Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[SnowObsessor90]

If nothing else I hope that these high night time temperatures we have currently don't become too much of a persistent feature over the months to come, that type of thing should be reserved for the Summer months only.

[Don]

See attached. This winter uses a newer version of the model though.

Wow, much better than today's update! However, if I remember correctly this model flipped to a mild outlook on December's update showing high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north? It is disappointing to see a downgrade after last month though, although perhaps not surprising. I think at this early stage it is perhaps looking like Winter could at least have a mild start.

[Summer Sun]

Wow, much better than today's update! However, if I remember correctly this model flipped to a mild outlook on December's update showing high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north? It is disappointing to see a downgrade after last month though, although perhaps not surprising. I think at this early stage it is perhaps looking like Winter could at least have a mild start.

 

Yes it did

 

 

November's update was closer (-0.4 below normal)

 

[Tim Bland]

If nothing else I hope that these high night time temperatures we have currently don't become too much of a persistent feature over the months to come, that type of thing should be reserved for the Summer months only.

I take it you haven't had your 10% gas price increase yet then 😄 I love cold and snow but if it's mild at least we will all save a few £100 !

[smithyweather]

Quite a downgrade on the GLOSEA4 model it has to be said. It's a model I rate quite highly aswell. That scenario would bring quite a lot of crud around the top of a mid Atlantic high which isn't far N enough to allow us to tap into the colder air. Benign and uneventful pretty much sums that run up.

The annoying thing is that the British isles always seems to be at the pheriphery of the cold weather. Like right now cold uppers are only about 400 miles away.. If we moved ourselves to 15west (well me) and upto 60n I think we'd get cold winters. Edited October 21, 2013 by smithyweather

[smithyweather]

If nothing else I hope that these high night time temperatures we have currently don't become too much of a persistent feature over the months to come, that type of thing should be reserved for the Summer months only.

Yes the actual daytime temps are not that much above average but the nightime temps are about 5 or 6c above average. Its rediculous. I wouldn't mind if it was 10c everyday if it reached -1 or -2c every night. But alas thats never gonna happen. Although tbh it was 6c this morning which was a bit surprising.

[Don]

Yes it did

November's update was closer (-0.4 below normal)

Infact I think many of the models flipped to a mild outlook last December. I remember many on here we're hoping that a SSW would derail them and that is what happened!

[feb1991blizzard]

Infact I think many of the models flipped to a mild outlook last December. I remember many on here we're hoping that a SSW would derail them and that is what happened!

 

Yes, SSW was always likely to happen but the big question was, is it likely to tonk the tropospheric PV and it did, in style.

[cheeky_monkey]

as for this winter and the pattern we are seeing just now and maybe one of the more experienced in here can help me out as I may be wrong.

 

is there any chance the pattern we are seeing set just now is purely down to these typhoons recurving in the pacific towards Alaska which in turn is forcing the jet to dip over the eastern US then rise back up the east coast through the atlantic and driving the zonal flow we are seeing just now as this isn't allowing the jet to be forced south toward spain and in turn the dip of the jet in the eastern US is helping take the PV over that way as well and we cant look any further till we get the recurving in the pacific out of the way.

 

just a thought and I may be wrong.

The jet over the pacific and North America has been locked into this pattern since the beginning of August and does not look like changing in the next 2 weeks at least..maybe its good to get it out of the way now rather than having it locked through the winter.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes, SSW was always likely to happen but the big question was, is it likely to tonk the tropospheric PV and it did, in style.

 

I doubt very much a stratospheric warming event will occur this year sadly. I think it's going to be a case of making the most out of the base state that the strat and other factors throw at us. Though I'm no expert on the strat so I may be completely wrong. However, given the +QBO and relatively low solar output, I never thought an SSW would be achieved this coming winter. We may see a number of smaller, tropospherically led warmings though if we can achieve the correct tropospheric synoptics to initiate them.

 

I'm sure Chiono or someone will correct me but that's how I see things panning out.

 

The GLOSEA update is a kick in the cahoonas TBH and the more zonal CFS updates seem to be on the increase recently. Let's hope the November updates are slightly better

[UV-RAY]

I doubt very much a stratospheric warming event will occur this year sadly. I think it's going to be a case of making the most out of the base state that the strat and other factors throw at us. Though I'm no expert on the strat so I may be completely wrong. However, given the +QBO and relatively low solar output, I never thought an SSW would be achieved this coming winter. We may see a number of smaller, tropospherically led warmings though if we can achieve the correct tropospheric synoptics to initiate them.

 

I'm sure Chiono or someone will correct me but that's how I see things panning out.

 

The GLOSEA update is a kick in the cahoonas TBH and the more zonal CFS updates seem to be on the increase recently. Let's hope the November updates are slightly better

Tis only weather CC and in the words of my daughter, CHILLAX!

 

 

Also with regards to the +QBO, if you look back at past events then the correlation between either a + or - QBO being favourable for cold isn't  as clear cut with both cold and mild winters occurring in either set up.

Edited October 21, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Catacol]

Glosea4 makes for some interesting viewing, but tbh I cant get excited about met office output that only presents us with an average over 3 months. That's 90+ days of weather. Of what use at all are these probability or mean maps over such a long period? I would be much more interested in data output on a month by month basis, but we are not given access to that. It almost guarantees a vague prediction which cannot then be analysed in detail. If the met had any great confidence in this model then they would present the data differently - or perhaps they just want us all to pay for more access so make the free version almost worthless.

 

Of far more interest I think is the EC32 output and we know via Fergie that the Met places a fair bit of weight on that. Good job we have Matt to give us updates on that model.

 

So whether you look at NDJ, DJF or JFM you get a picture of above average heights in the mid atlantic and a very strong positive anomaly over Russia. Identical averages. There is no way we will get a 5 month fixed pattern like that so why pay it any attention?

Edited October 21, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[Yarmy]

Are peeps confusing projected anomalies with eventual synoptics? It is indeed only October! 

 

Indeed, but apparently many have given up. I don't see how the long range models that were wrong a few weeks ago are now suddenly right. People need to look at the uncertainty levels in these things: they are off the scale. The CFS ensemble areas that are above 0.3 skillwise cover about 10% of the entire globe. That's not meant as a criticism either, it's just that the problem is so difficult (and perhaps intractable) and I regard the LRMs as developing experiments.

 

As for past performance, well, there seem to be quite a few examples of the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy there, e.g. the such-and-such got late Jan close last year or whatever.

 

Bottom line is that nobody knows. Last year a shortwave scuppered a significant cold spell progged by the models in the semi-reliable range mid-Dec and the month ended up running out mild. If you can find a model that could predict that sort of detail at this range then good luck.

 

If I were pushed for a forecast, I'd say mild with occasional cold incursions because, you know, it's the UK (the last few years notwithstanding).

[Cheshire Freeze]

Indeed, but apparently many have given up. I don't see how the long range models that were wrong a few weeks ago are now suddenly right. People need to look at the uncertainty levels in these things: they are off the scale. The CFS ensemble areas that are above 0.3 skillwise cover about 10% of the entire globe. That's not meant as a criticism either, it's just that the problem is so difficult (and perhaps intractable) and I regard the LRMs as developing experiments.

 

As for past performance, well, there seem to be quite a few examples of the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy there, e.g. the such-and-such got late Jan close last year or whatever.

 

Bottom line is that nobody knows. Last year a shortwave scuppered a significant cold spell progged by the models in the semi-reliable range mid-Dec and the month ended up running out mild. If you can find a model that could predict that sort of detail at this range then good luck.

 

If I were pushed for a forecast, I'd say mild with occasional cold incursions because, you know, it's the UK (the last few years notwithstanding).

 

The shortwave didn't scupper the cold. The long wave pattern that was susceptible to the formation of said shortwave scuppered the cold. The cold was never coming at that particular juncture- I said that in the model thread at the time and got a lot of grief for it. Then what happened? The modelling flipped.

 

There is a whole world of difference between a long range model painting a broad brushstroke of the expected general LW pattern and a short-midterm model trying to fathom the intricate synoptic pattern on a regional basis.

Edited October 21, 2013 by CreweCold

[Ian Brown]

#

 

Bottom line is that nobody knows. Last year a shortwave scuppered a significant cold spell progged by the models in the semi-reliable range mid-Dec and the month ended up running out mild. If you can find a model that could predict that sort of detail at this range then good luck.

 

Very much so, a scupperer that threw everyone off course - including GP, the METO and the Daily Mail. 

 

 

 

 

My feeling is that HLB will be hard to achieve with the QBO phase, but I don't think that there will be a great deal of barreling zonality either. Although partly responsive to other factors, I feel that pressure over Europe is a key factor. Without persistent low anomalies in Jan/Feb of this year, the jet would have ridden through the weak blocking that we had rather than deflecting.

Edited October 21, 2013 by Ian Brown

[Ian Brown]

The shortwave didn't scupper the cold. The long wave pattern that was susceptible to the formation of said shortwave scuppered the cold. The cold was never coming at that particular juncture- I said that in the model thread at the time and got a lot of grief for it. Then what happened? The modelling flipped.

 

There is a whole world of difference between a long range model painting a broad brushstroke of the expected general LW pattern and a short-midterm model trying to fathom the intricate synoptic pattern on a regional basis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

How can we prove that that was the case ? The shortwave formed in exactly the spot that would scupper the High from making the linkage. How can we say that it was related to the Pacific jet ?

Edited October 21, 2013 by Ian Brown

[feb1991blizzard]

 

#

 

Bottom line is that nobody knows. Last year a shortwave scuppered a significant cold spell progged by the models in the semi-reliable range mid-Dec and the month ended up running out mild. If you can find a model that could predict that sort of detail at this range then good luck.

 

Very much so, a scupperer that threw everyone off course - including GP, the METO and the Daily Mail. 

 

 

 

 

My feeling is that HLB will be hard to achieve with the QBO phase, but I don't think that there will be a great deal of barreling zonality either. Although partly responsive to other factors, I feel that pressure over Europe is a key factor. Without persistent low anomalies in Jan/Feb of this year, the jet would have ridden through the weak blocking that we had rather than deflecting.

 

 

But according to the experts, and by that i mean the real experts, the shortwave didn't dictate the longwave pattern at all and worked the other way around, i do however think that it is such a small island that its very difficult to predict detail in the BI

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's easy Ian. Shortwaves don't single handedly disrupt an entire hemispheric pattern. If the atmosphere was primed for a -NAO then the SW would only have proved a temporary blip before the tropospheric pattern locked back cold again. However it didn't and we endured a period of zonality which had its impetus from the Pacific jet.

 

The troposphere only became primed for a cold pattern to emerge after the initiation of the SSW in January.

 

I would have thought this would have been pretty obvious to an intelligent bloke like yourself.

But according to the experts, and by that i mean the real experts, the shortwave didn't dictate the longwave pattern at all and worked the other way around, i do however think that it is such a small island that its very difficult to predict detail in the BI

 

Exactly

Edited October 21, 2013 by CreweCold

[bobbydog]

just to reinforce the point of long range models, especially over a whole 3 month period,

 

remember winter '09/'10  and '10/'11?

 

note the issue dates-

 

 

 

 

[lorenzo]

If anyone wants a detailed explanation regarding this debate look here. A little superficial to just say it was the Pacific Jet when this explanation details more clearly the broader pattern.

[Ian Brown]

If anyone wants a detailed explanation regarding this debate look here. A little superficial to just say it was the Pacific Jet when this explanation details more clearly the broader pattern.

Thanks Lorenzo, no need to rake over the whole thing again but I support the points made by SM at the time.

[feb1991blizzard]

For the avoidance of doubt, i still think Steve Murr is the legend of this forum and would never ever diss him, i do however think that John Holmes's point last winter that the longwave pattern dictates the shortwave pattern holds true, certainly to an extent anyway, although there are times when shortwaves can have some sort of impact on local weather patterns

[feb1991blizzard]

just to reinforce the point of long range models, especially over a whole 3 month period,

 

remember winter '09/'10  and '10/'11?

 

note the issue dates-

 

 

 

 

Fair point.

[Don]

The GLOSEA update is a kick in the cahoonas TBH and the more zonal CFS updates seem to be on the increase recently. Let's hope the November updates are slightly better

Yes, the early promising signs seem to have ebbed away somewhat during the last couple of weeks. However, there is still time for things to swing back in our favour.

[smithyweather]

as for this winter and the pattern we are seeing just now and maybe one of the more experienced in here can help me out as I may be wrong.is there any chance the pattern we are seeing set just now is purely down to these typhoons recurving in the pacific towards Alaska which in turn is forcing the jet to dip over the eastern US then rise back up the east coast through the atlantic and driving the zonal flow we are seeing just now as this isn't allowing the jet to be forced south toward spain and in turn the dip of the jet in the eastern US is helping take the PV over that way as well and we cant look any further till we get the recurving in the pacific out of the way.just a thought and I may be wrong.

Nope. The jet is north in eastern USA they are also having a warm autumn.