Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[johnholmes]

s

so this is cold is it 

 

hi C

As well as the very good explanation you have been given, take a look in the Guides section, you may find some of the topics in there are a help. Never be afraid to ask though, there will always be someone able and happy to answer your question. Every one of us learns from others on here.

[Dancerwithwings]

 Never be afraid to ask though, there will always be someone able and happy to answer your question. Every one of us learns from others on here.

 

Cool.......Does anybody know how to make a Victoria sandwich Whoops i think i've got the wrong end of the stick ...

[cooling climate]

It's currently -ve (August was -1.04) despite the north Pacific in general being close to record warmth. What those charts show is a shift toward the more classic -ve PDO pattern with the reverse "C" of cold anomalies around the N. Pacific coasts.

Over recent months we've seen much warmer than average central N. Pacific and slightly warmer than average reverse "C", which, while not a classic -ve PDO pattern, still counts.

Much of the warmth in the north Pacific was only shallow due to the persistent high pressure in

northeast pacific and has quickly been replaced (last couple of weeks) by much colder waters

which, will probably continue.

[Cloud 10]

Looks a bit chilly over in Eastern Europe next week.

 

 

 

Early snow for some?

[Summer Sun]

Looks a bit chilly over in Eastern Europe next week.

 

ECM100-144.GIF

 

 

Early snow for some?

 

Quite possible for some parts given the low pressure down there

 

Edited September 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Allseasons-Si]

not on that chart no.

 

the wind direction there is from the west off the atlantic so warm for cold winds would need to be coming from the north, northeast or the east.

 

north

 

gfs-2010120506-0-78.png

 

northeast

 

gfs-2010112706-0-360.png

 

east

 

gfs-2010112706-0-60.png

 

hope this helps

We just need to see these charts in the reliable come the time,without the H's and L's of cause

[Conor Sherwin]

[Conor Sherwin]

 

soso wrewtretertret tertretwrt  rye rwtr ty  so this is NE winds and cold

[Conor Sherwin]

soso wrewtretertret tertretwrt  rye rwtr ty  so this is NE winds and cold

dont  no what the other stuff is i ment is THIS NE WINDS AND COLD

[Methuselah]

dont  no what the other stuff is i ment is THIS NE WINDS AND COLD

It is indeed, Conor!

Edited September 28, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue
Name corrected...

[Captain Shortwave]

If only it would actually happen  

[Conor Sherwin]

It is indeed, Connor!

conor lol yes i got it right im getting there

[Buriedundersnow]

sea ice is making a good early comeback this year similar to 09 and 10 maybe even ahead of those two years let just keep our fingers crossed the winter will be similar aswell

 

 

remember aswell we are way ahead in snow cover over Siberia

 

Edited September 28, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Conor Sherwin]

If only it would actually happen  

y did the picture just change 

[Cloud 10]

y did the picture just change 

 

I assume this was what was originally posted?

 

 

 

Very tasty. 

[Summer Sun]

y did the picture just change 

 

They self update from 00z to 12z and so on

 

This far out your going to see changes every run

 

To save a chart to the forum without it self updating you need to click this button

 

 

 

Then on the link under Lien direct pour forums (1ère version - Forum Météociel) - click that and past it into your post (no need to use the image button in the editor as the tags are already in)

Edited September 28, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Conor Sherwin]

They self update from 00z to 12z and so on

 

This far out your going to see changes every run

 

To save a chart to the forum without it self updating you need to click this button

 

 

Then on the link under Lien direct pour forums (1ère version - Forum Météociel) - click that and past it into your post (no need to use the image button in the editor as the tags are already in)

ok didnt no they update on this page 

[Conor Sherwin]

cfs is going 4 a cold dec white christmas

 

[Methuselah]

Ah. Never take the CFS raw output seriously, Conor...It changes more frequently than most of us change our socks!

[Conor Sherwin]

Ah. Never take the CFS raw output seriously, Conor...It changes more frequently than most of us change our socks!

thanks for the advice 

[EML Network]

As we get closer to Winter it's becoming (At least to me), more evident that more people are leaning on the side of a milder Winter, than a cold one. 

 

I recall this time last year, hardly anyone was in the Mild camp, most were speculating that a cold one was on the way and some were going for an average one. 

 

But I saw very few if any, predictions for a mild one. 

 

I (just for the record), was and still am inclined to say that I think we'll get a quite mild Winter in comparison to the past 5 or 6. It really is very unusual to have 6 cool winters back to back in the UK and for that reason alone I just can't see it being cold this Winter, but I am not saying wall to wall sunshine and warmth.

 

I think a few short lived cold snaps at best and with a fair amount of regularity in all 3 months of Winter, but the pre set I think will be for mild and wet. 

[Methuselah]

thanks for the advice 

You're welcome... 

[stewfox]

 

I (just for the record), was and still am inclined to say that I think we'll get a quite mild Winter in comparison to the past 5 or 6. It really is very unusual to have 6 cool winters back to back in the UK and for that reason alone I just can't see it being cold this Winter, but I am not saying wall to wall sunshine and warmth.

 

I think a few short lived cold snaps at best and with a fair amount of regularity in all 3 months of Winter, but the pre set I think will be for mild and wet. 

 

 

If you look at the last 350+ years and the average CET values for Dec,Jan and Feb (DJF) the last 6 yrs haven't really been that cool.

 

The winters from 1988 to 2008 with perhaps the exception of  one or two years were on the mild side re CET for DJF

 

In fact you have to go back to 1979 before we hit a average CET below 2c for DJF and we are well over due (if you believe we are going back to average type winters). Looking at the last 130+ yrs we have.

 

1879 was 0.7c (DJF)

1891 was 1.5c (DJF)

1895 was 1.2c (DJF)

1917  was 1.5 (DJF)

1929  was 1.7c (DJF)

1940  was 1.5c (DJF)

1947 was 1.1c (DJF)

1963 was -0.3c (DJF)

1979 was 1.6c (DJF)

 

 

so for 2013/4  my punt is 1.2c for (DJF), were over due a long cold winter

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean.txt

 

41 winters with 2c or sub 2c for DJF in the CET series with 2010 the coldest in recent years (at 2.43c) comes in at just 59th coldest winter

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

 

So were due a long cold winter

Edited September 28, 2013 by stewfox

[snowking]

As we get closer to Winter it's becoming (At least to me), more evident that more people are leaning on the side of a milder Winter, than a cold one. I recall this time last year, hardly anyone was in the Mild camp, most were speculating that a cold one was on the way and some were going for an average one.

I'm not entirely sure where you have been looking at the forecasts then, because most of the preliminary forecasts I've seen on here and elsewhere online are not pointing to anything necessarily spectacular, but they are far from pointing towards mild, with a general consensus on February being likely be the coldest of the three months.In fact I would go as far as to say that I don't think I have seen such a strong consensus ever on these forums on a cold February, numerous forecasts based upon numerous techniques have so far all pointed towards this direction - with the notable exception of RJSI certainly remember seeing many more forecasts pointing to a milder winter last year than I have done this year so far.I realise this can all be rather subjective in analysis, but I wholeheartedly disagree that the current consensus points towards a mild winter.Of course though consensus offers no absolutely certainty on anything when it comes to the weather!SK Edited September 28, 2013 by snowking

[Tim Bland]

dont no what the other stuff is i ment is THIS NE WINDS AND COLD

The above is a very slack NE flow so wintry showers around eastern coasts and north of Scotland, dry and cold for 90%. Need that pattern but shift the whole lot 500 miles NE and bingo*edit* scrap that just seen the above which is what Conor refers to originally.... Now that iS bingo!! Edited September 28, 2013 by Tim Bland