Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[lorenzo]

Thanks Lorenzo, no need to rake over the whole thing again but I support the points made by SM at the time.

 

Not raking Ian, just directing others towards the explanation given to provide some context. It was a helluva debate at the time.

[Buriedundersnow]

Nope. The jet is north in eastern USA they are also having a warm autumn.

 

sorry I was talking about what we are seeing on the models and the dip the east of the US is about to see

[Conor Sherwin]

[Buriedundersnow]

 

 

[SE Blizzards]

Bonkers Control 18z run tonight. No doubt be showing something completely different by the morning, but just thought i would post it as charts like these are always nice to look at this time of year 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?18

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-0-384.png?18

Edited October 22, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[syed2878]

disapointing though it is lets hope the lrm's swings back we get a better update in nov. A qs. There was alot talk about rising solar activity, could that have any effect on the long turm models?

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/workshops/2011/MOS13/presentations/Hewson.pdf

Presenation about the UKMO model.

[Summer Sun]

And now we have Jamstec in for October which goes cooler than average winter though not quite as cold as last months update

 

 

Rainfall looks average for all but parts of western Scotland where its shown to be lower than normal and maybe the extreme south west where it could be marginally above average

 

[tight isobar]

Yes jamstec not nudging in regards,to colder than av,although agreed not quite as intense as previous output..although I personaly regard this mod, as one that ends nearly always close to the money.!!!

[Gavin Hannah]

disapointing though it is lets hope the lrm's swings back we get a better update in nov. A qs. There was alot talk about rising solar activity, could that have any effect on the long turm models?

 

There has indeed been an up tick in Sunspot numbers. However, as more knowledgeable peeps have mentioned, its the 10.7cm Flux level that is more influential on our weather  (upper atmosphere).  Here is a plot showing the current situation.

 

#

 

And as you can see, it's low, and very low compared to the predicted levels for this current maximum cycle.

[Methuselah]

And now we have Jamstec in for October which goes cooler than average winter though not quite as cold as last months update

 

 

Rainfall looks average for all but parts of western Scotland where its shown to be lower than normal and maybe the extreme south west where it could be marginally above average

 

Seems as if the seasonals have us prepared for just about every possible type of winter there, SS? And, it's still only October! 

[DOdo]

If Jamstec was calling for a mild winter the writing would be on the wall. It is two out of three and is not convincing at that. Anything is possible now.enjoy the rollercoaster while it lasts

[johnholmes]

http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/workshops/2011/MOS13/presentations/Hewson.pdf

Presenation about the UKMO model.

 

well worth a read folks; it gives a good idea of how they feel they are doing and also just how complex this area of forecasting is

Edited October 22, 2013 by johnholmes

[snowking]

 

There has indeed been an up tick in Sunspot numbers. However, as more knowledgeable peeps have mentioned, its the 10.7cm Flux level that is more influential on our weather  (upper atmosphere).  Here is a plot showing the current situation.

 

#

 

 

 

Unfortunately in the two weeks since the above was compiled (its only updated monthly) there has been a notable increase in both sunspot numbers and 10.7cm flux.

 

I keep my own records for this now and this comes from the SESC daily counts - its calculated in a slightly different way to the ISES measurements, but it provides an overview of the general trend.

 

 

As you can see, after a quiet September, so far October has seen a rather large increase in activity.

 

It's nothing to panic about for now, as it tends to need extensive periods of change for it to have an affect over the course of a season, but it ties in nicely with the idea of a less impressive first half to the season from many quarters.

 

Of course it can also be viewed in a different light - with flux creeping up to levels near 150, the Labitzke et al. work on QBO/Solar Activity then proves more promising in terms of any potential SSW

 

SK

Edited October 22, 2013 by snowking

[Gavin Hannah]

Wasn't aware of that SK. But agree with what you said. It takes prolonged periods of certain conditions to have a noticeable effect on the atmosphere. 

[lorenzo]

well wort a read folks; it gives a good idea of how they feel they are doing and also just how complex this area of forecasting is

 

I liked this quote towards the end as it highlights we are into a new ballpark so to speak with respect to how Winter has behaved over the last 20 years or so. Cohen's study took things back to probabilistic forecasting, it would seem that the dynamical models whilst capturing for example the prediction for ENSO well, are less useful elsewhere.

 

Much more probabilistic slant, highlighting the full range of possible solutions, placing these in the context of climatology, and in particular in the context of the recent past.

 

Also that 'Drivers of Predictability' screen used in conjunction with ECMWF is brilliant.

 

Info on Glosea5 here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/user-guide/technical-glosea5

Edited October 22, 2013 by lorenzo

[Summer Sun]

And the final long range model for October to update is the Beijing Climate Center

 

For temperatures its going above normal

 

 

For rainfall its going for average to below average

 

[UV-RAY]

And the final long range model for October to update is the Beijing Climate Center

 

For temperatures its going above normal

 

 

For rainfall its going for average to below average

 

The Bejing model has been going for above normal temps for this coming winter for the last two or three updates, yet when you look at the warm anomalies over Greenland that would suggest blocking in that area.

[Gavin Hannah]

And the final long range model for October to update is the Beijing Climate Center

 

For temperatures its going above normal

 

 

For rainfall its going for average to below average

 

 

I had to tear my eyes out!!!  

 

Sceptical Inquirer, on 22 Oct 2013 - 12:38, said:

The Bejing model has been going for above normal temps for this coming winter for the last two or three updates, yet when you look at the warm anomalies over Greenland that would suggest blocking in that area.

 

 

 

 

It seems many of the models want to place us in the "mild zone" of the blocking. I refuse to accept this lol. We will be cold and white (Esp on Dec 25th), and so help me Thor if we aren't!

Edited October 22, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[Don]

And the final long range model for October to update is the Beijing Climate Center

 

For temperatures its going above normal

 

 

For rainfall its going for average to below average

 

 

Colder than average conditions shown to be very close to the south though on this update.

[feb1991blizzard]

No way oct is going to be below average for either category.

[BornFromTheVoid]

And the final long range model for October to update is the Beijing Climate Center

 

For temperatures its going above normal

 

 

For rainfall its going for average to below average

 

 

Judging by the warmth predicted over the tropical Pacific, that may also be going for a +ve ENSO/El Nino during the winter. That doesn't seem all that likely at the moment, and so a change in the state of ENSO could throw many LRFs completely off.

[Gael_Force]

I prefer to look at the Z500 on a NH view. Looks like a southerly track for the jet stream is forecast there.

 

[lorenzo]

With respect to SSTA's around Greenland, had a quick trawl on Weatherbell for these maps for folk to nosey through and compare. Initial glance for this year echoes 2006, but you could argue for a couple of the other years too.

 

2010 the monster exception and just astounding, of course led to the black hole anomaly charts and also the excellent NASA article on Blocking. 

 

Again, it would seem we are already on the search for the Holy Grail Greenland Block, including this image as there are many newer folks on this thread and this visual explains clearly the influence. Fact remains this was a massive exception and expectations/ comparisons continue to be based around this year which of course makes things altogether more complicated.

 

2006 / 2007 / 2008

 

 

2009 / 2010 / 2011

 

 

2012 / 2013

 

 

[Yarmy]

With respect to SSTA's around Greenland, had a quick trawl on Weatherbell for these maps for folk to nosey through and compare. Initial glance for this year echoes 2006, but you could argue for a couple of the other years too.

 

2010 the monster exception and just astounding, of course led to the black hole anomaly charts and also the excellent NASA article on Blocking.

 

Again, it would seem we are already on the search for the Holy Grail Greenland Block, including this image as there are many newer folks on this thread and this visual explains clearly the influence. Fact remains this was a massive exception and expectations/ comparisons continue to be based around this year which of course makes things altogether more complicated.

a82b3_httpi.imwx.comwebmultimediaimagescontent1111_greenlandblock.jpg

 

2006 / 2007 / 2008

 

2006.png2007.png2008.png

 

2009 / 2010 / 2011

 

2009.png2010.png2011.png

 

2012 / 2013

 

2012.png2013.png

 

What's notable is how cool the Arctic ocean is in comparison to other years. Data issue?