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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread


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The latest Netweather NCEP remain consistent for winter so far by keeping temperatures average or slightly above for the bulk of us only parts of Scotland have slightly below average temperatures for the 3 months a small part of eastern England is below average for December but that's it for the UK

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

December continues to look the driest month especially for the south

 

So once again the NCEP charts are suggesting a mild winter for most with the only exception parts of Scotland

 

:)

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The latest Netweather NCEP remain consistent for winter so far by keeping temperatures average or slightly above for the bulk of us only parts of Scotland have slightly below average temperatures for the 3 months a small part of eastern England is below average for December but that's it for the UK

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

December continues to look the driest month especially for the south

 

So once again the NCEP charts are suggesting a mild winter for most with the only exception parts of Scotland

 

Posted Image

 

Looking at them charts there is more green than any other colour. Suggesting average?. Obviously there would be colder and milder interludes as in any other winter. Don't know where you get a mild winter from?

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Looking at them charts there is more green than any other colour. Suggesting average?. Obviously there would be colder and milder interludes as in any other winter. Don't know where you get a mild winter from?

 

Bits of yellow across part of the north for all 3 winter months would give some there a fairly mild winter and parts of the south could come in slightly above average as well

 

What is clear at the moment there is a standoff between CFS which keeps hinting at a cool winter http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfse_cartes.php&act=url

 

Then we have CFS V2 which is average - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/euT2me1Sea.html - and Netweather's NCEP which is average to slightly above for England, wales and parts of Scotland

Edited by Summer Sun
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Bits of yellow across part of the north for all 3 winter months would give some there a fairly mild winter and parts of the south could come in slightly above average as well

 

What is clear at the moment there is a standoff between CFS which keeps hinting at a cool winter http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfse_cartes.php&act=url

 

Then we have CFS V2 which is average - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/euT2me1Sea.html - and Netweather's NCEP which is average to slightly above for England, wales and parts of Scotland

 

Yeah but you can't pull out small bits of yellow and call it a mild winter for most lol, thats like me pulling out bits of blue and calling it a below average winter for most cos it just wouldn't be true.

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KaBLAAM!!   And I'm back once more for the winter madness!!!  Posted Image

 

Hopes:  Snow and lots of it.  

Gut Feeling:  We are in a trend of cooler than average winters with the odd mild one for the foreseeable future. 

This year?  EPIC COLD & SNOW!  (IMO - not based on any data)

 

 

Hey folks, I'm baaaaack. So I do think we are in the pattern of one mild winter in three atm.(So a reversal of the awful 90's drudgery) If you take the last 4/5 winters in a row into account, then I think, from memory, only one was a damp squib with the others having at the minimum, a 2 - 4 week arctic blast for the majority of the country at some point. These patterns are cyclical and there have been periods throughout history where colder winters become dominant for period of time, then milder, then colder etc... 

 

The Solar Max has been utterly mince and I believe we've passed the peak. So if you're an advocate for solar influence like me, then we could be heading for another cold one. However, I'm unsure how much lag there is between solar weather and observable effects here on earth. 

 

How will the recent summer influence our winter? Well, while it was fab to have a decent summer longer that two weeks for the first time in years, I reckon that's down to law of probability rather than any developing trend.

 

Soooo, these are my thoughts, make of them what you will.

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Yeah but you can't pull out small bits of yellow and call it a mild winter for most lol, thats like me pulling out bits of blue and calling it a below average winter for most cos it just wouldn't be true.

 

 

Yeah but you can't pull out small bits of yellow and call it a mild winter for most lol, thats like me pulling out bits of blue and calling it a below average winter for most cos it just wouldn't be true.

Add to that how Gavin is being selective when using the CFS V2 model. Posted Image

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Add to that how Gavin is being selective when using the CFS V2 model. Posted Image

 

You say selective but CFS V2 for winter is showing an average winter parts of eastern Europe could be above average

 

This is the 3 different possibilities for winter as a whole

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

And now the 3 different possibilities for individual winter months

 

1st

 

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2nd

 

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3rd

 

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Only one of those charts goes for a below average month in parts of Scotland other than that the UK is average to slightly above in the south at times Eastern Europe is also above average on quite a few of those charts

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You say selective but CFS V2 for winter is showing an average winter parts of eastern Europe could be above average

 

This is the 3 different possibilities for winter as a whole

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

And now the 3 different possibilities for individual winter months

 

1st

 

Posted Image

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2nd

 

Posted Image

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3rd

 

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Only one of those charts goes for a below average month in parts of Scotland other than that the UK is average to slightly above in the south at times Eastern Europe is also above average on quite a few of those charts

It's selective as in your cherry picking charts in isolation rather than using it as it should be used, which has been explained to you on a number of occasions.
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Given the fickle nature of the CFS, I think it's reasonably fair to say that any attempt at interpreting it is a form of cherry-picking? Maybe not intentional cherry-picking but cherry-picking nonetheless...Posted Image 

Any model which goes beyond +72hrs is cherry picking really Pete.
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It's selective as in your cherry picking charts in isolation rather than using it as it should be used, which has been explained to you on a number of occasio. ns.

. Agreed...cred/ jamstec etc need fully viewing,on overall trend setting,thus lrfs are complex at best.However if viewed on just that trending, imo, the overall evolve trend dare I say,..to date fruition of below av,upcoming..with, opp, for a blocked scenario!!!!

. Agreed...cred/ jamstec etc need fully viewing,on overall trend setting,thus lrfs are complex at best.However if viewed on just that trending, imo, the overall evolve trend dare I say,..to date fruition of below av,upcoming..with, opp, for a blocked scenario!!!!

that goes same for cfs, overall !!
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Given the fickle nature of the CFS, I think it's reasonably fair to say that any attempt at interpreting it is a form of cherry-picking? Maybe not intentional cherry-picking but cherry-picking nonetheless...Posted Image 

 

Any model which goes beyond +72hrs is cherry picking really Pete.

 

I'm confused now, this kind of cherry picking Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image Anyone fancy a bakewell

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Looking at those charts above, that would suggest blocking to our north and west. Ala 2009/10 and 10/11. 

Agreed. Looks like a strong signals for High to the West & North with us under a easterly flow. Thats what some of the CFS runs have been sowing lately for a while, obviously there has been runs where it looks milder. Still early days yet! 

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Looking at those charts above, that would suggest blocking to our north and west. Ala 2009/10 and 10/11. 

 

2009 /10 was cold throughout with some big falls of snow across the country I seem to remember

 

2010 / 11 was a cold start winter in December but it improved through January and more so February it was also warmer than the winter of 09 / 10 despite the bitter December

 

4.8°C below average during December (coldest December in over 100 years)

 

0.6°C below average in January

 

1.7°C above average in February.

 

The UK mean temperature for the winter of 2010 / 11 as a whole was 2.4 Â°C, making it less cold than winter 2009 / 10 which was 1.6 Â°C

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Any model which goes beyond +72hrs is cherry picking really Pete.

That's also true - I'm often guilty of it, myself - I think, however, that it's not helped by the idea that at least one of the models will verify; I've come to the conclusion that that is seldom the case?Posted Image 

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2009 /10 was cold throughout with some big falls of snow across the country I seem to remember

 

2010 / 11 was a cold start winter in December but it improved through January and more so February it was also warmer than the winter of 09 / 10 despite the bitter December

 

4.8°C below average during December (coldest December in over 100 years)

 

0.6°C below average in January

 

1.7°C above average in February.

 

The UK mean temperature for the winter of 2010 / 11 as a whole was 2.4 Â°C, making it less cold than winter 2009 / 10 which was 1.6 Â°C

I remember the netweather winter 2012/13 video forecast saying that average temps could be 3-4 below in some months.

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I remember the netweather winter 2012/13 video forecast saying that average temps could be 3-4 below in some months.

 

The coldest winter month last winter ended up -0.6 below average in February but March came in 3.0 below average at just 2.7

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Yes Gavin, the CFS v2 looks positively balmy.......Oh, hang on those red colours mean a block over Greenland, silly me.

 

post-10987-0-65662500-1378477061_thumb.p

 

P.s where you see red pixels over Greenland on those charts you posted, N blocking is being denoted-regardless of whether the UK is still shown in white or 'average'.

Edited by CreweCold
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Yes Gavin, the CFS v2 looks positively balmy.......Oh, hang on those red colours mean a block over Greenland, silly me.

 

Posted ImageN block.png

 

P.s where you see red pixels over Greenland on those charts you posted, N blocking is being denoted-regardless of whether the UK is still shown in white or 'average'.

 

 

From our point of view though we wouldn't like to see the lows tracking too far south so better if the blues were a BIT further North else we could just be a few isolated snow showers rather than an absolute ripper.

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Let's hope this Winter is filled with Bartlett highs, might be a bit quiet in here if that happens Posted Image , we can all enjoy the mildness without the shivering and sky high energy bills Posted Image

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Here is a fairly detailed look at winter from a member on the weather outlook

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postst11352_Winter-2013-14-Prospects-and-Forecasts.aspx

 

Conclusion

 

Signals are variable all rather weakened suggesting a near average winter. It seems best to look at the trends in the CFSv2 models and  the METO probability maps before making a conclusion at the end of November!

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