Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[feb1991blizzard]

 

[Robbie Garrett]

Interesting stuff being thrown out by the CFS for early Winter, unbelievable if it comes to fruition...

 

 

Merry Christmas anyone??

 

 

 

[Gavin Hannah]

 

 

The first snowfall across the munros next week!!  

 

Lovely charts Robbie, can I book them please!!!

Edited September 11, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[cheeky_monkey]

Well, the winter of 09/10 was preceded by 260 days of spotless solar activity.  We are now almost spotless (again if you use laymans, it is already at 0) The latest solar disk shows two teency weency spots you would need to dig you magnifying glass out for.

 

http://www.spaceweather.com

 

 

I follow Joe B on twitter and unlike some other forecasters, his stuff is at least based in science.   How accurate he proves to be, well, only time will tell. 

i can see 3 even without my glasses on

[Methuselah]

I've always been an advocate for the sun being the main influencer/driver.   The only question for me is, how much lag is there between the suns activity and its effects on the earths weather.

 

Then, of course we need to ask, how is human influence augmenting the suns effects.....?

My suspicion is...that, come this time next year, we'll all still be making the same arguments/counter arguments we are making now... 

[Gavin Hannah]

i can see 3 even without my glasses on

 

Lol, compared with normal spots, they are tiny and I was merely emphasizing the smallness of them lol 

[cheese]

Awesome. If only we could get the first lowland snowfall - it's happened before, so it can happen again.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Well for me it's about heat being retained deep in the oceans and redistributed over time, he is certainly spot on with regards to the two hundred years of fairly

high levels of solar activity. I relish the upcoming hypothesis Pete, at least there can be no further arguments as to which plays the greater role.

but it probably won't disprove anything though but just add a little more weight in one direction or the other. Any influence is likely to be statistical rather than a direction cause effect relationship otherwise it would be blindingly obvious in past history. There is some correlation (which of course doesn't even prove a statistical causation)there but clearly not an a implies b relationship, so it will take many such events to give us an answer.

My suspicion is...that, come this time next year, we'll all still be making the same arguments/counter arguments we are making now...

Yes because of the above. Edited September 11, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Robbie Garrett]

The first snowfall across the munros next week!!  

 

Lovely charts Robbie, can I book them please!!!

 

Not many moons to go, but yeah I've banked them and saved them

[Coast]

I think many of you will enjoy this forecast, but remember it comes via the Daily Mail and you have to read it carefully to see it's about the US, where the headlines forget to mention that.......  

 

 

Time to polish your snow shovel... The weather forecast has been delivered and it's predicting a BITTER COLD winter. But is the country's oldest periodical right this time?

• [*]The Old Farmer's Almanac says temperatures will be colder-than-average with higher-than-average snowfall [*]The annual periodical has been published for 222 years [*]It claims to have a 94 per cent success rate [*]It also claims to be 'useful with a pleasant degree of humour' [*]The periodical predicts a drier spring and a drought next summer [*]It is also expecting hurricanes and storms in one year from now
  

Brace yourselves for a freezing winter. At least, that is according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac. The 222-year-old periodical, which is believed to be the oldest continuously published periodical in the US, has predicted 'colder-than-average temperatures' this winter with 'higher-than-average snowfall'. The Dublin, New Hampshire-based Almanac, which released its 2014 edition today, says a drop in solar activity and a change in ocean patterns are the reasons behind the cooler temperatures.

 

‘This winter will bring bitter cold and heavy snow across most of the US,’ says the publication, which dubs itself as 'useful, with a pleasant degree of humour'. It says the cold weather will affect every region of the US except for the lower Great Lakes, the upper Midwest and the northern states of the Northeast. ‘Sweaters and snow shovels should be unpacked early and kept close by throughout the season,’ said Janice Stillman, editor of the annual periodical.

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2416901/Time-polish-snow-shovel--The-weather-forecast-delivered-predicting-BITTER-COLD-winter-But-countrys-oldest-periodical-right-time.html#ixzz2eadiacu2 

[Cheshire Freeze]

It'll sure be interesting to see whether the Glosea4 model sticks with its idea of an Iceland-centred block in its next update (due in the next week).

 

A reminder of the August update...

 

Edited September 11, 2013 by CreweCold

[cheeky_monkey]

 

I think many of you will enjoy this forecast, but remember it comes via the Daily Mail and you have to read it carefully to see it's about the US, where the headlines forget to mention that.......

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2416901/Time-polish-snow-shovel--The-weather-forecast-delivered-predicting-BITTER-COLD-winter-But-countrys-oldest-periodical-right-time.html#ixzz2eadiacu2 

 

Farmers alamanac has been completely wrong the last 3 winters in a row...94% accurate?

[weatherguy]

It'll sure be interesting to see whether the Glosea4 model sticks with its idea of an Iceland-centred block in its next update (due in the next week).

 

A reminder of the August update...

 

 

Indeed, a similar update would suggest once more an easterly element being more influential than a northerly...

 

On Joe Bastardi:  Is this guy credible at all?  I don't mind hype about cold if it is based on fact (ie. I love reading what Steve Murr has to say when he comes out of his summer hibernation), but does he just ramp cold and forecast it every single winter?  Admittedly I've only been on the site now since 2009/2010 I think and winters in Europe have generally been abnormally cold in this period, so it's hard for me to tell; did he forecast cold in the depths of the mild dross winter periods of the previous decade? 

Edited September 11, 2013 by weatherguy

[tight isobar]

Interesting stuff being thrown out by the CFS for early Winter, unbelievable if it comes to fruition...

 

 

Merry Christmas anyone??

 

[img=http://i3sw

some quite phenomenal blocking being modeled by cfs, with polar seepidge engulfing, ourselves far to early of course but further evolutionary will need def inspection.if continuation of such(trends) the most law abide mild winter wants,will have surely take, note.getting intresting, as autau

[snowking]

i can see 3 even without my glasses on

Indeed I think JB is going a little OTT, as per usual.

 

I am keeping a track on the solar activity (I will have a permanent link with a daily update soon enough) but it has certainly plummeted in the last week, though there has been a slight recovery today with a new region visible too:

 

 

It is still really rather low though, and we will have to just monitor and see whether this is a permanent change, with the double-peak already being reached, or whether this just proves to be a blip.

 

If it is something a little more permanent, then yet again all estimates of the solar maximum have been well off the mark, and heading towards the last 5 years of this decade we could have an unprecedented period of spotless days. You also then have to wonder what cycle 25 has in store for us... (hint: probably more of the same...or should that be less of the same)

 

SK

[Cheshire Freeze]

Indeed I think JB is going a little OTT, as per usual.

 

I am keeping a track on the solar activity (I will have a permanent link with a daily update soon enough) but it has certainly plummeted in the last week, though there has been a slight recovery today with a new region visible too:

 

solarcount.png

 

It is still really rather low though, and we will have to just monitor and see whether this is a permanent change, with the double-peak already being reached, or whether this just proves to be a blip.

 

If it is something a little more permanent, then yet again all estimates of the solar maximum have been well off the mark, and heading towards the last 5 years of this decade we could have an unprecedented period of spotless days. You also then have to wonder what cycle 25 has in store for us... (hint: probably more of the same...or should that be less of the same)

 

SK

 

Indeed, could get a little nippy.

[Yarmy]

Indeed I think JB is going a little OTT, as per usual.

 

I am keeping a track on the solar activity (I will have a permanent link with a daily update soon enough) but it has certainly plummeted in the last week, though there has been a slight recovery today with a new region visible too:

 

solarcount.png

 

It is still really rather low though, and we will have to just monitor and see whether this is a permanent change, with the double-peak already being reached, or whether this just proves to be a blip.

 

If it is something a little more permanent, then yet again all estimates of the solar maximum have been well off the mark, and heading towards the last 5 years of this decade we could have an unprecedented period of spotless days. You also then have to wonder what cycle 25 has in store for us... (hint: probably more of the same...or should that be less of the same)

 

SK

 

Not all.

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.173.2179&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

The SSN count has probably been suppressed further by the Livingston-Penn effect:

 

http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png

 

It seems possible that SC25 will be very weak indeed. Whether that will have any significant effect on our climate though, I'm not so sure.

[Cheshire Freeze]

RE the talk above about mild/cold winters over recent years. I remember watching a Gavin P video a couple of weeks back relating to sunspots and IMO the recent cold continental winters have adhered to historic patterns where sunspot numbers were consistently low for long periods of time i.e Maunder period etc. I can't remember exact figures but there was a strong correlation shown between solar activity and average temperatures across N Europe. I'll try and dig the video out.

[tight isobar]

Interesting stuff being thrown out by the CFS for early Winter, unbelievable if it comes to fruition...

 

 

Merry Christmas anyone??

 

[img=http://i3sw

some quite phenomenal blocking being modeled by cfs, with polar seepidge engulfing, ourselves far to early of course but further evolutionary will need def inspection.if continuation of such(trends) the most law abide mild winter wants,will have surely take, note.getting intresting, as autau. Sorry my post have been generated onto your. t isobar

[Cheshire Freeze]

Here's that vid by Gavin Partridge.....a very interesting watch

 

 

Especially interesting towards the 12 minute mark. Shows that during the Maunder period, continental temperatures plummeted some 2C on average.

Edited September 11, 2013 by CreweCold

[tight isobar]

Again apology to Robbie garrette,whom posted the north hem cfs charts,I'm posting off my phone, sorry my post ended up within your own regards...

[snowking]

RE the talk above about mild/cold winters over recent years. I remember watching a Gavin P video a couple of weeks back relating to sunspots and IMO the recent cold continental winters have adhered to historic patterns where sunspot numbers were consistently low for long periods of time i.e Maunder period etc. I can't remember exact figures but there was a strong correlation shown between solar activity and average temperatures across N Europe. I'll try and dig the video out.

Yep - part of the basis of the theory as to why global warming appears to have 'slowed down' in the last 10 years or so.

 

Its not a perfect relationship and there are, as with any area of meteorology and climatology, a lot of variables to take in to account. But indeed both the Maunder and Dalton minimums co-incided with well below average temperatures globally - as indeed did the spotless period through 09/10 with our very cold winters:

 

 

You'll also notice, on a more localised scale, that the milder winter in our current run of cold winters (11/12) co-incided with a peak in solar activity

 

SK

[Methuselah]

Yep - part of the basis of the theory as to why global warming appears to have 'slowed down' in the last 10 years or so.

 

Its not a perfect relationship and there are, as with any area of meteorology and climatology, a lot of variables to take in to account. But indeed both the Maunder and Dalton minimums co-incided with well below average temperatures globally - as indeed did the spotless period through 09/10 with our very cold winters:

 

 

You'll also notice, on a more localised scale, that the milder winter in our current run of cold winters (11/12) co-incided with a peak in solar activity

 

SK

Coincidence can be very misleading, however: the cold winters of 1947, 63, 79, 82 and 2001 all occurred during times of relatively high sunspot activity...

[UV-RAY]

Yep - part of the basis of the theory as to why global warming appears to have 'slowed down' in the last 10 years or so.

 

Its not a perfect relationship and there are, as with any area of meteorology and climatology, a lot of variables to take in to account. But indeed both the Maunder and Dalton minimums co-incided with well below average temperatures globally - as indeed did the spotless period through 09/10 with our very cold winters:

 

 

You'll also notice, on a more localised scale, that the milder winter in our current run of cold winters (11/12) co-incided with a peak in solar activity

 

SK

Without taking this thread down the for and against AGW route, it could be argued that a large part of the the 20th century warming was down to solar activity. As for this coming winter for the UK, solar output is only one part of the equation, off course it aids high latitude blocking but there are so many other factors to be considered for this tiny speck in the ocean.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Without taking this thread down the for and against AGW route, it could be argued that a large part of the the 20th century warming was down to solar activity. As for this coming winter for the UK, solar output is only one part of the equation, off course it aids high latitude blocking but there are so many other factors to be considered for this tiny speck in the ocean.

 

I'm sure it was a factor, allied with a Nino base state in the latter years.

 

Actually 1900-1940 saw an unusually long +PDO and then again from 1980-2005/2006

 

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/img/pdo_latest.tif

Edited September 11, 2013 by CreweCold