Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[simshady]

I wonder what people would wish for this winter

 

A few cold snaps lasting for 2/3 weeks each, with a return to much milder weather between each cold snap to give us a break from ice/snow.

 

Total chaos sub CET 0c for Dec, Jan and Feb

 

Mild and breezy ?

 

Definitely total chaos!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Another vote for total chaos lol

[Summer Sun]

I wonder what people would wish for this winter

 

A few cold snaps lasting for 2/3 weeks each, with a return to much milder weather between each cold snap to give us a break from ice/snow.

 

Total chaos sub CET 0c for Dec, Jan and Feb

 

Mild and breezy ?

 

Mild and breezy with limited cold

[cheeky_monkey]

Mild and breezy please...constant sub zero temps get boring after a few weeks.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Lol what a question.November turns progressively colder toward mid month , turning very cold toward the end into dec with northeasterly winds , high pressure toward Greenland , and southerly tracking lows, a break mid-month with temps upto 5c by day , but cold frosty nights down to -4 , then very cold and snowy toward Xmas , into jan , with storing easterly winds , 850's of -13/14 , lots instability from the North Sea, and low pressure pushing northwards from Southern Europe , bringing a spell of heavy snow across the country , like it did in feb 09 but more widespread disruption so the more western areas have fun aswell . Toward the end of jan it can become anticyclonic with hoar frosts and freezing fog ! Feb can then do what it what's but if we can get a strong northerly outbreak with polar lows and troughs embedded in a very cold air mass bringing misery and chaos to the uk.This would of course ruin my trade in my barber shop with no one leaving the house lol but when it comes to winter I become obsessive and I have no control over the way I feel !!! There you have it. Insight into Shaun's mad mind when it comes to winter. I call it a hobbie , my wife calls it hell !!!!!

[WillinGlossop]

My first winter in Glossop(well 325m up and a bit out of town) i really want at least one stonking heavy heavy snowfall and ill be happy.... Have a wood burner now too so would be nice for at least one week of 1-2 ft of snow would be lovely.....then it can do what it wants.....

[cheese]

Another vote for total chaos lol

Ditto I will never tire of snow.

[Summer Sun]

Rare solar cycle has cold implications for UK climate

 

NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906. Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810. Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s. Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers. This type of climate is a result of a jet stream that’s positioned further south than normal – caused, it’s thought at least in part, by the behaviour of the sun. The mechanism as to why weak solar cycles may affect the position of the jet stream is poorly understood.

 

But a more southerly positioned jet stream is the reason why the UK has recently seen a return of cold snowy winters and a run of poor summers. Should solar activity continue to mirror that which was observed from 1795 to 1820 then it’s possible that our weather could be similar too. The Central England Temperature (CET) record, which began in 1659, gives an intriguing insight into what might lie ahead. The period was littered with examples of cold, wet summers and cold winters – indeed the decade from 1810-1819 was the coldest since the 1690s. There were exceptions, for example the very warm summer of 1818; and not every winter was harsh. It’s worth noting that the year 1816 was complicated by a huge volcanic eruption in Indonesia the year before, which depressed temperatures worldwide. But despite some temporary warmer interludes, historical weather records give a good indication of the type of weather the UK could experience should current solar activity continue to mirror that which was observed during the Dalton minimum over 200 years ago.

 

And it’s sobering to remember that the Dalton solar minimum lasted for 25 years.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Rare-solar-cycle-has-cold-implications-for-UK-climate

[March Blizzard]

1814 was remarkable. January: -2.9C, Feb: 1.4C, Mar: 2.9C. That's a Jan colder than '63, a Feb on par with Jan 2010 and a March neck and neck with 2013, all in a row.

The sun's activity is strikingly similar to then, 200 year anniversary special anyone?

[laserguy]

Mild and breezy please...constant sub zero temps get boring after a few weeks.

 

Not as boring as endless mild gunge - not by half!

[P-M]

2 week blizzard with 10ft of deep snow and 30ft drifts - ...................then I woke up with my head in my cornflake bowl to +13 and sunshine but we can all dream

[Yarmy]

Rare solar cycle has cold implications for UK climate

 

NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906. Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810. Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s. Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers. This type of climate is a result of a jet stream that’s positioned further south than normal – caused, it’s thought at least in part, by the behaviour of the sun. The mechanism as to why weak solar cycles may affect the position of the jet stream is poorly understood.

 

But a more southerly positioned jet stream is the reason why the UK has recently seen a return of cold snowy winters and a run of poor summers. Should solar activity continue to mirror that which was observed from 1795 to 1820 then it’s possible that our weather could be similar too. The Central England Temperature (CET) record, which began in 1659, gives an intriguing insight into what might lie ahead. The period was littered with examples of cold, wet summers and cold winters – indeed the decade from 1810-1819 was the coldest since the 1690s. There were exceptions, for example the very warm summer of 1818; and not every winter was harsh. It’s worth noting that the year 1816 was complicated by a huge volcanic eruption in Indonesia the year before, which depressed temperatures worldwide. But despite some temporary warmer interludes, historical weather records give a good indication of the type of weather the UK could experience should current solar activity continue to mirror that which was observed during the Dalton minimum over 200 years ago.

 

And it’s sobering to remember that the Dalton solar minimum lasted for 25 years.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Rare-solar-cycle-has-cold-implications-for-UK-climate

 

The Maunder Minimum lasted for 70 years and that seems to be where we're headed.

 

http://www.leif.org/research/apjl2012-Liv-Penn-Svalg.pdf

 

"By extrapolating our sunspot formation fraction to the predicted peak of Cycle 24 (in mid-2013) the sunspot formation fraction would be approaching 0.5. This suggests a rather small SSN for this cycle, in agreement with some recent Cycle 24 predictions (Svalgaard et al. 2005; Hathaway 2012). And while there is no physical mechanism which suggests that we should extrapolate further, it is fascinating to see that the sunspot formation fraction would drop below 0.2 by 2020. This would suggest that although magnetic flux would be erupting at the solar surface during Cycle 25, only a small fraction of it would be strong enough to form visible sunspots or pores. Such behavior would be highly unusual, since such a small solar maximum has not been observed since the Maunder Minimum. During that period from roughly 1645 to 1715, few sunspots were observed, although cosmic-ray studies suggest the Sun did have a functioning magnetic activity cycle (Usoskin et al. 2001); this is consistent with the scenario provided by our fit extraolation. A recent study of sunspot records suggests that the Maunder Minimum began with two small sunspot cycles with roughly the same amplitude as predicted by our extrapolation for Cycle 25 (Vaquero et al. 2011). Finally, it is interesting to note that there seems to be a strange lack of the normal precursors for Cycle 25 as observed with helioseismic and coronal emission line indicators (Hill et al. 2011; Altrock 2011)."

 

Interesting times ahead alright, but I'm not personally convinced that we are heading into the freezer. Will be fun watching, though. 

Edited September 12, 2013 by Yarmy

[UV-RAY]

I'll go for total utter chaos during the first half of winter followed by apocalyptic cold for the rest.

[Gavin Hannah]

 

The Maunder Minimum lasted for 70 years and that seems to be where we're headed.

 

http://www.leif.org/research/apjl2012-Liv-Penn-Svalg.pdf

 

"By extrapolating our sunspot formation fraction to the predicted peak of Cycle 24 (in mid-2013) the sunspot formation fraction would be approaching 0.5. This suggests a rather small SSN for this cycle, in agreement with some recent Cycle 24 predictions (Svalgaard et al. 2005; Hathaway 2012). And while there is no physical mechanism which suggests that we should extrapolate further, it is fascinating to see that the sunspot formation fraction would drop below 0.2 by 2020. This would suggest that although magnetic flux would be erupting at the solar surface during Cycle 25, only a small fraction of it would be strong enough to form visible sunspots or pores. Such behavior would be highly unusual, since such a small solar maximum has not been observed since the Maunder Minimum. During that period from roughly 1645 to 1715, few sunspots were observed, although cosmic-ray studies suggest the Sun did have a functioning magnetic activity cycle (Usoskin et al. 2001); this is consistent with the scenario provided by our fit extraolation. A recent study of sunspot records suggests that the Maunder Minimum began with two small sunspot cycles with roughly the same amplitude as predicted by our extrapolation for Cycle 25 (Vaquero et al. 2011). Finally, it is interesting to note that there seems to be a strange lack of the normal precursors for Cycle 25 as observed with helioseismic and coronal emission line indicators (Hill et al. 2011; Altrock 2011)."

 

Interesting times ahead alright, but I'm not personally convinced that we are heading into the freezer. Will be fun watching, though. 

 

 

 

Us Solar Watchers have been banding this info around for the past 3-4 years now.  It will always be met with criticism from those that don't support the ideas above, but, like others have said...only time will tell.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I wonder what people would wish for this winter?

Happy to see some records broken for most blizzards seen in a winter season, but please let's not have to wait 8 months for our next warm weather. After a cold blast in Feb, I am ready for spring during March. Last March, as spectacular as it was, it was a month of cold too much for my liking! Edited September 12, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[feb1991blizzard]

I will have November 2010, December 1894, January 1795 and February 1947 please.

[Gaz1985]

Christmas eve looks chilly but blink and you will miss it as by Boxing day it's not looking that cold, no cold like December 2010 thank god 

 

[cheese]

I will have November 2010, December 1894, January 1795 and February 1947 please.

Then I'll have March 1947. Then April can do whatever it wants.

[March Blizzard]

Then I'll have March 1947. Then April can do whatever it wants.

The first half of March 47 was actually very cold, sub zero in fact. The second half then turned very mild.

[feb1991blizzard]

Then I'll have March 1947. Then April can do whatever it wants.

 

Il have April 81 as.

 

This

 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

The first half of March 47 was actually very cold, sub zero in fact. The second half then turned very mild.

Has there ever been a colder or snowier first half of March in recorded history than '47?

[Gaz1985]

Has there ever been a colder or snowier first half of March in recorded history than '47?

 

Last March was colder but not snowier, coldest since 1883 I believe, what an awful month http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/2013_weather.htm

[feb1991blizzard]

Has there ever been a colder or snowier first half of March in recorded history than '47?

 

 

I don't know how much fell, however, there really have only been 3 Marches that have delivered heavy snow in my lifetime that I can remember, I don't know if they competed with 47 or not, 1995, heavy fall in the West Midlands on the first Thursday night and was cold enough to last a good while and same location a very heavy fall on the first Friday night in March 1987 and ditto lasted a long time, the other March of course was in the Second half and that was the best 2nd half of March I have ever seen and by a country mile - last March.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'd opt for a snowy, but varied, winter half-year with several relatively short-lived cold snowy spells (3-7 days' worth) and the odd longer one (1-2 weeks) with one of these straddling Christmas/New Year, with mild spells in between and thaws to help the country get back to normal for a while and remove the old snow in preparation for the next falls, and add variety.

 

This might not sound too exciting to many snow lovers, but bear in mind that in Tyneside, the period 25th November-26th December 2010 fell within the bounds of the above description (a two-week freeze-up, a milder interlude with a thaw, and then a ten-day freeze-up)- so by no means would it rule out anything severe!

 

The above is often hard to achieve because of the tendency for both warm and cold patterns to lock in for long periods.  When we've had prolonged cold weather in recent winters I've often considered milder interludes unwelcome because they would be half-hearted and would turn the snow to slush and ice, and of course the opposite of that is mild winter months where cold/snow lovers are chasing 36-hour northerlies.  However we do occasionally get "episodic" months.

Edited September 12, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[March Blizzard]

Has there ever been a colder or snowier first half of March in recorded history than '47?

Honest answer - I don't know! One for Weather-History methinks. I can't imagine there being many (if any) other sub-zero CET first half's of March.