Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[smithyweather]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/27989-how-to-try-and-forecast-snow/- Some great information here from J.H

 

This image was posted last winter and is very useful on interpreting upper temperatures on the meteociel charts. 

 

Does this work for all models? 

[Buriedundersnow]

video from today on gavsweathervids some signs that cold and even possibility of snow during next month

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFSO68PX9lg

[Skullzrulerz]

video from today on gavsweathervids some signs that cold and even possibility of snow during next month

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFSO68PX9lg

Yep just watched seems to no let up of cold.

[Buriedundersnow]

Hello, this doesn't look too bad.

 

 

yeah nicely showing on the 30hpa chart on the 6z aswell

 

 

still showing at both 10hpa and 30hpa on the 12z as well

 

 

a little stronger at 30hpa

[Buriedundersnow]

Yep just watched seems to no let up of cold.

 

lets just hope they are right and we can see something from mid November onwards.

 

i'm no expert at the strat charts I posted above and the are in FI so will need to see what verifies but it looks like the PV might be moving back toward Siberia if it does we will have to see if it leaves anything behind.

 

maybe one of the strat pro's can tell me if I read that right or not.

 

would add aswell if the PV (POLAR VORTEX) moved toward Siberia it could open up our side of the hemisphere to blocking without the need of a warming to get into the PV itself

Edited October 25, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[smithyweather]

That is another 2010 style winter. I pay no heed what it says for the island of ireland though because all the models exaggerate the affects of the ocean. 

 

I think we'd still have ice days.  In 2010 we were colder than GB alot of the time. 

Edited October 25, 2013 by smithyweather

[UV-RAY]

Lets hope the CFS model after it's recent wobbles is back on the right track, December and January could come in with CET close to zero.

[Skullzrulerz]

Lets hope the CFS model after it's recent wobbles is back on the right track, December and January could come in with CET close to zero.

But we love cold

[Polar Maritime]

But we love cold

 

Is that not cold enough for you..!

[UV-RAY]

I hope the two Gav's and Scorcher don't see that video.

Is that not cold enough for you..!

Lol, obviously some won't be happy until hell freezes over.

[Buriedundersnow]

posted by JOE B on twitter

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 6m

Pattern in Europe looking more like 2009 every day, nw europe gets walloped 28.65 storm attacks UK/NW France Sunday pm/mon gales heavy rain

 

also

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 5m

Wet and wild Nov 2009 UK followed by severe cold in winter as block developed. Eurasian snow very similar to that right now

[RCT]

Check this out!!  http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartscfsukavmaxweek.php?chart=cfses4avmaxukweek11.gif

[feb1991blizzard]

Nothing great but a bit better looking 240.

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

Years with July CET 17.3 or higher and October CET 10.9 or higher (approx top 50 and ties):

 

YEAR  __ JUL __ OCT ___NOV _ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR ___

 

1666 __ 18.0 __ 11.0 __ 6.0 __ 3.0 __ 0.0 __ 4.0 __ 2.0 ___ 1667

1759 __ 18.2 __ 10.9 __ 5.1 __ 2.5 __ 1.9 __ 3.8 __ 6.6 ___ 1760

1779 __ 17.9 __ 10.9 __ 5.7 __ 3.1 _ -0.9 __ 2.1 __ 7.9 ___ 1780

1793 __ 17.6 __ 11.3 __ 6.0 __ 5.3 __ 1.8 __ 7.2 __ 7.0 ___ 1794

1818 __ 18.2 __ 12.0 __ 9.5 __ 3.6 __ 5.0 __ 4.3 __ 7.8 ___ 1819

1826 __ 17.9 __ 11.1 __ 4.4 __ 5.8 __ 1.7 __ 0.7 __ 5.9 ___ 1827

1921 __ 18.5 __ 12.8 __ 4.6 __ 6.5 __ 3.7 __ 4.4 __ 4.6 ___ 1922

1949 __ 17.4 __ 11.7 __ 6.6 __ 5.8 __ 4.2 __ 5.3 __ 7.4 ___ 1950

1959 __ 17.3 __ 12.6 __ 7.1 __ 6.0 __ 3.8 __ 4.1 __ 6.4 ___ 1960

1989 __ 18.2 __ 11.7 __ 6.2 __ 4.9 __ 6.5 __ 7.3 __ 8.3 ___ 1990

1995 __ 18.6 __ 12.9 __ 7.7 __ 2.3 __ 4.3 __ 2.5 __ 4.5 ___ 1996

2006 __ 19.7 __ 13.0 __ 8.1 __ 6.5 __ 7.0 __ 5.8 __ 7.2 ___ 2007

 

means _ 18.1 __ 11.9 __ 6.5 __ 4.5 __ 3.2 __ 4.3 __ 6.3

 

In general these cases have generated colder winters in the more distant past than in recent cases, with the exception of Dec 1995, most winter months have been above normal, whereas in the Dalton and earlier cases, a large spread but many below normal months.

 

This may not mean anything at all, but if people were wondering what this July-October warm couplet might portend, these are the closer analogues. Of these, 1959(-60) appears closest to my winter forecast with 1921-22 second closest and 1949-50 third.

 

A more detailed comparison might involve other months of the year.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[bluearmy]

certainly some interest in the fi op charts, especially from a NH perspective.

[feb1991blizzard]

certainly some interest in the fi op charts, especially from a NH perspective.

 

Yes, I still doubt that 240 chart would result in a proper cold snap, the ridging just doesn't look sharp enough, at least its trended better today though.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes, I still doubt that 240 chart would result in a proper cold snap, the ridging just doesn't look sharp enough, at least its trended better today though.

It's a better set up, looks similar to the latter part of last November which did bring some pretty cold weather. Got some snow here, though not really of the settling variety

Just want out of any Bartlett-esque scenario really. Though the last week has been pretty decent, warm with some interesting spells of heavy thundery rain/showers interspersed with sunny spells

Edited October 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[feb1991blizzard]

It's a better set up, looks similar to the latter part of last November which did bring some pretty cold weather. Got some snow here, though not really of the settling variety

Just want out of any Bartlett-esque scenario really. Though the last week has been pretty decent, warm with some interesting spells of heavy thundery rain/showers interspersed with sunny spells

 

Yes improvents to the hemispheric patter still better than a kick up the ____ and a step nearer something better.

[bluearmy]

i was referring to the split p/v on gfs and the developing nw/se trend on ecm for the jet.  digging a euro trough would be a significant route forward for early season cold.

[Gavin Hannah]

Its too early for anything decent away from high ground. One more month then i can start getting properly excited about cold shots developing.

[smithyweather]

Well actually we usually get our first snow between anytime now and mid November.

[gary1365]

where exactly do you live at the top of binevenagh

Edited October 25, 2013 by gary1365

[feb1991blizzard]

Well actually we usually get our first snow between anytime now and mid November.

 

 

Ive just had a look at the topography of Northern Ireland and you must live to the North of Limavady where elevation gets over 1000ft to get the sort of climate your talking about and there are some homes there.

where exactly do you live at the top of binevenagh

 

To be fair there are some decent elevations, Limavady center no chance of regular snow in late Oct but there are some big hills.

Edited October 25, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[smithyweather]

where exactly do you live at the top of binevenagh

Nope just remember to previous years. It always snows at some point in November. 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/foyle_and_west/7698037.stm

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1017/307546-weather/

 

 

That sign is at like 260m and this is October.

 

Can't remember when last years first snow was but I think it was the start of November.

Edited October 25, 2013 by smithyweather

[feb1991blizzard]

Nope just remember to previous years. It always snows at some point in November. 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/foyle_and_west/7698037.stm

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1017/307546-weather/

 

 

That sign is at like 260m and this is October.

 

Can't remember when last years first snow was but I think it was the start of November.

 

True but I had settling snow in Birmingham at around 200m then but its the only time I have ever seen snow in October in any location I have lived.