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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Spring Weather Discussion

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

I wonder if there is a correlation between a massive Greenland block in mid October favourably orientated and a massive dumping a few days later.

 

 

 

Posted Image


Here she comes!!!

 

 

Posted Image

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

I wonder if there is a correlation between a massive Greenland block in mid October favourably orientated and a massive dumping a few days later.

 

 

 

Posted Image

Here she comes!!!

 

 

Posted Image

that's gfs tonights gfs aswell intresting stuff exciting to

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

Surely not, I don't think on this run but if we could get the low in the atlantic to dig south or even eject a shortwave south, something to link with the low heights and cold air over  Scandinavia / Russia, we could be in business.

 

Posted Image

 

Definitely not this run now but interesting.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

that's gfs tonights gfs aswell intresting stuff exciting to

all that cool air is coming right at us now this could be big event for October.

if it happens

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Surely not, I don't think on this run but if we could get the low in the atlantic to dig south or even eject a shortwave south, something to link with the low heights and cold air over  Scandinavia / Russia, we could be in business.

 

Posted Image

 

Definitely not this run now but interesting.

 

Jet looking good for that!!!

 

Posted Image

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

What do you mean in Business. Do you mean we could see snow soon? 

 

Unlikely but the longer that Greenland block stays there, the better the chance, I wouldn't completely rule out snow for the rest of October, put it this way, looking at current output, IMO there is a greater than usual chance, still probably odds against though if im hones, what we need it those bright yellows over Greenland to stay there for as long as possible in order to get a long fetch of cold air down from the North East, and we need to see it on all the models happening.

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

surely all this northern blocking and cold snap is a little to soon id rather all this was happening around end of November surely this could have a neg effect for the rest of winter.

If you think that then you must know the answer to how long is a piece of string.
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

So we aren't in Business then if we have to wait over 1 month.

 

 

So if someone said now that these building blocks were going to provide an absolute belting in mid November, you wouldn't be happy?

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

If only Posted Image lol

Posted Image

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simshady Community Regular

simshady

Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
Posted

If only Posted Image lol

Posted Image

Yes please..lol :)

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

No of course I would but when someone says 'we are in business' I think to myself that there is going to be a good sharp cold snap next week. Not in 1 month.

 

there is a good sharp cold snap coming, relative to October averages.

 

Posted Image

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted (edited)

So we aren't in Business then if we have to wait over 1 month.

 

 

Trends and background signals smithy - hang tight and welcome to the roller-coaster ride Posted Image  I have booked my ticket and stocked up on the Valium!  

Edited by P-M
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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

right i have tried looking for the post on this thread but cant find it but I remember someone posting videos of some young guy giving his forecast of what we might see in the run up and during winter where he was predicting a CAT 2-3 hurricane during October and we all had a laugh at him.

 

whats the bets the wee man is sitting at home having kittens just now with the recent GFS run lol

 

post-18233-0-92437200-1381168914_thumb.ppost-18233-0-58103000-1381168929_thumb.ppost-18233-0-40873400-1381168938_thumb.ppost-18233-0-75657500-1381168947_thumb.p

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted (edited)

Tasty chart for December from the CFS ensembles.

 

Posted Imageglbz700MonInd3.gif

 

 

Updated CFS going strongly for northern blocking in December,with some blue temperature anomalies appearing over the UK.

 

Note the "warmth" over Greenland.

 

 

 

Going to save these charts over the coming weeks to see how it pans out.

Edited by Cloud 10
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Updated CFS going strongly for northern blocking in December,with some blue temperature anomalies appearing over the UK.

 

Note the "warmth" over Greenland.

 

Posted Imagecfsdecember2.gif Posted Imagecfsdecembertemps.gif

 

 

Going to save these charts over the coming weeks to see how it pans out.

 

Whats the difference between E1, E2 and E3 for these charts?

 

E3 above these are E1 and E2

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

right i have tried looking for the post on this thread but cant find it but I remember someone posting videos of some young guy giving his forecast of what we might see in the run up and during winter where he was predicting a CAT 2-3 hurricane during October and we all had a laugh at him.

 

whats the bets the wee man is sitting at home having kittens just now with the recent GFS run lol

 

Posted Imagegfs-0-312.pngPosted Imagegfs-0-324.pngPosted Imagegfs-0-336.pngPosted Imagegfs-0-348.png

 

 

month too soon, but last 2 remind me of the snowfest 19-20 Nov 1996, but this is too early and thankfully its deep FI

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Due South Contributor

Due South

Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent
Posted

right i have tried looking for the post on this thread but cant find it but I remember someone posting videos of some young guy giving his forecast of what we might see in the run up and during winter where he was predicting a CAT 2-3 hurricane during October and we all had a laugh at him.

 

whats the bets the wee man is sitting at home having kittens just now with the recent GFS run lol

 

Posted Imagegfs-0-312.pngPosted Imagegfs-0-324.pngPosted Imagegfs-0-336.pngPosted Imagegfs-0-348.png

He's not the only one. Another forecaster has predicted a devastating storm between the 21-23 for Scotland and Northern england.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Whats the difference between E1, E2 and E3 for these charts?

 

E3 above these are E1 and E2

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Different data fed in, I think but don't quote me on this, E3 is the most recent in terms of starting conditions.

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cooling climate Aficionado

cooling climate

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

From a personel point of view I am encouraged to see a portion of the

PV setting up shop over northern central/western Russia which ties in

with my long range attempt for winter 13/14.Hopefully the other main

segment will align somewhere between Hudsons bay and south east Canada

with high latitude blocking between the two.

Of course everything could change but having forcast a severe winter

ahead with a predominantly -AO and -NAO the synoptics being shown by

the models at the moment are I think a very good sign of things to come.

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