Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[cheese]

Oh no, no, no, please not the dreaded faux cold! Not picking on you, but of all the phrases which start appearing in winter, that one gets me the most. Cold is cold, it's measurable on a thermometer, it isn't real or pretend/faux - it either is, or it isn't.

Well, 5C is cold, but it isn't cold enough for snow, so it's not considered proper cold, at least on here, and probably isn't by people in cold-winter climates.

[feb1991blizzard]

Mind you although I didn't ejoy it anywhere near as much as feb 91, that aforementioned dec 91 spell was the most enjoyable cold spell i have seen without actually producing any snow.

[jethro]

Well, 5C is cold, but it isn't cold enough for snow, so it's not considered proper cold, at least on here, and probably isn't by people in cold-winter climates.

 

Oh I know that but faux seems to get bandied about when it's cold, but the cold is caused by some mythical creature called an 'inversion'. It still creates cold weather but it's somehow not real????  How does that work?

[jethro]

Mind you although I didn't ejoy it anywhere near as much as feb 91, that aforementioned dec 91 spell was the most enjoyable cold spell i have seen without actually producing any snow.

 

Dec 91.....if memory serves me correctly, I was living in Church Fenton then (same as Cheese above). It was cold, really cold, for what seemed like weeks on end, coupled with thick, thick freezing fog. Can't say I enjoyed it much but then I had just moved into a wreck with no heating and a leaking roof.

Edited October 20, 2013 by jethro

[feb1991blizzard]

Dec 91.....if memory serves me correctly, I was living in Church Fenton then (same as Cheese above). It was cold, really cold, for what seemed like weeks on end, coupled with thick, thick freezing fog. Can't say I enjoyed it much but then I had just moved into a wreck with no heating and a leaking roof.

 

Yes, it was early dec, i was in Birmingham, was a a cold spell that got progressively colder as the week went on culminating in thick dense freezing fog on the Thursday and Friday, i will dig out the charts tomorrow.

[Mark Neal.]

I have to agree the term Faux cold i don't like either. No matter what conditions are bringing colder conditions, be it settled but chilly, it is still cold. Just because we don't have a biting Easterly flow or a deep area of low pressure undercutting giving some heavy snowfall and bitter windchill from the continent, its still cold  

[UV-RAY]

2 updates of the CFS today have been blocked runs (including the latest one). So I don't know where this despondency is coming from RE CFS.Unless some people can't be doing without some kind of perceived doom and gloom to moan about?

Over the last two weeks or so there has been a declining trend for HLB CC, yes cold charts are still there but the ratio of cold v mild charts is now about even whereas before they were 65/35 in favour of cold. Edited October 21, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[johnholmes]

Pleasing to see several others feel like me about the term 'faux cold', I think it is another of those fads that some folk like to develop rather than saying what the weather is. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Not sure whether these should be in the retro chart thread but here they are anyway, anti-cyclonic but with an increasing Easterly influence, if i remember rightly the rave scene was well underway by then.

 

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Pleasing to see several others feel like me about the term 'faux cold', I think it is another of those fads that some folk like to develop rather than saying what the weather is. 

 

Agree John that it is technically incorrect but surely you more than anyone know why this happens.

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's seasonal outlook for December and January

 

Mild December, Cold January

 

*December*

 

There are strong indications from various forecast models that December is going to a month dominated by westerly winds. This means that conditions are likely to be rather mild overall, although this does not preclude the possibility of cooler weather making an appearance from time to time, especially later in the month. It is likely to be a wetter than normal December, especially in Ireland, northern England and Scotland, with conditions to the far south being drier at times. Snow events may effect Scotland on a few days, mostly confined to high ground behind clearing cold fronts.

*January*

 

Agreement between long range forecast models at the present time that January turns into a significantly colder month. Lower pressure is expected over the south of the country with a block of high pressure building to the north. Should this pattern become established winds will be turning to the east or northeast for many bringing chilly conditions and periods of rain, sleet and snow. Drier generally in northern and western Scotland as well as western Ireland although feeling cold.

Captain Bob & Simon Keeling

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20131020

 

 

[johnholmes]

Agree John that it is technically incorrect but surely you more than anyone know why this happens.

 

I can hazard a guess, but perhaps upset one or two in the process!

some may think it sounds technical and knowledgeable?

Edited October 21, 2013 by johnholmes

[feb1991blizzard]

I can hazard a guess, but perhaps upset one or two in the process!

some may think it sounds technical and knowledgeable?

 

I think more than anything its because 'faux cold' doesn't deliver snow and 'real cold' does, i can assure you from my point of view its not done to sound technical, as you see from my dodgy terminology at times, as i often use such technical words as 'pasting' to describe snowfall!!!, the way i look at it it this thread is a bit of fun where as the MOD and learning area of course should be a no go area for wrong terminology.

[snowking]

I think the correct term people are searching for here is 'Surface Cold'.

 

I.E. we have an inversion set up with colder air at the surface promoting overnight frost and perhaps freezing fog too, but temperatures at the 850mb level are not cold enough to support snow.

 

SK

[feb1991blizzard]

I think the correct term people are searching for here is 'Surface Cold'.

 

I.E. we have an inversion set up with colder air at the surface promoting overnight frost and perhaps freezing fog too, but temperatures at the 850mb level are not cold enough to support snow.

 

SK

 

yes, that's the one!

[johnholmes]

I think the correct term people are searching for here is 'Surface Cold'.

 

I.E. we have an inversion set up with colder air at the surface promoting overnight frost and perhaps freezing fog too, but temperatures at the 850mb level are not cold enough to support snow.

 

SK

 

 

sounds good to me

[Steve C]

Possibly to illustrate the above. Here are charts from 23rd January 1963 - the coldest day (CET) of that brutal winter.

[summer blizzard]

November 2005 saw a great period of surface cold. Tonnes of fog, frost and sunshine.

The worst weather type is stratocumulus murk where you get heavy cloud but the temperature stays around 2C day and night.

[Hotspur62]

A very interesting piece by iapennell whose passion for the weather really comes across very well.My gut feeling is that he will be right certainly upto the turn of the year and maybe beyond then.However,it is still extremely difficult to make LRFs and I feel that other factors that come into play such as SSWs will may well give us colder than average temps in Jan and Feb(Here's hoping from a coldies point of view!).Only time will tell and it will be good to analyse once all the stats are in come end of March 2014.  

[Don]

 

Weather Online's seasonal outlook for December and January

 

Mild December, Cold January

 

*December*

 

There are strong indications from various forecast models that December is going to a month dominated by westerly winds. This means that conditions are likely to be rather mild overall, although this does not preclude the possibility of cooler weather making an appearance from time to time, especially later in the month. It is likely to be a wetter than normal December, especially in Ireland, northern England and Scotland, with conditions to the far south being drier at times. Snow events may effect Scotland on a few days, mostly confined to high ground behind clearing cold fronts.

*January*

 

Agreement between long range forecast models at the present time that January turns into a significantly colder month. Lower pressure is expected over the south of the country with a block of high pressure building to the north. Should this pattern become established winds will be turning to the east or northeast for many bringing chilly conditions and periods of rain, sleet and snow. Drier generally in northern and western Scotland as well as western Ireland although feeling cold.

Captain Bob & Simon Keeling

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20131020

 

 

 

Well, if this forecast comes off, I certainly won't complain!  Yes December is forecast to be mild but the cold Winters of the mid 1980's all had mild Decembers.  As always time will tell.

[Summer Sun]

The met office ensemble mean has finally updated and we have a signal for lowish pressure to dominate Greenland this winter and high pressure dominating to our west / south west as well as drifting over to the UK it would keep the Atlantic very quiet during winter, the high to our NE is further east compared to the September update

 

 

Rainfall looks slightly below average

 

 

We are only awaiting on jamstec to update now for October

Edited October 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[UV-RAY]

Going off those charts it could turn out a cold and mostly dry winter period with any inroads made by the atlantic coming over the top of those heights in the mid atlantic, I have too say though with a ridge in the mid Atlantic then surely it would be only a matter of time before this migrated into Greenland at some point. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Going off those charts it could turn out a cold and mostly dry winter period with any inroads made by the atlantic coming over the top of those heights in the mid atlantic, I have too say though with a ridge in the mid Atlantic then surely it would be only a matter of time before this migrated into Greenland at some point. 

 

Agree but i have to say these LRM's are downgrading just at the wrong point.

[Summer Sun]

Going off those charts it could turn out a cold and mostly dry winter period with any inroads made by the atlantic coming over the top of those heights in the mid atlantic, I have too say though with a ridge in the mid Atlantic then surely it would be only a matter of time before this migrated into Greenland at some point. 

 

Looking beyond Feb the Jan to March outlook shows the high just hitting Iceland but other than that it continues to keep the Atlantic quiet as we start spring

 

 

2m temps for December to Feb look pretty much on average

 

Agree but i have to say these LRM's are downgrading just at the wrong point.

 

TBH all the cold charts appeared way too early IMO if they started to appear now then maybe we could have more confidence but when they appeared so early the downgrades seemed inevitable to me

 

Overall we could be looking at a fairly quiet winter no worse than slightly below average no better than slightly above with below average rainfall

Edited October 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[forecaster]

The met office ensemble mean has finally updated and we have a signal for lowish pressure to dominate Greenland this winter and high pressure dominating to our west / south west as well as drifting over to the UK it would keep the Atlantic very quiet during winter, the high to our NE is further east compared to the September update

 

 

 

Rainfall looks slightly below average

 

 

 

We are only awaiting on jamstec to update now for October

 

 

 

Just out of interest, I have attached the Met Office forecast for winter 2010/2011 and for winter 2011/2012 issued in the corresponding Octobers. The model has apparently improved since then. I think it's version 5 now. 

 

As you can see, for both these winters it picked the general pattern nicely. 

Edited October 21, 2013 by forecaster