Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Isolated Frost]

My composites say November cooler, December average-mild, January cooler and February much cooler.

[syed2878]

@weatherguy as far as i know joe bastardi is a qualified met man and yes he is a bit ott, how ever i would pay mor attension to his forecast than some fake forecasters out there. Sadly we wont get gp's views this year for the coming winter. Anyway it's worth following chio and lurenzo with their knologe on the strat and j.h with his 500mb charts.

[Yarmy]

Here's that vid by Gavin Partridge.....a very interesting watch

 

 

Especially interesting towards the 12 minute mark. Shows that during the Maunder period, continental temperatures plummeted some 2C on average.

 

Video doesn't work for me on Safari on a Mac, Safari on an iPad, IE10 on a Windows 7 machine, or Firefox on an Windows XP machine.

[feb1991blizzard]

Snow for the very highest ground possible.

 

 

[Eugene]

Snow for the very highest ground possible.

 

 

I know people think cold Octobers are no good for our winter prospects but I would love a HLB'ing October with frost and even snowfall in the north, I don't buy the warm dry October = Cold winter theory,,, the weather will do what it wants no matter what happens in October.

 

That chart above with how trends are going this September is definitely plausible at some point in October.

[Jonan92]

Is this realiable? I am amazed by the differences between the two years

 

GFS

 

500hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

850hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

 

 

ECMWF

 

500hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

850hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

[feb1991blizzard]

I know people think cold Octobers are no good for our winter prospects but I would love a HLB'ing October with frost and even snowfall in the north, I don't buy the warm dry October = Cold winter theory,,, the weather will do what it wants no matter what happens in October.

 

That chart above with how trends are going this September is definitely plausible at some point in October.

 

All depends on the teleconnective issues and essentially you have a point, no matter what happens in October, if you have an above average polar stratosphere in late Nov and Dec you always have a chance of a cold snap, frost doesn't do it for me but its better than mild, snow the only thing that really gets the juices flowing for me but because you can see it getting colder in the autumn, I suppose a frost does whet the appetite.

 

You would think that the more atlantic driven the weather is in Autumn you would think it gives more chance to a strong pv forming although of course it doesn't always work that way either.

Edited September 12, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Methuselah]

Let's just say, that the weather in October has no discernible predictive value, for the following winter; it is, in short, irrelevant.

[Methuselah]

@weatherguy as far as i know joe bastardi is a qualified met man and yes he is a bit ott, how ever i would pay mor attension to his forecast than some fake forecasters out there. Sadly we wont get gp's views this year for the coming winter. Anyway it's worth following chio and lurenzo with their knologe on the strat and j.h with his 500mb charts.

Maybe yes, maybe no...But, as no-one has ever demonstrated any consistent reliability with their LRFs, I'm not sure that it really matters??

Edited September 12, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[Yarmy]

Is this realiable? I am amazed by the differences between the two years

 

GFS

 

500hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

850hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

 

 

ECMWF

 

500hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

850hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

At face value, it looks cooler, but you'd have to find the overall NH 850hPA temp anomalies (if such a record exists) and compare them.

[SomeLikeItHot]

I know people think cold Octobers are no good for our winter prospects but I would love a HLB'ing October with frost and even snowfall in the north, I don't buy the warm dry October = Cold winter theory,,, the weather will do what it wants no matter what happens in October. That chart above with how trends are going this September is definitely plausible at some point in October.

The CET correlations show that cold spring months and cold Autumn months have the highest correlations with cold following winters.However it should be reminded that the correlations here are pretty low, for seasonal averages around 14% correlation of Spring to the following winter - 22% for Autumn (strongest influence being November). Summer is only 5%. Doing it month by month June/July in particular have basically no correlation with Winter and August is around 10%.Anyway from this purely statistical one factor view I would say we have slightly better than average chances of a cold winter.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Is this realiable? I am amazed by the differences between the two years [

The high artic has been colder this year with less ice melting. SO perhaps not surprising more cold air around at the same stage this year.

[weatherguy]

Maybe yes, maybe no...But, as no-one has ever demonstrated any consistent reliability with their LRFs, I'm not sure that it really matters??

 

Well the thing I liked with GPs thoughts was that he structured it like; x is happening now which should lead to y forming and, if that happens, I can see z happening due to w.  And he gave different scenarios based on balance of probability in his mind.

 

So you could basically follow it and see why things did or did not happen, rather than being left bemused if he said "cold winter ahead" and it didn't materialise.  

[swfc]

Great video gavin and thanks.personally I don't see esp in the uk any real connection between a mild autumn and the winter being either mild or cold.granted in more northern lattitudes it does help in the build up of snow cover ete.interesting times tho ahead regarding the solar output ete!

[Suburban Streamer]

Let's just say, that the weather in October has no discernible predictive value, for the following winter; it is, in short, irrelevant.

 

i would agree as far as weather in the uk goes.  But october and november, as last year proved, can indeed give a clue as to blocking patterns in winter - using eurasian snowcover as guidence http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/CohenandJones_JC12.pdf

Edited September 12, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[Summer Sun]

Is this realiable? I am amazed by the differences between the two years

 

GFS

 

500hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

850hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

 

 

ECMWF

 

500hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

850hpa

 

2012

 

 

2013

 

 

Like I've said before this September has been much better than last year so far last year was just a continuation of the floods, no such problems this September

Gavin P on TWO

 

Here's the latest tri-monthly update from JMA;

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php

 

November and December both look quite cold, IMO.

 

 

That follows netweather NCEP maps more so for November as they also go for a chilly one

[Evening thunder]

Like I've said before this September has been much better than last year so far last year was just a continuation of the floods, no such problems this September

Gavin P on TWO

 

 

That follows netweather NCEP maps more so for November as they also go for a chilly one

 

Wasn't last year quite dry and warm during the first half with temps up to the high 20's in the SE? it was only on the 23rd-26th that an active system gave a lot of rain and floods in places especially the NE I think.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2012/september

[SomeLikeItHot]

Wasn't last year quite dry and warm during the first half with temps up to the high 20's in the SE? it was only on the 23rd-26th that an active system gave a lot of rain and floods in places especially the NE I think.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2012/september

First 10 days of Sept 2012 were generally warm (CET av 15.1) then it pretty much turned cool (last 20 days CET av 11.7). A bit like this year only it seems to have turned after 5 days this time.

[Don]

First 10 days of Sept 2012 were generally warm (CET av 15.1) then it pretty much turned cool (last 20 days CET av 11.7). A bit like this year only it seems to have turned after 5 days this time.

 

Indeed it was.  Temeperatures hit 28C in the south east on the 8th and 9th.

[weatherguy]

The point was that for much of last summer there was a much more -NAO which means the PV was inevitably weaker than it is now. 

[Yarmy]

Here's that vid by Gavin Partridge.....a very interesting watch

 

 

Especially interesting towards the 12 minute mark. Shows that during the Maunder period, continental temperatures plummeted some 2C on average.

 

 

Ok, it just worked for me. 

 

It's the Dalton Minimum he shows, not the Maunder. Temperatures certainly dropped over the period, but the excessively cold 1816 (the year without a Summer) was strongly influenced by this:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora

 

 

It's the worth noting too that SC5 has large error bars in its certainty, so a straight comparison with SC24 is a little bit dubious.

 

Edited September 12, 2013 by Yarmy

[Relativistic]

Ok, it just worked for me.

It's the Dalton Minimum he shows, not the Maunder. Temperatures certainly dropped over the period, but the excessively cold 1815 (the year without a Summer) was strongly influenced by this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora

It's the worth noting too that SC5 has large error bars in its certainty, so a straight comparison with SC24 is a little bit dubious.

I agree to that. Comparing data gathered by modern technologies to data gathered by technologies that have such a large margin for error is not going to point to much. Edited September 12, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Summer Sun]

CFS continues to hint at February been the coldest of the winter months (for the north) today with December and January slightly below average

 

 

But I wouldn't be too surprised to see November coming in the coldest with December also starting chilly but with temperatures recovering as the month progress

Edited September 12, 2013 by Summer Sun

[stewfox]

I wonder what people would wish for this winter

 

A few cold snaps lasting for 2/3 weeks each, with a return to much milder weather between each cold snap to give us a break from ice/snow.

 

Total chaos sub CET 0c for Dec, Jan and Feb

 

Mild and breezy ?

[AderynCoch]

I wonder what people would wish for this winter

 

A few cold snaps lasting for 2/3 weeks each, with a return to much milder weather between each cold snap to give us a break from ice/snow.

 

Total chaos sub CET 0c for Dec, Jan and Feb

 

Mild and breezy ?