Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[feb1991blizzard]

Looks like a +QBO this winter. It'd be interesting if someone could confirm for me (with stats) that although SSWs are correlated to a -QBO, some of the harshest historic winter periods have occurred during a +QBO?

 

Yes, nailed on +QBO this winter.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think any year we need it to be running above average.

 

Yes I don't think there will be much forcing from elsewhere so seems fairly crucial to me at this juncture. It does open the possibility to a certain pattern dominating for an extended period of time though......which could be the reason the CFS (when it goes for the -NAO) stretches the scenario across several months. If we do go into the freezer it could be for some time.

Edited September 3, 2013 by CreweCold

[Yarmy]

I think any year we need it to be running above average.

Wasn't Nov 2012 characterised by a very cold strat, yet we were a hair-breadth away from a monster Easterly in Dec?

[Gaz1985]

I hope we get a Winter with strong wholesome Bartlett pressure influencing us - keeping things nice and dry too, I don't mind the odd rare frosty morning as long as it warms up enough to be classed as "mild" for the remainder of the day 

[lorenzo]

Just some thoughts on everything and then some more needed to have a decent stab at Winter, some are background factors , others more active throughout the season.

 

Solar Cycle – Sunspot Count (SC24)

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Quasi – Biennial Oscillation (QBO)

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Arctic Ozone Transport – Brewer Dobson Circulation (BDC)

Arctic Sea Ice

Teleconnections – Arctic Oscillation (AO) / North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Global Wind Oscillation (GWO)

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Eurasian Snow Cover Variability

Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)

 

Then our usual suspects...

 

The Russian High - certain to create absolute crayola output at some point, with even the ECM not immune from it's charms

Polar Vortex Location - and more importantly the fragments of vortex ( roguee Atlantic fragment last Winter threw the Met Office).

The Greenland Jet Shredder - one for the nail biting frame by frame runs and the odd ms-2 stuffing things up.

The Bartlett - or the Pseudo Bartlett what ever that was !

The Scandi High - friend or foe - will it put up and stay up.

The Beast from the East - can it emulate it's Kaiser Soze feat of tricking 40 /52 ensemble members again.

Scupperers - can appear from anywhere at anytime without any valid reason or explanation.

 

Mind Boggling !

 

 

 

 

 

[weatherguy]

I hope we get a Winter with strong wholesome Bartlett pressure influencing us - keeping things nice and dry too, I don't mind the odd rare frosty morning as long as it warms up enough to be classed as "mild" for the remainder of the day 

 

 

May want to keep those opinions to yourself in a month or so, or things could get hostile   The very mention of the B word could cause the formation of a lynch mob! 

 

Remember, we don't need 1050mb highs to bring us the goods as January this year showed. Just enough of a deflection S of the jet (forced by even weak height rises in the right places) and a cold pool backing west.

 

 

May need to brush up on my terminology again before the winter is upon us, but I recall the main factor being the SSW and associated negative mean zonal winds effectively making the LP systems run out of steam by the time they hit our relatively weak scandi high, which deflected them south and forced the repeated undercutting sagas? 

 

Don't think I can recall such a weak block (on the face of it) withstanding such an assault for such a long period of time...I also recall the GFS trying to flatten it at 5 days out, only to then be showing the same thing at 5 days out, with T+0 remaining unchanged synoptically speaking!

Edited September 3, 2013 by weatherguy

[Thundery wintry showers]

Feb 2008 wasn't terrible - cool nights, mild days, we even had an ice day with freezing fog and a bit of snow. But it was quite uneventful for the most part.

Regional variation will of course play a part, but I found Feb 2008 very enjoyable down in Norwich- we had a snowfall on the night of the 1st which resulted in snowball fights aplenty across the UEA campus, while the centrepiece of the month was the anticyclonic spell from the 8th-20th.  The first half of the spell had warm sunny days (up as high as 15-16C on one of the days) and chilly nights with some patchy fog, then following an 18-hour incursion of stratocumulus from the North Sea, the second half was colder, with frosty nights and some stunning sunsets.  Here's the sunset that I had on the evening of the 18th February 2008:

I remember being somewhat disappointed on the evening of the 20th when it all had to end.

 

This was the weird sunset that I remembered from the anticyclonic interlude in mid-January 2012:

[cheese]

February 2008 in Church Fenton:

 

 

It was really quite unusual going from -8C to 6C on the same day.

Edited September 3, 2013 by cheese

[lorenzo]

Looks like a +QBO this winter. It'd be interesting if someone could confirm for me (with stats) that although SSWs are correlated to a -QBO, some of the harshest historic winter periods have occurred during a +QBO?

 

 

Crewe, this is hot off the press - well May 2013, it's like a new album released on Monday really, in academic timelines, doesn't directly answer the question but gives information on the QBO and Solar Cycles. Trying to get hold of the full paper.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50424/abstract;jsessionid=52EF41B769F80D247CE86FA62074581A.d01t04

 

We present results from three multidecadal sensitivity experiments with time-varying solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) forcings using National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3.1). The model experiments are unique compared to earlier studies as they use time-varying forcings for the solar cycle only and the QBO, both individually and combined.

 

The results show that the annual mean solar response in the tropical upper stratosphere is independent of the presence of the QBO.

 

The response in the middle to lower stratosphere differs depending on the presence of the QBO and the solar cycle but is statistically indistinguishable in the three experiments.

 

The seasonal evolution of the solar and the combined solar-QBO signals reveals a reasonable agreement with observations only for the experiment in which both the solar cycle and the QBO forcing are present, suggesting that both forcings are important to generate the observed response.

 

More stratospheric warmings occur during solar maximum and QBO west conditions. This appears to be the result of a QBO modulation of the background zonal mean wind climatology, which modifies the solar signal.

 

Depending on the background wind, the small initial early winter solar signal in the subtropical upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere is enhanced during QBO east and diminished during QBO west conditions.

 

This consequently influences the transfer of the solar-QBO signal during winter and results in the observed differences during late winter

[Cheshire Freeze]

Crewe, this is hot off the press - well May 2013, it's like a new album released on Monday really, in academic timelines, doesn't directly answer the question but gives information on the QBO and Solar Cycles. Trying to get hold of the full paper.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50424/abstract;jsessionid=52EF41B769F80D247CE86FA62074581A.d01t04

 

We present results from three multidecadal sensitivity experiments with time-varying solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) forcings using National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3.1). The model experiments are unique compared to earlier studies as they use time-varying forcings for the solar cycle only and the QBO, both individually and combined.

 

The results show that the annual mean solar response in the tropical upper stratosphere is independent of the presence of the QBO.

 

The response in the middle to lower stratosphere differs depending on the presence of the QBO and the solar cycle but is statistically indistinguishable in the three experiments.

 

The seasonal evolution of the solar and the combined solar-QBO signals reveals a reasonable agreement with observations only for the experiment in which both the solar cycle and the QBO forcing are present, suggesting that both forcings are important to generate the observed response.

 

More stratospheric warmings occur during solar maximum and QBO west conditions. This appears to be the result of a QBO modulation of the background zonal mean wind climatology, which modifies the solar signal.

 

Depending on the background wind, the small initial early winter solar signal in the subtropical upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere is enhanced during QBO east and diminished during QBO west conditions.

 

This consequently influences the transfer of the solar-QBO signal during winter and results in the observed differences during late winter

 

Brilliant, thanks. I doubt whether our current cycle max could be construed as a typical max though. I think this one is going to be a tough call right up until the winter starts.

[Daniel Finch]

Great thread and one I'll be watching fairly closely. A repeat of 2009 / 2010 would be perfect. I hate cloudy/wet winters. 

Edited September 4, 2013 by snowwatchGB

[chionomaniac]

Crewe, this is hot off the press - well May 2013, it's like a new album released on Monday really, in academic timelines, doesn't directly answer the question but gives information on the QBO and Solar Cycles. Trying to get hold of the full paper.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50424/abstract;jsessionid=52EF41B769F80D247CE86FA62074581A.d01t04

 

We present results from three multidecadal sensitivity experiments with time-varying solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) forcings using National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3.1). The model experiments are unique compared to earlier studies as they use time-varying forcings for the solar cycle only and the QBO, both individually and combined.

 

The results show that the annual mean solar response in the tropical upper stratosphere is independent of the presence of the QBO.

 

The response in the middle to lower stratosphere differs depending on the presence of the QBO and the solar cycle but is statistically indistinguishable in the three experiments.

 

The seasonal evolution of the solar and the combined solar-QBO signals reveals a reasonable agreement with observations only for the experiment in which both the solar cycle and the QBO forcing are present, suggesting that both forcings are important to generate the observed response.

 

More stratospheric warmings occur during solar maximum and QBO west conditions. This appears to be the result of a QBO modulation of the background zonal mean wind climatology, which modifies the solar signal.

 

Depending on the background wind, the small initial early winter solar signal in the subtropical upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere is enhanced during QBO east and diminished during QBO west conditions.

 

This consequently influences the transfer of the solar-QBO signal during winter and results in the observed differences during late winter

Spooky - I too read that paper yesterday evening!

[Summer Sun]

Looks like an SSW has occurred in the southern hemisphere which is rare - http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/another-stratospheric-warming-event-ssw-in-the-southern-hemisphere-august-2013/

[Radiating Dendrite]

Looks like an SSW has occurred in the southern hemisphere which is rare - http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/another-stratospheric-warming-event-ssw-in-the-southern-hemisphere-august-2013/

 

One of these occurred not too long ago.

 

Seems to be a more regular occurrence - does that have any effect on the Northern Hemisphere Vortex further down the line? Ozone transportation etc? 

[Dancerwithwings]

One of these occurred not too long ago.

 

Seems to be a more regular occurrence - does that have any effect on the Northern Hemisphere Vortex further down the line? Ozone transportation etc? 

You can see the SSW in the southern hemisphere better with animation but also watch the Northern Hemisphere.

[chionomaniac]

You can see the SSW in the southern hemisphere better with animation but also watch the Northern Hemisphere.

 I think that this animation gives the viewer some visualisation of how long wave length waves hit the stratosphere. Ok, we are only seeing the temperature differential but one can see how the wave 1 number grows across the Antartic strat. Previously cold strat antarctic temperatures are being removed and displaced northwards into the tropical strat which will have the net effect of cooling these areas. I suspect that the slight warming in the NH is reciprocal wave activity.

[cheeky_monkey]

 

Just some thoughts on everything and then some more needed to have a decent stab at Winter, some are background factors , others more active throughout the season.

 

Solar Cycle – Sunspot Count (SC24)

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Quasi – Biennial Oscillation (QBO)

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Arctic Ozone Transport – Brewer Dobson Circulation (BDC)

Arctic Sea Ice

Teleconnections – Arctic Oscillation (AO) / North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Global Wind Oscillation (GWO)

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Eurasian Snow Cover Variability

Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)

 

Then our usual suspects...

 

The Russian High - certain to create absolute crayola output at some point, with even the ECM not immune from it's charms

Polar Vortex Location - and more importantly the fragments of vortex ( roguee Atlantic fragment last Winter threw the Met Office).

The Greenland Jet Shredder - one for the nail biting frame by frame runs and the odd ms-2 stuffing things up.

The Bartlett - or the Pseudo Bartlett what ever that was !

The Scandi High - friend or foe - will it put up and stay up.

The Beast from the East - can it emulate it's Kaiser Soze feat of tricking 40 /52 ensemble members again.

Scupperers - can appear from anywhere at anytime without any valid reason or explanation.

 

Mind Boggling !

 

 

 

 

No one ever mentions what happens across North America as an influence on the European winter weather patterns?..obviously being upstream from you weather wise surely must have some kind of knock on effect but is rarely considered?

[Dancerwithwings]

 I think that this animation gives the viewer some visualisation of how long wave length waves hit the stratosphere. Ok, we are only seeing the temperature differential but one can see how the wave 1 number grows across the Antartic strat. Previously cold strat antarctic temperatures are being removed and displaced northwards into the tropical strat which will have the net effect of cooling these areas. I suspect that the slight warming in the NH is reciprocal wave activity.

I thought any warming if only slight in the Northern Hemisphere would in hibernation and not seen untill winter, Is that unusual for this time of year

and would it have any knock on effects for this forthcoming winter ?

[chionomaniac]

I thought any warming if only slight in the Northern Hemisphere would in hibernation and not seen untill winter, Is that unusual for this time of year

and would it have any knock on effects for this forthcoming winter ?

 The southern Hemisphere warming is unusual as there has been only one SH SSW - what is occurring stratospherically now I don't think will have any direct influence on winter as there is still a lot of water to flow under the bridge before we reach stratospheric winter.

 

CM. - downstream effects are important but I am a firm believer that what occurs downstream only does so because of the bigger picture teleconnection puzzle that Lorenzo has highlighted.

 

 

This winter there are certain teleconnective jigsaw pieces that are already in place - however, we need to wait some time before the majority can give us some kind of guidance.

Edited September 4, 2013 by chionomaniac

[feb1991blizzard]

Would an SSW in the Southern hemisphere not be accompanied by higher than average ozone levels and could this not mean there is not as much ozone to transport to the Northern hemisphere during the autumn via the BDC and could this have a negative effect on our winter?

[fUnKy]

Sorry to hear  that mate - Plymouth really is a terrible place to live if you love snow and cold. Few places are worse on the mainland.

 

I can confirm.... although i have managed to get upto the moors a few times....  but you really notice it.. heavy snow on dartmoor and as soon as you get back to Plymouth, Heavy rain.

[stewfox]

No one ever mentions what happens across North America as an influence on the European winter weather patterns?..obviously being upstream from you weather wise surely must have some kind of knock on effect but is rarely considered?

 

Not true my mother always says if its snowing in New York we will get the snow.

[cheeky_monkey]

Not true my mother always says if its snowing in New York we will get the snow.

Well Hurrahh for mother and boo sucks to the rest of you with your oscillations and ssws

[Yarmy]

Not true my mother always says if its snowing in New York we will get the snow.

 

 

Mine says the same. Mind you, it's only 40 miles up the road in Lincolnshire.

[syed2878]

i hope we don't c the repete of w2011-12 for a good few years. So peeps what r the early signole if there's any for winter apart from cfs?