Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Gavin Hannah]

Lol, tried to use googles translator on that page..... the results we're amusing. 

[feb1991blizzard]

I hate mild gunk but Gavin is entitled to post the charts, just as I am entitled to post them when they show a stonker month, as long as he isn't misleading people and admits the are chocolate teapot brigade material just as I admit they are for fun when they show massive -ve anomalies.

[feb1991blizzard]

No Steve Murr today on MOD, anything of him today?  On a positive note though Nick Sussex is back.

[UV-RAY]

I hate mild gunk but Gavin is entitled to post the charts, just as I am entitled to post them when they show a stonker month, as long as he isn't misleading people and admits the are chocolate teapot brigade material just as I admit they are for fun when they show massive -ve anomalies.

I think Gav gets a lot of unfair stick, he wears his mild heart on his sleeve so suggesting he's on the wind up by some is uncalled for, not saying you are doing that Feb 91. That said I hope he's buried under a meter of snow this coming winter. :-)

[Dancerwithwings]

Nice post for your first .... Welcome

Edited September 23, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Yarmy]

Hey all, I'm pretty new on here but I have been a reader (lurker) for some time.  Thought I'd take take the next step and join in. Been interested in the weather ever since I was a child.  Whilst I do favour some weather types more than others, I enjoy all, bar days of uneventful dullness. I'm from the foot hills of the Snowdon mountain range in North Wales and in January of this year I experienced  more snow than I ever thought I would. Whilst some parts of the UK experienced marginal events, here in North Wales we had a blizzard that lasted nearly 18 hours. Here is a short video I created as documentation of the event.

I know many of you have probably seen more snow than what is in the video, but it is certainly the most that this area has seen during the 24 years of my life. However December of 2010 was the coldest with -12 recorded on the garden thermometer.  Video production is my line of work so any exciting weather events this winter I shall record and share with you here!

Looking forward to this winter's  "cold chase". Enough about me, to the topic at hand

It seems that France is coming out with some pretty sensationalist headlines... 

Europe will see the coldest winter in 100 years   

Is madden working for the french now? >.<

A friend of mine from France posted this on facebook, the page is French but google chrome will give you an option to translate the page into english.

http://www.eddenya.com/index.php/sante-et-sciences/3176-l-europe-connaitra-l-hiver-le-plus-froid-depuis-100-ans

Welcome to the asylum, Andy. The map on that first French link has all the names in English so I wonder where it comes from? A lot of the UK has a 0c anomaly on it, but Edinburgh is -20c as far as I can tell! Those would be some pretty weird synoptics.

[andy989]

 

Nice post for your first .... Welcome

 

Many thanks!

[feb1991blizzard]

I think Gav gets a lot of unfair stick, he wears his mild heart on his sleeve so suggesting he's on the wind up by some is uncalled for, not saying you are doing that Feb 91. That said I hope he's buried under a meter of snow this coming winter. :-)

 

Yes, although I would rather it works out for both parties, I would rather whoever wants mild carp gets it and whoever wants to be brutalised like we do to get it.

[andy989]

Welcome to the asylum, Andy. The map on that first French link has all the names in English so I wonder where it comes from? A lot of the UK has a 0c anomaly on it, but Edinburgh is -20c as far as I can tell! Those would be some pretty weird synoptics.

Thank you Yarmy, I thought the map was strange also so I right clicked on the webpage and clicked "view source". This allows you to see the "structure" of the website....turns out the map is from Wikipedia and is titled Europe temperature map 2009!!   False news by the looks of it, I thought it was interesting that other countries have their own mad(dens)ones creating headlines 

I shall double check I'm not posting false news in the future

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2d/Europe_Temperature_Map_2009-12.png

Edited September 23, 2013 by andy989

[Snowy L]

It is 

 

Full paper here : http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

 

I think that I mentioned it a week or so back after Sebastiaan linked to it, thanks for the reminder.

 

It's a big area of interest at the moment, this is a great read as well

 

http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/19375/html

 

They mention a new observation to keep an eye on, November sea ice cover over the Siberian seas. It's on a short timescale so I'm thinking could it be linked with these early season disruptions to the polar vortex that we have seen in recent years. Ice cover has been low for a decade now, but near the Barents sea (the main observation area) it's been pretty much non-existent. As far as I remember we have seen weakening of the vortex in November/December in 2009,2010 and 2012 in the last few years and these have all had very low Siberian sea ice cover, particularly 2009 and 2012.

[sebastiaan1973]

The recent figures though are interesting. If we look at recent below average Arctic ice years and above average Arctic years and compare the H500 anomalies then the winter differences are quite drastic. 

 

Years here:

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

 

Low sea Ice anomaly

 

Low sea ice Dec-Feb.png

 

 

High Sea Ice anomaly

 

 

High sea ice Dec - Feb.png

 

 

No correlation? Not so sure.

I think it's better to show januar to march. Because if there is a relation, it takes time to have effect (according to Cohen)

[Gael_Force]

Welcome to the asylum, Andy. The map on that first French link has all the names in English so I wonder where it comes from? A lot of the UK has a 0c anomaly on it, but Edinburgh is -20c as far as I can tell! Those would be some pretty weird synoptics.

 

That is a map of the temperature anomaly over Europe for winter 09/10 - I'm not sure of the agency source or the accuracy -but it is showing wiki in the image location.

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2d/Europe_Temperature_Map_2009-12.png

[BornFromTheVoid]

It's a big area of interest at the moment, this is a great read as well

 

http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/19375/html

 

They mention a new observation to keep an eye on, November sea ice cover over the Siberian seas. It's on a short timescale so I'm thinking could it be linked with these early season disruptions to the polar vortex that we have seen in recent years. Ice cover has been low for a decade now, but near the Barents sea (the main observation area) it's been pretty much non-existent. As far as I remember we have seen weakening of the vortex in November/December in 2009,2010 and 2012 in the last few years and these have all had very low Siberian sea ice cover, particularly 2009 and 2012.

 

Great find, cheers!

It seems the November sea ice link is related to the Barents cover, which is likely to remain low and influence the AO/NAO

 

For the larger scale impacts, low sea ice coverage across the Siberian seas during August/September are needed. Right now, ice coverage is very low along the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas and well in toward the Arctic Basin in these regions. The East Siberian Sea and nearby Arctic Basin and Chukchi areas are doing a little better this year though. So in general, coverage is still quite low along the Siberian coast.

[Yarmy]

That is a map of the temperature anomaly over Europe for winter 09/10 - I'm not sure of the agency source or the accuracy -but it is showing wiki in the image location.

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2d/Europe_Temperature_Map_2009-12.png

 

Here we go:

 

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42067

 

It's the anomaly for Dec 11-18 2009 against the 2000-2008 average. The UK didn't get properly cold until the 18th onwards hence the large disparity between Central Scotland and everywhere else, I suppose.

 

The French article just picked a stock cold-looking image of Europe by the looks of it. Nothing to do with the coming winter, and the origin of the 100 year cold seems to be the Voice of Russia. Didn't they predict the same thing last year, or was that Russia Today?

[Summer Sun]

Yes, although I would rather it works out for both parties, I would rather whoever wants mild carp gets it and whoever wants to be brutalised like we do to get it.

 

2010 / 11 suited everyone I would think cold and snowy November (second half) and for the bulk of December (though we did have a week of less cold weather from the 9th to 15th) just below average in January then a much milder February to end winter (1.7°C above average)

[Polar Maritime]

Hopefully i will get to see something like this again this Winter 

Before & after...

 

 

Edited September 24, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thats why I said there was a loose connection, but if we look at past ice conditions in the arctic then any correlation between ice retention and a cold winter in the NH is pretty poor to say the least.

 

Though we are only looking at the period since the late 70s when we were in +PDO phase and also the perturbation cycle where El Nino dominance tendency was in place.  I too think that the ice anomaly at this stage is not a strong link to go on.  If the anomaly reamins for next 20-30 then I think we'll have something.

 

BFTP

[andy989]

Hopefully i will get to see something like this again this Winter 

Before & after...

 

Hopefully i will get to see something like this again this Winter 

Before & after...

Amazing, I remember walking on  a back road during the blizzard and walked straight into drifting snow coming from a field, white out! Hoping for the same again this winter  

Oops for the double qote, still learning

Edited September 24, 2013 by andy989

[DeepSnow]

Being in Aberystwyth it would be good to get some deep cold and then a north westerly that would deliver snow showers off the irish sea, however I doubt this will happen as being a costal town we hardly see any snow compared to other areas! Maybe it will be nice and give some good falls when I go back home over xmas! I just hope we haven't used up all our luck and end up with a mild mushy winter!

[chionomaniac]

I think it's better to show januar to march. Because if there is a relation, it takes time to have effect (according to Cohen)

Here they are:

 

Low sea ice years Jan-March

 

 

High Sea ice years Jan-March

 

 

It is not so much the low sea ice years anomaly that is impressive here - but the increase in the polar vortex strength over Greenland over the high sea ice years. Now this may be for some other reason - but it has been reversed over the last few years that does coincide with the low sea ice years. 

 

Note that the anomaly from the high sea ice years from the Dec- Feb transfers from the Barents Sea and Kara Sea north of Siberia towards Greenland. Both areas are situated where we would want to sea blocking occur to favour cold in the UK.

 

Still Interesting.

Edited September 24, 2013 by chionomaniac

[chionomaniac]

Great find, cheers!

It seems the November sea ice link is related to the Barents cover, which is likely to remain low and influence the AO/NAO

 

For the larger scale impacts, low sea ice coverage across the Siberian seas during August/September are needed. Right now, ice coverage is very low along the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas and well in toward the Arctic Basin in these regions. The East Siberian Sea and nearby Arctic Basin and Chukchi areas are doing a little better this year though. So in general, coverage is still quite low along the Siberian coast.

 

Which is probably significant as seen in the posted anomaly charts as suggested above

[feb1991blizzard]

Here they are:

 

Low sea ice years Jan-March

 

Low sea Ice Jan - March.png

 

High Sea ice years Jan-March

 

High Sea Ice Jan - March..png

 

It is not so much the low sea ice years anomaly that is impressive here - but the increase in the polar vortex strength over Greenland over the high sea ice years. Now this may be for some other reason - but it has been reversed over the last few years that does coincide with the low sea ice years. 

 

Note that the anomaly from the high sea ice years from the Dec- Feb transfers from the Barents Sea and Kara Sea north of Siberia towards Greenland. Both areas are situated where we would want to sea blocking occur to favour cold in the UK.

 

Still Interesting.

 

 

 

 

 

That Low sea ice chart is Feb to April chiono! or at least it says it where it lists the years.

Edited September 24, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[chionomaniac]

 Cheers - Grrr  - correction on the way sorry - trying to do to many things at once!

[chionomaniac]

The corrected anomaly chart is pretty amazing- next I think that I will add one to show the difference between the two

 

Here it is - it doesn't look as impressive but that is only because the scale has changed!

 

Edited September 24, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Gavin Hannah]

Found this lurking out in FI.  

 

 

A lovely cold shot   !!