Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[stewfox]

Thanks for seeing that - should have screen shot!!

 

theres your October statistic for snow falling - a big fat zero for most.......  max is 4 days for central Scotland ( hills)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/6190_1km/SnowFall_Average_1961-1990_10.gif

 

S 

 

 

Its up to 1990 ?

 

I was pleased with the two days in 2008

[feb1991blizzard]

'Its up to 1990 ?

 

I was pleased with the two days in 2008'

 

 

Their 2010 one says it will be available from 2012 but when you click on it it doesn't work.

 

Here is the 2000 one.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/7100_1km/SnowFall_Average_1971-2000_10.gif

Edited October 6, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[chionomaniac]

It would be extraordinary if at some point between now and December we didn't enter a phase of conventional zonality. The cooling at Northern latitudes and powering up of the jet are to be expected and I hope expectations are not falsely raised by blocking occurring now.Although very interesting and doubtless a factor, I think the SSW thread became too much of an obsession in the last couple of winters and we still need a multitude of factors to consider. What happened in the second half of last winter were persistent low heights over Europe and the jet just deflecting far enough South. We did end up with that exceptional March and early April pattern but IDont think any of the start experts saw that coming.

I see that you are starting your nonsense a bit earlier this year, Ian.

 

As feb 1991 correctly points out the whole winter pattern was completely disrupted by the SSW in early Jan and the effect of this was enhanced by further wave 1 breaking events in March just when it looked like the vortex was recovering. The only thing that the strat experts can be guilty of is taking their eyes off the ball as the season drew to a close.

 

If you look at the following anomaly chart it is quite easy to see how the underlying stratospheric conditions encouraged the trosposheric blocking that ensued - yes we still have a lot to learn - yet you say that the persistent low heights over Europe were the cause as if the earlier stratospheric polar blitzing that had occured had no influence at all. Yes we needed tropospheric conditions to be right but without stratospheric support March's cold outbreak would have been a complete non-starter.

 

 

 

I too expect the vortex to power up later this Autumn possibly giving a very positive AO in November but this may be counteracted by a strong Atlantic ridge at that time.

[johnholmes]

Snow in October is not rare here. I average 0.5 days

 

can we have your actual location please?

 

many thanks

[SMU]

I think if we look at things that have changed & ARE changing- these feedbacks seem to be all conspiring together to weaken the traditional seemless easterly flow of the jet-

 

The low polar ice coverage generating a weak thermal gradient- encouraging high pressure in the atlantic-

The SAI going of the scale in the last few years -

Solar Min events & of course the strat warming episodes-

 

put these together & these have POSSIBLY taken centre stage over the more usual forecasting methods for winter around El nino etc..

 

The problem is not many people have been able to put it together - especially in a winter model type formula-  interesting is the Glosea4 - that seems to be the best at the moment- with its higher modelling aspect covering the strat...

 

S

[lorenzo]

It would be extraordinary if at some point between now and December we didn't enter a phase of conventional zonality. The cooling at Northern latitudes and powering up of the jet are to be expected and I hope expectations are not falsely raised by blocking occurring now.Although very interesting and doubtless a factor, I think the SSW thread became too much of an obsession in the last couple of winters and we still need a multitude of factors to consider. What happened in the second half of last winter were persistent low heights over Europe and the jet just deflecting far enough South. We did end up with that exceptional March and early April pattern but IDont think any of the start experts saw that coming.

 

Ian, where have you been hiding, have missed your banter, here's some similar gibberish..

 

Hands up, we never expected the traditional outcome of the SSW to have any lag effect on the atmosphere at all......

 

I must have imagined the Met Office blog going up about the delayed feedback shortly after the previous 40 days of tracking it down to T-0 Hrs.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ian, where have you been hiding,

 

On the 'banned' list I presume

 

lol

[ZONE 51]

Very impressive placement and intensity of cold air for the time of year;

image.jpg

Where can I get / find the archived charts of the posted image type? access to the site but don't want to spend ages looking around to find them. Thanks! same as posted chart but for the last few years of Oct 2009-12

(link if possible please)

Edited October 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Steve Murr now has exactly the same number of like points as posts - whats the chances of that after 10262 posts!!!!

 

They do, im sure they publish days of falling snow and days of lying snow.

Cold or snow in every worded sentence?... 

 

 

Seriously he's a good poster. Going to be very exciting model watching(has started) mainly but of course not exclusively so due to the early freezing winter potential there is, and winter model watching is full of surprises!!  

Edited October 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Early indications of a cold winter of course makes cold fans get excited, and get more into the model output for many. Now is the time when I myself starts getting into things more closely like the Stratosphere watch, for example (there is a thread each year for this) 

Edited October 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Buriedundersnow]

Where can I get / find the archived charts of the posted image type? access to the site but don't want to spend ages looking around to find them. Thanks! same as posted chart but for the last few years of Oct 2009-12

(link if possible please)

 

 

GFS archive

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=1

 

ECM archives

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&archive=1

 

UKMO archives

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=6&archive=1&nh=0

 

GEM archives

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=0&archive=1

[ZONE 51]

Thanks BD plenty there to check out. i look at those sometimes (short-medium range) but use other chart/data suites usually. I need the Northern hemisphere archived charts to compare the data using overlays with colour analysis (upper temperatures) just be interesting to see what cold and warm pools were where during Oct 2010 and compare to today's (for example)

Edited October 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[smithyweather]

Apparently we are going to get the going by End of the month..

[smithyweather]

Beep bop

Edited October 7, 2013 by smithyweather

[Weather-history]

Although very interesting and doubtless a factor, I think the SSW thread became too much of an obsession in the last couple of winters and we still need a multitude of factors to consider.

Pot calling the kettle black, Ian. For you talk about an obsession after years talking about the m@dern era and people telling you there are a multitude of factors involved including me, are you really in this position to preach this message?

[Ian Brown]

Pot calling the kettle black, Ian. For you talk about an obsession after years talking about the m@dern era and people telling you there are a multitude of factors involved including me, are you really in this position to preach this message?

I think I am kev yes, the period 88 to 09 was the most remarkable period since records started being kept and you are well aware of this.What I'm saying principally is that our islands are so positioned that we cannot make assumptions about the impact of such SSW events, the blocking may be in the wrong place.

[Jonan92]

90% of coldies would be satisfied with this map

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

90% of coldies would be satisfied with this map

 

 

 

 

Yes, that's a stonker for Spain as well as the UK, really fridgid upper air pattern there.

[MR EXTREMES]

I think I am kev yes, the period 88 to 09 was the most remarkable period since records started being kept and you are well aware of this.What I'm saying principally is that our islands are so positioned that we cannot make assumptions about the impact of such SSW events, the blocking may be in the wrong place.

it certainly was ian higher solar activity a jet stream that tracked much futher north and also the fact the strat was not taken as seriously as it is in the last few years that seriously that all the models have a strat warming data fed into them so yes the stratospheric outputs inputs are very important indeed along with other major drivers.

but ian its nice to see the ukmo take the strat very seriously to so obsession no its important part of our atmosphere.

[Interitus]

Although very interesting and doubtless a factor, I think the SSW thread became too much of an obsession in the last couple of winters and we still need a multitude of factors to consider. What happened in the second half of last winter were persistent low heights over Europe and the jet just deflecting far enough South. We did end up with that exceptional March and early April pattern but IDont think any of the start experts saw that coming.

 

Whilst the severity of the cold spell and degree of -ve NAO was difficult to foresee from analogues and previous data, the cold March was not totally unexpected and the SSW in January almost certainly played a role in this and the patterns in the second half of the winter. If you go back and read the strat thread it all played out as expected.

Here is a post from the In Depth Model thread in February where the trends are laid bare, with trend towards a cold March based upon the similarity of SSW leading to the cold March of 2006 - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-model-discussion-analysis-and-summaries/page-109#entry2618709

[Yarmy]

90% of coldies would be satisfied with this map

 

 

 

Nah, those -20 850hPa temps are too far South. The -16s are only just touching IMBY.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think if we look at things that have changed & ARE changing- these feedbacks seem to be all conspiring together to weaken the traditional seemless easterly flow of the jet-

 

The low polar ice coverage generating a weak thermal gradient- encouraging high pressure in the atlantic-

The SAI going of the scale in the last few years -

Solar Min events & of course the strat warming episodes-

 

put these together & these have POSSIBLY taken centre stage over the more usual forecasting methods for winter around El nino etc..

 

The problem is not many people have been able to put it together - especially in a winter model type formula-  interesting is the Glosea4 - that seems to be the best at the moment- with its higher modelling aspect covering the strat...

 

S

Steve, a point of interest, this arctic summer has been 'cold' [well below normal this summer] and thus a decent thermal gradient one would think should be in place?...but we are not seeing a strong jet in the sense that is not flat and continues to be meridional and disrupted and generally further south [a march and set up that I see continuing]. 

I concur with the change and continued changing times. 

What is playing on my mind upto now is that we have had some serious cold outbreaks but for me not one that has made me say 'that was a hell of a winter'.  A hell of a wintry period yes.  With the momentum established now on the change and it being visually and tangibly apparent, 'one hell of a winter' IMO must be within reach.  For me, last March and its extremity marked another step change.

 

BFTP

[UV-RAY]

The correlation between summer ice and the following winter is a weak one too say the least and like Blast says this year temp 80 degree north have seen well below average temps, we also have to remember the state of the ice pack prior to its rapid decline what was the causation for some of our past very cold spells. There is still far more research needed in this field and as of yet I still feel we are fumbling in the dark for an answer.

[Interitus]

 

The correlation between summer ice and the following winter is a weak one too say the least

 

 

Is it?

I posted some correlations recently between September ice extent (source ArcticROOS) since 1979 and Eurasian winter snow extent  since 1972 (source Rutgers snow lab) which shows a moderate to strong -ve correlation of -0.63 ie less summer ice is followed by more winter snow - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77585-snow-and-ice-in-the-northern-hemisphere-201314/page-15#entry2795836

 

 

Here in order are the top 10 lowest ice years and their Eurasian winter snow ranks

	Winter snow rank2012	32007	72011	42008	292010	52009	62005	92002	22006	392003	28

The missing 3 snowiest years were number 8 which was 2004 which just missed out on low ice at number 12;

1985 at number 10 was 23rd in ice table and snowiest year 1977 was before ice data available.

Edited October 7, 2013 by Interitus

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sorry folks, but this summer the temps in the Arctic were only average/slightly below average.

 

 

Anyway, what counts is the amount of sea ice, because that dictates how much extra ocean is available to absorb the suns energy, which then gets released during the Autumn/Winter refreeze and may change the meridional temperature gradient enough to influence the jet stream.

This year was still the 6th lowest sea ice cover on record, so plenty of extra open ocean to absorb that heat.

 

Much of the high latitudes still have some well above average SSTS

 

And the DMI 80N temperature shows things moving above average as soon as the refreeze began, due to the ocean heat release.

 

Unfortunately, the ncep sites are largely off line due to the US gov shutdown, so lots of important data are inaccessible. But it seems, while not as strongly as recent years, that the reduced thermal gradient/meandering jet stream theory could still have an effect.

 

We also need to take into account the stratospheric impact of reduced sea, as researched by Jaiser et al. here:

Stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes

 

And the other work done by Cohen et al. (of the Snow Advance Index) here (PDF):

Warm Arctic, cold continents: A common pattern related to Arctic sea ice melt, snow advance, and extreme winter weather

Edited October 7, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid