Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[pandit-scholar]

Whether by accident or design, I hope he's damn well right - something big needs, nay must happen to avenge this dreadful summer that refuses to die.

If I am allowed to on here, I can post the links to the YouTube videos where he gives those forecasts . Edited September 8, 2013 by pandit-scholar

[Methuselah]

If I am allowed to on here, I can post the links to the YouTube videos where he gives those forecasts .

If it's already on Youtube it should be okay...

[Polar Maritime]

I had a sneaky peak myself early'er.

 

Brace yourselves....

[swfc]

Hope everyonehad a good summer .regarding gp I think he will be a big miss on this forum esp with any newcomers altho jh ete are top contributors.anyway good look gp and roll on those tumbling temps and sheffield streamers !

[Methuselah]

Whatever this is all about, it'd be more suited to the 'Dogs on the Beach' thread: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19b58awaZLQ

[laserguy]

Looks like some global warming propaganda clip - you seen one you've seen 'em all.

[MPG]

You seem to be a new user so won't know how wrong that statement is!

 

GP has been a very impressive forecaster and has, apparently, been snapped up and is getting paid for it now.

 

This is what he last posted.

 

"Regulars will know that I champion a non numerical weather model approach to long range weather forecasting - that in order to accept a model forecast you must first understand and form an opinion of how the global pattern is being driven. This has had its failures, but it's had its successes too. These successes have not gone un-noticed and I've been fortunate enough to have been offered a role with a large multinational providing consultative long range weather forecasts. A tremendous challenge but one I'm very keen on.This requires complete dedication and precludes any public forecasting role.Therefore, this posting will be my last on Netweather."

 

We had a poor-ish winter for snow down here last winter compared to those further north. As a result I'm expecting a better one this year in comparison to others. If elsewhere has less we'll feel as though we aren't as left out!

A new signed up member yes, but been for years. Anyway does anyone have the link to his video forecast for last winter? I did remember GP saying about temperatures being very below average at times.

[Summer Sun]

A new signed up member yes, but been for years. Anyway does anyone have the link to his video forecast for last winter? I did remember GP saying about temperatures being very below average at times.

 

This was Stewart's early thoughts - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-thoughts-2012;sess= - Early Signals Pointing To A Colder Than Average Winter

 

This was the official forecast - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2012;sess= - Colder Than Average Winter Forecast

 

Key Points

[*]Colder Than Average Winter Expected

[*]Prolonged Cold Spells Likeliest in December & January

[*]Rainfall Below Average - Low Confidence

December was slightly warmer than average +0.6 above the anomaly

 

January was only slightly colder than average -0.3 below the anomaly

 

February was also slightly below average at 0.6 below the anomaly

 

Overall winter was just below average the mean winter temperature was 3.3°C which is 0.4°C below the long term average

 

Spells of notably mild weather occurred in late December and early January, and notably cold weather in early December, mid to late January, and the latter part of February

Edited September 8, 2013 by Summer Sun

[MPG]

 

This was Stewart's early thoughts - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-thoughts-2012;sess= - Early Signals Pointing To A Colder Than Average Winter

 

This was the official forecast - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2012;sess= - Colder Than Average Winter Forecast

 

Key Points

[*]Colder Than Average Winter Expected

[*]Prolonged Cold Spells Likeliest in December & January

[*]Rainfall Below Average - Low Confidence

 

Brilliant - Thank you Summer Sun.

[pandit-scholar]

Here are Steve's forecast for autum and winter 2013/14:

Part one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6HeVAExBLk

Part two:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rIUULZ3x8w&feature=player_embedded&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D8rIUULZ3x8w%26feature%3Dplayer_embedded&nomobile=1

Here is his video emphasising the similarities between 1962 and 2013.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cxDHIAr1no

Better buy a bunker and stock up on a big supply of salt!!! LOL

Edited September 8, 2013 by pandit-scholar

[Summer Sun]

Here are Steve's forecast for autum and winter 2013/14:Part one:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6HeVAExBLkPart two:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rIUULZ3x8w&feature=player_embedded&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D8rIUULZ3x8w%26feature%3Dplayer_embedded&nomobile=1Here is his video emphasising the similarities between 1962 and 2013.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cxDHIAr1noBetter buy a bunker and stock up on a big supply of salt!!!

 

The salt would be better with a huge pinch in my opinion

[Methuselah]

30 seconds was quite long enough!

[pandit-scholar]

30 seconds was quite long enough!

Might interest The Express though!!

[yido]

I like it. The summer of 62 was warm, like this year. Then the following winter was cold, thus this winter will be cold. The most complex of ideas explained in a couple of sentences, genius!

[Mark Neal.]

Oh dear. How anyone can believe this tripe i do not know.. Making Madden sound like GP, and that is saying something lol 

[Tim Bland]

The pattern matching and similarities are very loose. Of course there will be a low pressure in October at some point! Ill reserve judgment until the end of the winter. My gut tells me he will be in the same class as James Madden. Making ice age forecasts year in year out while the express pay him £500 a time to print it

[Radiating Dendrite]

Any one who forecasts a hurricane over Britain has no meteorological knowledge! A hurricane is a tropical system that cannot form over the north Atlantic.

What a joker....... makes Madden look like Einstein!

[feb1991blizzard]

Any one who forecasts a hurricane over Britain has no meteorological knowledge! A hurricane is a tropical system that cannot form over the north Atlantic.What a joker....... makes Madden look like Einstein!

 

We dammed had a very near hurricane in 1987, although I take your point about Madden though, as he forecasts one every Autumn.

[Tim Bland]

Just made myself watch the video and full and fuming with the Bull sh*t that is in there! He says we will have a hurricane in October because of the August hot spell in the uk warming the sea around us! He doesn't understand where and how they form!

Sorry had to switch of when he starts making reference to film " the Day After tommorow" lol

[feb1991blizzard]

I haven't watched the video yet as I cannot get it to work on my computer.

[Summer Sun]

I like it. The summer of 62 was warm, like this year. Then the following winter was cold, thus this winter will be cold. The most complex of ideas explained in a couple of sentences, genius!

 

That's not necessarily true though 

 

what about 76 what followed that summer in the following winter?

 

Summer 2003 was hot and the winter that followed was a mild winter with above average rain

 

December 2003

 

A very changeable month across all parts. Most areas, except for Northern Ireland, experienced above average rainfall. Mean temperature slightly above average across all of the UK, with most Eastern areas having well above average sunshine.

 

January 2004

 

Another mild month across the UK. Rainfall was above average across most areas, with eastern areas receiving well above average. The best of the sunshine was in the south and east, with northwestern having less than average sunshine.

 

February 2004

 

A very mild and wet start to the month, but ending cold with widespread frosts and snow, in most areas. Very sunny across most of the UK, except for parts of south-east England and the Northern Isles which had around average sunshine.

Capel Curig (Conwy) registered 260 mm in 48 hours during the 3rd & 4th. Gravesend (Kent) recorded a high of 17.9 °C on 4th, whilst Sennybridge (Powys) recorded a low of - 10.9 °C on 27th. Durris (Aberdeenshire) reported 25 cm, and Glenlivet (Moray) reported 18 cm, of lying snow on 28th.

 

Summer 2006 was also a hot one what followed was another mild winter

 

December 2006

 

Mean temperatures, 1 to 2°C above average across the UK, which confirmed that 2006 was the warmest year on record for most areas (areal series back to 1914). Very wet over most of western Scotland and also parts of north-west England and north Wales, with many stations reporting over double the average rainfall. In contrast, some eastern coastal areas saw below average rainfall, with well below average rainfall in the Aberdeen area. Sunshine exceptionally above average across much of eastern Scotland and north-east England.

 

January 2007

 

Mean temperatures ranging from around 1.5°C above average across the Northern Isles to over 3.5°C above average across some areas of central England. Provisionally over the UK, it was the warmest January since 1916, and second warmest in areal series back to 1914. Well above average rainfall across much of western Scotland, with Scotland W district area having its wettest January since 1993. In contrast, parts of Eastern Scotland and southernmost areas of England had slightly below average rainfall. Sunshine was generally above average with the best of the sunshine compared to average across E and NE England. However, some western areas of Scotland received below average sunshine.

 

February 2007

 

Mean temperatures generally 2 to 3 °C above average across England, Wales and Scotland, but only around 1 to 1.5 °C above average across Northern Ireland. Most areas had above average rainfall, with over double the average rainfall across parts of SW England, much of SE England and E Scotland. The SE & Central S England district area provisionally had its wettest February since 1990 and highest monthly rainfall anomaly since November 2002. Sunshine levels were well above average across NE England, but below average across Northern Scotland.

 

 

So as you can see our last 2 hot summers were both followed by mild overall and for some wet winters. Summer 2013 was a hot one so if a mild wet winter follows overall no one should be surprised

Edited September 8, 2013 by Summer Sun

[hillbilly]

what makes me laugh most is how convinced he is yet he almost looks like he is making it up as hes going along

[Dancerwithwings]

The Day After tommorow MY A..RSE

 

That's about as far ahead as he could forecast "The Day After tommorow"

 

(feb1991blizzard) "I haven't watched the video yet as I cannot get it to work on my computer " Don't bother.....100% complete nonsense

By the way as he left school yet ? Or is it me he looks about 14   I almost feel sorry for the lad !

Edited September 8, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Karl83]

What planet is he on.

[Summer Sun]

First of all he's no older than a teenager

 

I thought everyone knew Hurricanes don't affect the UK shows you how much he knows