Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

I have a quick question for the weather historians amongst you.  Other than 22nd November 2010, have there ever been any significant nationwide deep freezes that began earlier than it did in 2010?

 

I am guessing early 19th century?

 

There is a few weeks with CET < 1 earlier in Nov, but usually its just a 7-10 days period before it warms up again to more normal temps.

 

1904 had a very cold 8-9 or so day period in late Nov with av CET of -1, (slightly colder than 2010) but then warmed for a while in Dec.

1925 wasn't as cold but cet for last 11 days was 1.2 and dec was  cold until Christmas (20th Nov - 25th of dec average = 1.5)

 

By Contrast same period in 2010 was -0.7.

 

Edit: This was by no means an exhaustive search, but just some quick ones I noticed.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Latest Glosea4 model run is in chaps....here is pressure anomaly for Nov/Dec/Jan

 

Posted Image

 

Dec/Jan/Feb....Undercutter central

 

Posted Image

It's another model I don't really rate even though it's relatively new, last winter it was going for cold up until November then switched. However there is a consistent theme amongst the long range models and that is heights remain positive to the N/NW/NE through the coming winter months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Latest Glosea4 model run is in chaps....here is pressure anomaly for Nov/Dec/Jan

 

Posted Image

 

Dec/Jan/Feb....Undercutter central

 

Posted Image

Seems to fit in again with the suggested analogues for this year yet again....

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

I have a quick question for the weather historians amongst you.  Other than 22nd November 2010, have there ever been any significant nationwide deep freezes that began earlier than it did in 2010?

 

I am guessing early 19th century?

 

On November 14/15th 1919 Braemar recorded minima of -23.3C and -22.8C, respectively. A low of -12.8C was recorded on the 13th. The 14th reading is the lowest November temperature on record and is one of only 3 occasions in which the month has "cracked" -20C, it is also the earliest date it has occurred.

 

I have no idea how widespread the cold was or for how long it lasted but it is an exceptionally potent spell considering how early in the month it occurred.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The probability maps have also updated

 

850hpa temperatures have a 40% chance of going above normal only 20% chance of below normal for northern Scotland

 

Posted Image

 

2m temperatures are also shown to be above normal this winter

 

Posted Image

 

Rainfall is shown to range from average to above normal in parts of Scotland and Ireland

 

Posted Image

 

40% chance of above normal pressure

 

Posted Image

 

So once again the met office probability maps point to a fairly mild winter for the UK

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Is the chart Gavin posted the operational / control or whatever run of the ens suite that produced the mean chart posted by CC, if so I would use the ens mean product over an op run over a period of time of that length.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Is the chart Gavin posted the operational / control or whatever run of the ens suite that produced the mean chart posted by CC, if so I would use the ens mean product over an op run over a period of time of that length.

Yes, the chart I posted is the ensemble mean.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Yes, the chart I posted is the ensemble mean.

 

Cheers, is the chart Gavin posted from the same model do you know?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

If that updated Glosea4 model verifies broadly, lets hope it's more towards the west of the anomaly rather than the east.

A Scandinavia high is much better than a Russian high.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

The probability maps have also updated

 

850hpa temperatures have a 40% chance of going above normal only 20% chance of below normal for northern Scotland

 

Posted Image

 

2m temperatures are also shown to be above normal this winter

 

Posted Image

 

Rainfall is shown to range from average to above normal in parts of Scotland and Ireland

 

Posted Image

 

40% chance of above normal pressure

 

Posted Image

 

So once again the met office probability maps point to a fairly mild winter for the UK

I'm not sure it does if you take into account the comments below your post. Plus the higher probabilities of above average tempertures are furthest north also this ties in with the pattern suggesting blocking to the north and especially north east with undercutting low pressure. That does not support a fairly mild pattern - most especially further south

Edited by Tamara Road
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I'm not sure it does if you take into account the comments below your post. Plus the higher probabilities of above average tempertures are furthest north also this ties in with the pattern suggesting blocking to the north and especially north east with undercutting low pressure. That does not support a fairly mild pattern - most especially further south

Unless it's high pressure over the south of the UK, would mean cooler and drier for the south in anticyclonic conditions and wetter and milder for the north with a more Atlantic dominated pattern.

Which by the way I don't want Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl

Would love a Greenland high instead of a Russian high . Last winter we had mostly Russian high pressure and it was a lot of hit and miss like the failed december easterly . I just think a Greenland high is more reliable to deliver the right conditions for some nice snowy weather

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

Unless it's high pressure over the south of the UK, would mean cooler and drier for the south in anticyclonic conditions and wetter and milder for the north with a more Atlantic dominated pattern.

Which by the way I don't want Posted Image

The pressure anomalies don't suggest that though - they suggest blocking most likely to the NE which implies undercutting low pressure Posted Image

 

I suspect the Polar Vortex is going to be unstable again this winter, taking everything into account, and whilst an SSW is less likely than last year, I think that we could see a few displacements of the vortex taking place. These would favour blocking to the NE rather than a Greenland High..most especially later in the winter timePosted Image

Edited by Tamara Road
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

Would love a Greenland high instead of a Russian high . Last winter we had mostly Russian high pressure and it was a lot of hit and miss like the failed december easterly . I just think a Greenland high is more reliable to deliver the right conditions for some nice snowy weather

 

Aye, a GH is perhaps more reliable than a Scandy, but in my opinion I'd always back a Scandy if I had the choice...The potential is just so much better, both in terms of temperatures (unless you get a freakish GH like the one in my avatar) and snowfall from undercutting lows.  Straight northerlies don't bring much snow really for the bulk of the UK.  

 

Also on average temps forecast:

 

If there's a strong signal of HLB to our N/NE with temperatures that are around average or only slightly below average, that means one thing: undercutting lows which will mix out the true depth of cold, but of course bring moisture with it that you would usually back to fall as snow provided you have a continental feed with low dew points (as the HLB would suggest). 

Edited by weatherguy
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

 

Also on average temps forecast:

 

If there's a strong signal of HLB to our N/NE with temperatures that are around average or only slightly below average, that means one thing: undercutting lows which will mix out the true depth of cold, but of course bring moisture with it that you would usually back to fall as snow provided you have a continental feed with low dew points (as the HLB would suggest). 

Yes exactly I fully agree with thatPosted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl

Aye, a GH is perhaps more reliable than a Scandy, but in my opinion I'd always back a Scandy if I had the choice...The potential is just so much better, both in terms of temperatures (unless you get a freakish GH like the one in my avatar) and snowfall from undercutting lows.  Straight northerlies don't bring much snow really for the bulk of the UK.   Also on average temps forecast: If there's a strong signal of HLB to our N/NE with temperatures that are around average or only slightly below average, that means one thing: undercutting lows which will mix out the true depth of cold, but of course bring moisture with it that you would usually back to fall as snow provided you have a continental feed with low dew points (as the HLB would suggest).

you are right about getting the better temps from a scandy but it's just getting it in place it's so fustraiting as we can be on the edge of the cold like feb 2012. From where I live a north west wind brings the best chance of high snowfall from the Irish sea but usually it's very borderline to get the right temperature form that direction . If its an easterly then I just hope that it brings a lot of moisture with it as it just ends up as a bitterly cold grey day with the only snow in the east from showers or if we do get a band of snow coming from the east the pennines get in the way . Best scenario would be a north easterly with some warm air coming in from the west to drag some moister from the Irish sea
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Lol, you Southerners are banking on a Scandy high whilst the rest of us are pining for heights over Greenland. IMO I think we'll see mid latitude heights transferring to Greenland in the latter part of Autumn into Winter, before we see these transfer Eastwards over Scandy. Either way heights to our North be it NW or NE look the form horse at this present time.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Excuse the incorrect labelling of these, began building them for earlier months and didn't change it to 2012 for the Winter months, can't be bothered going back and getting them again, so please ignore the typo. Should read 2012 rather than 2013, sadly the re-analysis data page doesn't see into the future.

 

I liked the idea that many have put around about a shift into a colder cycle of winters, whether it be sun driven, or something of the mode mentioned by Cohen, there is body of evidence beginning to support this theme. SM posted a brilliant illustration of just that very change whereby the last 4 or 5 years in isolation demonstrates an anomaly shift  whilst coming to the Cohen conclusion prior to the paper appearing so that's a definite theme. Looking at the same kind of idea and placing the last 4 years versus since the turn of the century provides this, and some stark differences.

 

Below are November and December Anomalies, increasing cold anomaly in our back yard and also that Aleutian / Kamchatka ridge just blows up for December for the last 4 years chart.  Not going to pretend I have a quick answer for this, just putting the charts up, but a ridge of that stature, should it become a regular occurrence will feed into polar vortex and enhance displacement perhaps even SSW odds, subsequent to SAI I think this is another area to keep an eye on.

 

post-7292-0-25080200-1379350274_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-18620800-1379350280_thumb.pn

 

 

post-7292-0-06235400-1379350259_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-51806300-1379350263_thumb.pn

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

Lol, you Southerners are banking on a Scandy high whilst the rest of us are pining for heights over Greenland. IMO I think we'll see mid latitude heights transferring to Greenland in the latter part of Autumn into Winter, before we see these transfer Eastwards over Scandy. Either way heights to our North be it NW or NE look the form horse at this present time.

Ha ha!Posted Image  My own opinion is based on what i think, provisionally, will happen with the polar stratospheric profile, and hence the fact that the vortex will jump around once again to give blocking opportunties. However the fact that a few background factors don't support a full blown SSW like they did last year, then that rather makes Greenland blocking less likely as a displaced vortex still has pieces of energy remaining..and this means that the jet stream might prohibit blocking in this region.

 

However, with split and disruptive energy..then blocking to the NE, especially if we get a favourable Asian/Siberian snow cover feedback going once more, will encourage a -AO profile and blocking to the NE with slider low pressure and all the fun that goes with thatPosted Image

Edited by Tamara Road
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ormesby St Margaret - Nr Gt Yarmouth / Work in Norwich
  • Location: Ormesby St Margaret - Nr Gt Yarmouth / Work in Norwich

Hi Tamara, why is a SSW less likely this year? (If it's a simple answer, no worries if I have to read the entire SSW thread to gain an understanding!)

 

Oops, sorry you've already replied. (Feel free to delete)

Edited by HomerJ
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Ha ha!Posted Image  My own opinion is based on what i think, provisionally, will happen with the polar stratospheric profile, and hence the fact that the vortex will jump around once again to give blocking opportunties. However the fact that a few background factors don't support a full blown SSW like they did last year, then that rather makes Greenland blocking less likely as a displaced vortex still has pieces of energy remaining..and this means that the jet stream might prohibit blocking in this region.

 

However, with split and disruptive energy..then blocking to the NE, especially if we get a favourable Asian/Siberian snow cover feedback going once more, will encourage a -AO profile and blocking to the NE with slider low pressure and all the fun that goes with thatPosted Image

Hi Tamara. We have to remember that in December 2010 we managed blocking without any SSW, hence why I think that blocking in this area could materialise early in the season, more so if the Atlantic remains quiet . I do think as we head in the later part of winter then any blocking would be to the NE of us

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Hi Tamara. We have to remember that in December 2010 we managed blocking without any SSW, hence why I think that blocking in this area could materialise early in the season, more so if the Atlantic remains quiet . I do think as we head in the later part of winter then any blocking would be to the NE of us

Would it be safe to say that - barring hurricanes, tornadoes and heat waves - just about anything could occur, come December?Posted Image 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Perranporth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Ice, Thunderstorms and Heatwaves
  • Location: Perranporth

I have a feeling we are gonna be in for a very cold snowy winter this year that may come early. I know many of you will go where is your evidence, truth is I don't have any but I just have a feeling. haha

 

By the way my thermometer has already given a low of 5c over the last couple of days! :)

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...