Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Methuselah]

steve Simmonds ...make him head of met office,he is either a genius or is having a laugh!

expect the worst hurricane in 300 years in October and the worst winter in 300 years from jan to april then 5 years of more normal weather.

Due to historical weather cycles and not global warming!

Just a seasonal problem with wind?

[Frozen Britain]

Interesting post on The weather outlook for winter

 

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postsm530438_Winter-2013-14-Prospects-and-Forecasts.aspx#post530438

Not good at all. This is why December 2010 became mild after Christmas, and January and February were mild.

I remember Glacier Point commenting on this in the run up to winter:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64621-stratosphere-temperature-watch/?p=1879054

This is the link to his post above. His post is on page 4 of the thread.

Edited September 8, 2013 by Frozen Britain

[Jax]

Just a seasonal problem with wind?

I have it all year.

[Summer Sun]

Hi!Don't know where to post this but this, but there is a young guy who has a Facebook page called "Steves Winter forecast". He forecasts a category 3 hurricane over the UK in October and a 6 month severe winter, the worst for 300 years (worse than 1962/1963) until April 2014. He has posted videos on YouTube explaining why!I will leave it up to you as to what you think of that. At first I had a big laugh at what he was forecasting and thought he was putting up for a laugh. However he's been forecasting this hurricane since February. He actually foretasted the weather for August and September quite accurately a month ago. He even forecasted the February winter storms in NE USA two weeks before it happened. However I am still taking it with a pinch of salt!!!

 

And we though James Madden was bad!

 

Lets be fair you could have got the August / September forecast easy from the seasonal models IE CFS

[laserguy]

Hi!Don't know where to post this but this, but there is a young guy who has a Facebook page called "Steves Winter forecast". He forecasts a category 3 hurricane over the UK in October and a 6 month severe winter, the worst for 300 years (worse than 1962/1963) until April 2014. He has posted videos on YouTube explaining why! 

Whether by accident or design, I hope he's damn well right - something big needs, nay must happen to avenge this dreadful summer that refuses to die.

[Gavin Hannah]

Hi!Don't know where to post this but this, but there is a young guy who has a Facebook page called "Steves Winter forecast". He forecasts a category 3 hurricane over the UK in October and a 6 month severe winter, the worst for 300 years (worse than 1962/1963) until April 2014. He has posted videos on YouTube explaining why!I will leave it up to you as to what you think of that. At first I had a big laugh at what he was forecasting and thought he was putting up for a laugh. However he's been forecasting this hurricane since February. He actually forecasted the weather for August and September quite accurately a month ago. He even forecasted the February winter storms in NE USA two weeks before it happened. However I am still taking it with a pinch of salt!!!

 

 

iceagenow.com or whaterver the site is lol...?

[Summer Sun]

iceagenow.com or whaterver the site is lol...?

 

Maybe here http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.co.uk/

 

The home of James Madden's blog

 

[Methuselah]

I just don't buy into this 'one parameter will determine our winter' type of thinking...If it were that easy, seasonal forecasting would be as easy as pie. As it happens, it still seems to be little better than necromancy??

Don't nobody take that as a dig at all those why, year in and year out, continually keep pushing the science along. It's just that it's my conviction (rightly or wrongly) that it won't be until quantum computers become available, that LRFing becomes a realistic proposition...And, when that happens, it'll the science-based forecasts that'll take a giant leap forward; the likes of Madden and Powell will be left floundering...

 

I'll surely miss GP this winter!!

[stewfox]

Pfft, the Swedes and the Finns are laughing at us for what we call 'winter'. Even Dec 2010 is mild by their standards. As for this past winter? Would be amongst the mildest ever in Stockholm or Helsinki. Bunch of pansies!

 

 

In need the people of Verkhoyansk, Russia after laughing at what the Swedes and Finns call  a winter.

 

Its interesting there is very little 'reviews' of previous winter forecasts which tells me something

[Snowstorm1]

Bit slow on this but whats happened to GP? How come he isn't posting this winter?

[Methuselah]

Bit slow on this but whats happened to GP? How come he isn't posting this winter?

He's working elsewhere mate, so can't post his thoughts on NW anymore...

[Cheshire Freeze]

He's working elsewhere mate, so can't post his thoughts on NW anymore...

 

If I was him I'd just create a new member name and change my writing style a bit (if it is a case of new employers not wanting him to share his thoughts). Bingo!

[feb1991blizzard]

If I was him I'd just create a new member name and change my writing style a bit (if it is a case of new employers not wanting him to share his thoughts). Bingo!

 

Only thing if he changed his writing style then no one would know it was him, what we need him to do is keep his writing style, change his location so it is different from the location details his employer has and just post, what we must all do if we notice its him is not say anything out loud, just tell other coldies via pm so that no one can prove anything and bingo.

[MPG]

He's working elsewhere mate, so can't post his thoughts on NW anymore...

Was that down to the poor winter 2012/13 forecast? ha. Shame, his input was brilliant wrongly or rightly.

[Dancerwithwings]

In need the people of Verkhoyansk, Russia after laughing at what the Swedes and Finns call  a winter.

 

Its interesting there is very little 'reviews' of previous winter forecasts which tells me something

Tromsø is a city in the very northernmost part of Norway (picture) and well inside the arctic circle, Its a beautiful place and atm it's having the same kind of temps as we are having in the uk, But come oct the temps drop off rapidly and has very long dark nights and days through out winter, If you like extremes this is the place to live.

Regarding Verkhoyansk in Russia now that's extreme kids there stop going to school when temps fall to -52 and through out winter that happens alot.

 

Edited September 8, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[ukpaul]

Was that down to the poor winter 2012/13 forecast? ha. Shame, his input was brilliant wrongly or rightly.

You seem to be a new user so won't know how wrong that statement is!

 

GP has been a very impressive forecaster and has, apparently, been snapped up and is getting paid for it now.

 

This is what he last posted.

 

"Regulars will know that I champion a non numerical weather model approach to long range weather forecasting - that in order to accept a model forecast you must first understand and form an opinion of how the global pattern is being driven. This has had its failures, but it's had its successes too. These successes have not gone un-noticed and I've been fortunate enough to have been offered a role with a large multinational providing consultative long range weather forecasts. A tremendous challenge but one I'm very keen on.This requires complete dedication and precludes any public forecasting role.Therefore, this posting will be my last on Netweather."

 

We had a poor-ish winter for snow down here last winter compared to those further north. As a result I'm expecting a better one this year in comparison to others. If elsewhere has less we'll feel as though we aren't as left out!

Edited September 8, 2013 by ukpaul

[cyclonic happiness]

In need the people of Verkhoyansk, Russia after laughing at what the Swedes and Finns call  a winter.

 

Its interesting there is very little 'reviews' of previous winter forecasts which tells me something

Really winds me up when folk go on about 'it's colder in Canada and they manage', it's such an utterly pointless statement to make.

 

If they had heavy snow in South Africa like they've had this year it's a BIG deal coz they're not used to it!

 

All those poor people dying on mass in Peru and all those hundreds and thousands of livestock that are dying there in temperature of only -18'c and yet it's -90'c in Antarctica!! What an aweful fuss they are making! they should 'man up' and stop complaining after all it is -400'c on Pluto isn't it? :-/

[cheese]

Really winds me up when folk go on about 'it's colder in Canada and they manage', it's such an utterly pointless statement to make.

 

If they had heavy snow in South Africa like they've had this year it's a BIG deal coz they're not used to it!

 

All those poor people dying on mass in Peru and all those hundreds and thousands of livestock that are dying there in temperature of only -18'c and yet it's -90'c in Antarctica!! What an aweful fuss they are making! they should 'man up' and stop complaining after all it is -400'c on Pluto isn't it? :-/

Somebody is a bit grumpy - your posts recently have been a tad temperamental. Everything alright champ?

 

I should clarify that my earlier comment was a joke - which, I thought, was abundantly clear - regarding British people complaining about the prolonged cold and snow of December 2010, and how people eventually became sick of it, even though it would qualify as a mild winter month in eastern and northern Europe. It had nothing to do with our ability to cope with snow on a daily basis (i.e travel disruption). I even added a wink emoticon! >> <<

Edited September 8, 2013 by cheese

[Gavin Hannah]

It aint cold till your eyeballs freeze over.  

[Methuselah]

Was that down to the poor winter 2012/13 forecast? ha. Shame, his input was brilliant wrongly or rightly.

I don't think that GP's forecast, for last winter, was bad; he outlined clearly all the likely pitfalls when his forecast was issued, and presented his effort in probabilistic terms...He wasn't pretending to be aux fait with all kinds of occultist nonsense, and blethering on about his knowing the unknowable...On the contrary; he presented it like it was...

 

Contrast that with the run-of-the-mill mumbo-jumbo that the tabloid press publishes each year: seagulls, grebes, hedgehogs, rowan berries, blah blah blah...None of which, will ever benefit from future advances in computing...

[Gavin Hannah]

I don't think that GP's forecast, for last winter, was bad; he outlined clearly all the likely pitfalls when his forecast was issued, and presented his effort in probabilistic terms...He wasn't pretending to be aux fait with all kinds of occultist nonsense, and blethering on about his knowing the unknowable...On the contrary; he presented it like it was...

 

Contrast that with the run-of-the-mill mumbo-jumbo that the tabloid press publishes each year: seagulls, grebes, hedgehogs, rowan berries, blah blah blah...None of which, will ever benefit from future advances in computing...

 

 

What I am interested to know is.. How will the major fires in the US contribute the global weather pattern?  There's been an awful lot of ash and smoke been released into the atmosphere (On a par with a small volcanic eruption? minus the sulphur?)  Could have an influence on how weather patterns develop in the US and then further downstream?

[Relativistic]

What an aweful fuss they are making! they should 'man up' and stop complaining after all it is -400'c on Pluto isn't it? :-/

Nothing in the Universe gets any lower than -273C I'm afraid. Edited September 8, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[VillagePlank]

Nothing in the Universe gets any lower than -273C I'm afraid.

 

You haven't met my wife.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Personally I'd like to see a proper convective NW'ly earlyish on in the season. -10 850s over a warmish Irish sea and a nice streamer setting up. Obviously Greater Manchester had 2 set ups like this in Dec '09 and Jan '10 but winds had too much of a W'ly element for here. The last proper Cheshire gap set up was March 2006 and before that 25th December 2004.

 

March 2006.....

 

 

 

Dec 2004....

 

 

I'd forgotten what a tasty looking set up that March 2006 one was!

Edited September 8, 2013 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

Personally I'd like to see a proper convective NW'ly earlyish on in the season. -10 850s over a warmish Irish sea and a nice streamer setting up. Obviously Greater Manchester had 2 set ups like this in Dec '09 and Jan '10 but winds had too much of a W'ly element for here. The last proper Cheshire gap set up was March 2006 and before that 25th December 2004.

 

March 2006.....

 

 

 

Dec 2004....

 

 

I'd forgotten what a tasty looking set up that March 2006 one was!

 

 

Not the best in terms of HLB, a brief toppler really but some hefty showers all the way down in to West Midlands from this.