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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread


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No he's not...you’re thinking of Mark Vogan (who, incidentally has good forcasting knowledge)

 

I heard once he was a Tyre fitter or something along those lines in a car garage

 

Maybe he wants to fit more winter Tyres

 

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Big Joe though has my respect as he has science and reasoning behind his forecasts and he is qualified...

 

He has not mentioned ice floes yet though Posted Image

I have to agree - Whilst Joe might be a little bit of an extremist he does tend to explain the method behind his forecasting using scientific models. Madden seems to just hit the copy and paste button and change a few details every year.

 

The trouble with people like Madden is he does get headlines from the papers & it's scare mongering. Imagine if you're a 80 year old lady living alone, pick up a paper and read "COLDEST WINTER IN 100 YEARS ON THE WAY".

Perhaps not entirely Maddens fault but I'm sure he knows what he's doing. I remember when he first made the headlines his website was full of links and images to the articles as if he was somewhat bragging about it, a serious forecaster probably wouldn't do that.

 

Madden seems to go on non-science for his forecasts. Slowing down of the gulf stream usually a main feature for him. No respect for the guy, he's a joke.

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i see there quoting netweather in an article in the expess to try and make some big story out of nothing I take it they just plucked a little bit to try and make them sound like they know what they are talking about

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/432231/Now-we-face-a-weekend-of-hail-and-storm-chaos

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i see there quoting netweather in an article in the expess to try and make some big story out of nothing I take it they just plucked a little bit to try and make them sound like they know what they are talking about

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/432231/Now-we-face-a-weekend-of-hail-and-storm-chaos

I seriously need to find out what Jonathan Powell is smoking, because that must be some good stuff Posted Image

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i see there quoting netweather in an article in the expess to try and make some big story out of nothing I take it they just plucked a little bit to try and make them sound like they know what they are talking about

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/432231/Now-we-face-a-weekend-of-hail-and-storm-chaos

 

Just wait till we get the first winter forecast on the front page tell us we are in for the coldest winter in x amount of years

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Re Joe B; he is a qualified meterologist. He's obviously a coldie at heart so his forecast are a bit biased towards cold and snow but he is usualy fairly accurate IMO

If Joe is a professional meteorologist then his own preferences shouldn't have any bearing whatsoever on any forecasts he produces.
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I found with Big Joe's forecasts that he seems to have the general weather prediction kind of right but he does not take the small geographic location of our isles into the equation enough and even at that here in Ireland we miss out on cold alot more due to our more western location to the Mainland UK

 

Being American he thinks big big big and it reflects in his forecasts!

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Joe B is a professional meteorologist, so anyone who thinks they know better than him should apply for a job at the MetO.

Not sure that any particular (nearly always incorrect) winter LRF is really that much better than any other? But, hey, I was born a sceptic!Posted Image 

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To think we had charts like that day 6/7 days out around that time last year. Let's hope for better luck this December Posted Image

 

And if we are being picky, we had things like sub 516 heights with similar surface pattern smashing as far as Ireland and then ending up back in Norway within two runs!!!

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Not sure that any particular (nearly always incorrect) winter LRF is really that much better than any other? But, hey, I was born a sceptic!Posted Image 

That I agree with Pete, I don't rate any LRF even GP's as I feel there are far too many spanners thrown into the mix.Posted Image

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And if we are being picky, we had things like sub 516 heights with similar surface pattern smashing as far as Ireland and then ending up back in Norway within two runs!!!

The one good thing about December is that you don't need the perfect set up to get the north sea snow machine going due to still having relatively high ssts. So anything like that would be fine. In February of course it might be a different story.

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feb1991blizzard - you've really been flaunting the chart p*rn around today lol...

 

To think we had charts like that day 6/7 days out around that time last year. Let's hope for better luck this December Posted Image

 

Yes, and the toys were well and truly thrown about following the subsequent retreat lol.  It became a hazard zone for a while. Posted Image

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The one good thing about December is that you don't need the perfect set up to get the north sea snow machine going due to still having relatively high ssts. So anything like that would be fine. In February of course it might be a different story.

 

Yes you don't need a massive differential as later, and I am not in the camp that says you cant get massive convection with RELATIVELY high pressure either, if pressure gradient is strong , however, from the whole country perspective, I think anything 1030 upwards precludes anything more than a few flakes, 1020 fine IMO as long as tight isobars and some sort of decent 500mb profile.

feb1991blizzard - you've really been flaunting the chart p*rn around today lol...

 

 

Yes, and the toys were well and truly thrown about following the subsequent retreat lol.  It became a hazard zone for a while. Posted Image

 

 

Its in my blood.

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