do you mean in Business. Do you mean we could see snow soon? 

 

 

So we aren't in Business then if we have to wait over 1 month.

 

Posted Image

 

 

WE'RE IN BUSINESS! DEFILADE! OTHER SIDE OF THE HOLE!

Edited by bobbydog
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Sea surface temperatures over the western Artic have been consistently above average as this animation shows

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php

 

Would this extra heat aid the development of snow west into Western  Russia , Scandinavia ?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

is the cfs working 4 u guys its not 4 me and if you no y its not help please Posted Image

 

YES.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

And were the 18z from the 6th October (the latest update) to verify, never mind a well above October CET, we would be looking at a well below average October and the only thing that would stop it from being record breaking would be the week just gone!!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

 

Sorry folks, but this summer the temps in the Arctic were only average/slightly below average.

 

Posted Image

 

Anyway, what counts is the amount of sea ice, because that dictates how much extra ocean is available to absorb the suns energy, which then gets released during the Autumn/Winter refreeze and may change the meridional temperature gradient enough to influence the jet stream.

This year was still the 6th lowest sea ice cover on record, so plenty of extra open ocean to absorb that heat.

 

Much of the high latitudes still have some well above average SSTS

Posted Image

 

And the DMI 80N temperature shows things moving above average as soon as the refreeze began, due to the ocean heat release.

Posted Image

 

Unfortunately, the ncep sites are largely off line due to the US gov shutdown, so lots of important data are inaccessible. But it seems, while not as strongly as recent years, that the reduced thermal gradient/meandering jet stream theory could still have an effect.

 

We also need to take into account the stratospheric impact of reduced sea, as researched by Jaiser et al. here:

Stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes

 

And the other work done by Cohen et al. (of the Snow Advance Index) here (PDF):

 

BFTV, that shows summer arctic below average for most of the summer?  Never mind right now, but the summer was cold???  Thats what I can see anyway, but thanks for all the other stuff too for the record, helpful to all, 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Sea surface temperatures over the western Artic have been consistently above average as this animation shows

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php

 

Would this extra heat aid the development of snow west into Western  Russia , Scandinavia ?

Interesting how SST anomalies are so high, Is this a rare thing?

 

30 days ago, 4C+ above the norm

 

Posted Image

 

Even today there well above average;

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Whats the difference between E1, E2 and E3 for these charts?

 

E3 above these are E1 and E2

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Here is the link SS which explains how it operates.

 

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

just saw this posted by JOE B on twitter it says 2015 not sure if that's right but looks good

 

post-18233-0-37893500-1381177580_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

OK, now that is beyond good, borderline worrying Posted Image !

 

Try a 1070mb Greeny a few days later then.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex

He's not the only one. Another forecaster has predicted a devastating storm between the 21-23 for Scotland and Northern england.

Who was this forecaster who predicted a devestating storm for Northern England and Scotland. A link to his forecast please??
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

He's not the only one. Another forecaster has predicted a devastating storm between the 21-23 for Scotland and Northern england.

Yes there is expected to be a very stormy period latter part of Oct, prob last 3rd.  Cat 2/3 hurricane? hats off to him for such a 'bold' forecast as a possible 'unusual' event is possible end of month but hurricane?...was that term really used? ? ? ? I'm certainly sitting up and watching and I've done some prep work on my fence as its IMO going to get 'lively' Posted Image

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent

probably James Madden. it might cost you £9.99 to view his forecast. http://www.exactaweather.com/

 

but if you really want to see weather related fiction, 'The Day After Tomorrow' is only £2.94 on Amazon.......

No not Madden, he has more credabilty than him.

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Posted
  • Location: Abrdn/Dund, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sun or snow, nothing in between.
  • Location: Abrdn/Dund, UK

Snow forecasted by Netweather for tomorrow, on the mountains of Scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

joe bxstardi tweeted this:

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/387308928733687808/photo/1

 

which is an analogue for the winter (I think it's the winter coming - although for some reason it says DJF 2015?!).  It shows a reasonably chilly setup for the UK - again UK likely to be on the edge of the cold this winter - possibly in the battlezone between mild and cold. I guess, the key point to take though is that the SSTs are currently favouring a higher than average pressure pattern to our North.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/05/noaa-sends-hidden-messages-in-forecast-discussion/

PS

Sad what's happening over there at the moment.

Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

joe bxstardi tweeted this:

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/387308928733687808/photo/1

 

which is an analogue for the winter (I think it's the winter coming - although for some reason it says DJF 2015?!).  It shows a reasonably chilly setup for the UK - again UK likely to be on the edge of the cold this winter - possibly in the battlezone between mild and cold. I guess, the key point to take though is that the SSTs are currently favouring a higher than average pressure pattern to our North.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/05/noaa-sends-hidden-messages-in-forecast-discussion/

PS

Sad what's happening over there at the moment.

That is a projection on this winters proposed H5 anomalies based on the current SST pattern and is very similar to last month's projection. Interestingly the increased heights in the Bering sea region and weak Greenland to Scandi increases fit in very nicely with similar analog years.

 

 

Has anyone got the link to the web page that this projection comes from ( not Joe B's) Thanks in advance.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

I'm hoping for more robust heights positioned over Greenland this coming winter. From an IMBY perspective I don't want to see the main pulse of the height anomalies over Scandinavia as we saw last year.

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