Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[cooling climate]

If you look at the last 350+ years and the average CET values for Dec,Jan and Feb (DJF) the last 6 yrs haven't really been that cool.

 

The winters from 1988 to 2008 with perhaps the exception of  one or two years were on the mild side re CET for DJF

 

In fact you have to go back to 1979 before we hit a average CET below 2c for DJF and we are well over due (if you believe we are going back to average type winters). Looking at the last 130+ yrs we have.

 

1879 was 0.7c (DJF)

1891 was 1.5c (DJF)

1895 was 1.2c (DJF)

1917  was 1.5 (DJF)

1929  was 1.7c (DJF)

1940  was 1.5c (DJF)

1947 was 1.1c (DJF)

1963 was -0.3c (DJF)

1979 was 1.6c (DJF)

 

 

so for 2013/4  my punt is 1.2c for (DJF), were over due a long cold winter

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean.txt

 

41 winters with 2c or sub 2c for DJF in the CET series with 2010 the coldest in recent years (at 2.43c) comes in at just 59th coldest winter

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

 

So were due a long cold winter

 

I have posted my thoughts for the upcoming winter and am hopeful of a sub 2c DJF and

quite possibly sub 1c but you are right in what you say we are overdue a long cold (severe)

winter. The last being 78-79 and with the colder trend of the modern winters it will come as

no surprise.

The potential was there in 2009-10 to deliver a big winter, which could of so easily been

much colder but synoptics kept the worst of the winter weather away from the UK.

[Weather-history]

The potential was there in 2009-10 to deliver a big winter, which could of so easily beenmuch colder but synoptics kept the worst of the winter weather away from the UK.

Wasn't the problem for winter 2009-10 was that it was mostly a Greenland block winter? The coldest winters in the south are Scandinavian block type with an easterly flow but with winter 2009-10, it was a largely Greenland block winter and hence why the north was much colder. The synoptics did not keep the worst of the winter weather away, it was that the worst of the winter weather affected different parts of the UK.Wasn't winter 2009-10 colder than even 1962-63 for Scotland? Edited September 28, 2013 by Weather-history

[cheese]

If you look at the last 350+ years and the average CET values for Dec,Jan and Feb (DJF) the last 6 yrs haven't really been that cool.

 

The winters from 1988 to 2008 with perhaps the exception of  one or two years were on the mild side re CET for DJF

 

In fact you have to go back to 1979 before we hit a average CET below 2c for DJF and we are well over due (if you believe we are going back to average type winters). Looking at the last 130+ yrs we have.

 

1879 was 0.7c (DJF)

1891 was 1.5c (DJF)

1895 was 1.2c (DJF)

1917  was 1.5 (DJF)

1929  was 1.7c (DJF)

1940  was 1.5c (DJF)

1947 was 1.1c (DJF)

1963 was -0.3c (DJF)

1979 was 1.6c (DJF)

 

 

so for 2013/4  my punt is 1.2c for (DJF), were over due a long cold winter

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean.txt

 

41 winters with 2c or sub 2c for DJF in the CET series with 2010 the coldest in recent years (at 2.43c) comes in at just 59th coldest winter

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

 

So were due a long cold winter

We're also overdue a very cold summer month.. maybe next year.. lol.

[summer blizzard]

Wasn't the problem for winter 2009-10 was that it was mostly a Greenland block winter? The coldest winters in the south are Scandinavian block type with an easterly flow but with winter 2009-10, it was a largely Greenland block winter and hence why the north was much colder. The synoptics did not keep the worst of the winter weather away, it was that the worst of the winter weather affected different parts of the UK.Wasn't winter 2009-10 colder than even 1962-63 for Scotland?

Largely agree. For Scotland December-January 09/10 was stupendous and the coldest combination on record. In England mid-Dec to mid-Jan was incredible but it was cold rather than great afterward.

[Captain Shortwave]

As we get closer to Winter it's becoming (At least to me), more evident that more people are leaning on the side of a milder Winter, than a cold one. 

 

I recall this time last year, hardly anyone was in the Mild camp, most were speculating that a cold one was on the way and some were going for an average one. 

 

But I saw very few if any, predictions for a mild one. 

 

I (just for the record), was and still am inclined to say that I think we'll get a quite mild Winter in comparison to the past 5 or 6. It really is very unusual to have 6 cool winters back to back in the UK and for that reason alone I just can't see it being cold this Winter, but I am not saying wall to wall sunshine and warmth.

 

I think a few short lived cold snaps at best and with a fair amount of regularity in all 3 months of Winter, but the pre set I think will be for mild and wet. 

Interesting to say that. During August I was thinking we have had a definite shift in the weather patterns over the UK to a more pre 2007 climate and hence we would be set for a milder winter. But I have to admit I am in the cold camp now. Though I will wait and see how things go. From my own perspective autumn has gone how I thought it would and the CFS has been performing quite well predicting a drier and warmer end to September and was going for a drier and warmer October overall which looks like starting on good ground with the first week seeing temperatures above average with winds from the South/South west.

I think November will sure up where we are going. If it turns out to be a cold and wintry month then maybe winter will follow suit.

[bobbydog]

Wasn't the problem for winter 2009-10 was that it was mostly a Greenland block winter? The coldest winters in the south are Scandinavian block type with an easterly flow but with winter 2009-10, it was a largely Greenland block winter and hence why the north was much colder.The synoptics did not keep the worst of the winter weather away, it was that the worst of the winter weather affected different parts of the UK.Wasn't winter 2009-10 colder than even 1962-63 for Scotland?

 

wasn't really a problem, i hadn't seen snow like that (in my area) since feb 1991! we had 14" here!

[damianslaw]

As we get closer to Winter it's becoming (At least to me), more evident that more people are leaning on the side of a milder Winter, than a cold one. 

 

I recall this time last year, hardly anyone was in the Mild camp, most were speculating that a cold one was on the way and some were going for an average one. 

 

But I saw very few if any, predictions for a mild one. 

 

I (just for the record), was and still am inclined to say that I think we'll get a quite mild Winter in comparison to the past 5 or 6. It really is very unusual to have 6 cool winters back to back in the UK and for that reason alone I just can't see it being cold this Winter, but I am not saying wall to wall sunshine and warmth.

 

I think a few short lived cold snaps at best and with a fair amount of regularity in all 3 months of Winter, but the pre set I think will be for mild and wet. 

 

Winter 11/12 was hardly cold, and winter 08/09 and 10/11 ended up only just a little below average, indeed the second half of winter 10/11 was notably very mild.

 

I'm not sure about the logic we are due a mild winter.. mother nature doesn't work like that. Apart from winter 09/10 which was cold throughout after albeit a shortlived mild start in December, all our winters since 08/09 have seen notable lengthy mild spells at some point as follows:

 

Period leading up to christmas 08 was very mild and the second half of Feb 09.

Second half of winter 10/11 on the whole very mild - but we tend to forget this fact due to the exceptional cold December.

A wedge of very mild weather from just before christmas 11 through until late January 12, mild conditions quickly returned in the second half of Feb 12.

A long mild wedge mid Dec - mid Jan winter 12/13 - again quickly forgotton it seems, christmas and new year was exceptionally mild.

 

We tend to only remember the colder weather.

 

I remember thinking we were long due a cold winter between 97/98 and 08/09 - bar a couple of near average ones in 00/01, and 05/06 we had to wait a long 11 years for one - 12 if you skip winter 08/09.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

In fact I would go as far as to say that I don't think I have seen such a strong consensus ever on these forums on a cold February, numerous forecasts based upon numerous techniques have so far all pointed towards this direction - with the notable exception of RJSSK

Can you point me to Roger's early thoughts.....interesting as a solar based forecaster also sees Jan Feb being mild

 

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

At this stage I actually expect a very settled but cool mid Nov to mid Jan period (potential for ice days but probably lacking snow) before we see a colder but possibly more unsettled period from mid-Jan to mid-Feb. I do get some indications of a blowtorch in late Feb through March however.

I suppose winter 09 with a more settled start would not be dissimilar.

[Sean19]

I'm not the best at reading charts so what can you lot say from looking at this chart below?

 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/805/cfs-0-2112_fxw2.png

 

[Conor Sherwin]

I'm not the best at reading charts so what can you lot say from looking at this chart below?

 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/805/cfs-0-2112_fxw2.png

same here dont really understand but i thing its cold and NE winds but wait to later today when the pros are awake lol

[Radiating Dendrite]

That chat would be very cold at the surface.

I would not pay any attention to the CFS daily charts though. Weather models are fairly useless after 7 days nevermind three months!

[Cloud 10]

I'm not the best at reading charts so what can you lot say from looking at this chart below?

 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/805/cfs-0-2112_fxw2.png

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Yg5g_Xl-uU

[snowking]

Can you point me to Roger's early thoughts.....interesting as a solar based forecaster also sees Jan Feb being mildBFTP

This was posted over in the seasonal thread, although there is the caveat that it is just preliminary thoughts as he goes on to say:

No worries, at least we tried to fix it up. I ran the winter 2013-14 part of my research model after spending a couple of hours checking out the input (if a column in the excel file ends the factor stops chipping into the overall model). The output looks milder than any winter since 2008 anyway, but there is a cold spell in mid-January. Otherwise most of the season looks rather mild. Will do a lot more work on this forecast before October, so that's just a very preliminary thought about winter 2013-14. Posted elsewhere my thoughts on the autumn ahead.

SK

[Gavin Hannah]

I'm not the best at reading charts so what can you lot say from looking at this chart below?

 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/805/cfs-0-2112_fxw2.png

 

 

 

Windy, cold and potentially snowy. Your looking at a low pressure system right over us, pulling winds from the north.  It's a fairly typical weather system for the UK as you know, it will depend on the time of year how cold it is and what type of precipitation will fall.

 

In winter, the LP systems blast through pulling winds from the south west to start with meaning relatively mild temps and rain. As the pass by, they pull the winds from the north-east/west, bringing colder temps and snow (mostly over high ground) on their back edge. 

 

In an Atlantic driven winter, that's the typical setup you can expect to see for weeks at a time, essentially, LP system after LP system....

Edited September 29, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[Summer Sun]

The Beijing climate centre model has updated for September and its going for a mild wet winter

 

 

Rain fall looks above average in places

 

 

850 hpa temperatures are above normal

 

[picog]

The CFSv2 also looks to be going for a mild, wet winter. Starting to feel a depression coming on :—(

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me2Mon.html

Edited September 29, 2013 by picog

[Summer Sun]

The CFSv2 also looks to be going for a mild, wet winter. Starting to feel a depression coming on :—(

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me2Mon.html

 

And a potential bad sign for coldies is the blue developing over Greenland in January and February

 

Edited September 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[smithyweather]

Ok thats enough thanks.

[OllieWeather]

Don't worry, there's hope!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OllieWeather]

Here:

[Gaz1985]

I think coldies are going to be disappointed this Winter and lots of toys thrown from prams, at this stage looking a 2001-02 style Winter with a chilly December but not severe and a wet and mild January and February.

[sebastiaan1973]

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/

Some nice & interesting comments.

 

 

I think coldies are going to be disappointed this Winter and lots of toys thrown from prams, at this stage looking a 2001-02 style Winter with a chilly December but not severe and a wet and mild January and February.

 

Well just across the Northsea, in the Netherlands, februar 2012 was cold. In fact 1-10 februar were since 1917 not so cold. So with some luck this cold would have come to you as well.  

[simshady]

 

I think coldies are going to be disappointed this Winter and lots of toys thrown from prams, at this stage looking a 2001-02 style Winter with a chilly December but not severe and a wet and mild January and February.

 

 

Oh I hope you're so, so wrong..lol

[bobbydog]

And a potential bad sign for coldies is the blue developing over Greenland in January and February

 

 

 

why gavin? that just means colder. the pressure anomaly charts are going for HP over greenland

 

anyway, for those on a wind-up or whatever, what anyone "thinks" at this stage is irrelevant