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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

If the Azores high stays close by this winter like it is now then not only would we struggle to get much in the way of cold weather but I would think a drought in 2014 would be almost certain given our hot and quite dry summer we've had this year who knows how wet Autumn will be but at the moment the ensembles keep it drier than average to at least the 23rd

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Or you could just not use the heating and just be cold, or put your coat on in the house, it surely cant be any colder inside than out and even people who don't like brutal weather still go out in it.

For real?

 

Last winter I was fully clothed and also wrapped in a heavy fleece to keep warm whilst paying mega bucks to the energy company to stop the pipes freezing, I can keep warm but the rest of the house needs to be warm to a degree to function too, frozen pipes is not an option.

 

I hate being cold indoors, and I will not put coats on indoors. I'm supposed to be comfortable in my own home.

totally agree.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Having moved house a few weeks ago I now lay 13 feet BELOW sea level, not to mention live right next to a river. I feel I'll need something a bit more special to see a decent amount of snow here now!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

I never have the heating on upstairs in the house, it's just a waste of money. 

 

Last winter I was house sitting for my auntie and when I got there I had to open all the doors and windows as she'd set the themostat to 25'C!!!! 

 

I never have the temps over 17'c why would need it any warmer?

 

And if you get cold, just wear thermal undies and vest, you can still be comfortable.

 

There are some folk who are mainly the sorts who go out in a blizzard without a coat in a tee-shirt because "the car has heating".

 

Yesterday I saw at least 70% of the kids walking to school in just jumpers in torrential rain that had been falling all night (so there was no excuse for claiming you'd been 'caught out).

 

People now don't realise when they're well off .

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I never have the heating on upstairs in the house, it's just a waste of money. 

 

Last winter I was house sitting for my auntie and when I got there I had to open all the doors and windows as she'd set the themostat to 25'C!!!! 

 

I never have the temps over 17'c why would need it any warmer?

 

And if you get cold, just wear thermal undies and vest, you can still be comfortable.

 

 

wait until you are over 70 I think you may find you would have your ch on a higher setting!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

I believe it's cheaper to keep your heating on a certain temperature for long periods rather than fluctuating between having it on 25C and then turning it off completely. I prefer 21C indoors. I can tolerate up to 25C indoors but after a while I start getting uncomfortable, and I do not turn the heating on right before bed as it will make for a very unpleasant night sleep-wise.

 

17C is far too cold indoors for me. I love cold outdoors, but hate it when I'm inside. Even today, I'm feeling a slight chill. No heating on today though. The sun is  helping warm the house as my back windows get plentiful sun, even in the winter. Yes, I suppose we're spoilt as a society today and we take these things for granted. But heating is there to be used so I will use it when I see fit. If other people want to wear outdoor attire indoors to keep warm then good for them.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

World Health Organization's standard for warmth says 18C (64F) is suitable for healthy people who are appropriately dressed.

 

For those with respiratory problems or allergies, they recommend a minimum of 16C (60.8C)

 

And for the sick, disabled, very old or very young, a minimum of 20C (68F)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at the netweather NCEP maps November and December look to be the 2 coolest months

 

November

 

Looks cool but drier than average with high pressure sitting to the north of the UK setting up an easterly flow - temperatures 1c maximum below the anomaly though around 0.5c below the anomaly is shown widely from humberside south

 

December

 

Sees the high drifting over to Scandinavia setting up an east to south easterly flow. Rainfall increases in the east with a maximum of %115 of the anomaly. But for the south coast, the west and a lot of Scotland its below average with %70 of the anomaly in places

 

Temperature again vary to a max of 1c below the anomaly for parts of the south east to average for northern England and 1c above for western parts of NI

 

January

 

We see a change with the Azores high coming into play drifting up to the UK once again Scotland remains rather dry with just %70 of the anomaly in places for the west most of England sees an increase with a maximum of %120 of the anomaly.

 

Temperatures respond with average to slightly above max of 1c above the anomaly for parts of northern England, western Scotland remains cooler with a low of 1c below the anomaly

 

February

 

The Azores shifts a bit further north with it rainfall increases for all but northwestern Scotland where it remains drier than average just %70 of the anomaly here England and wales ranges from %100 to %130 of the anomaly

 

Temperatures also respond ranging from 0.5c to 1c above the anomaly for parts of Northern England and the south in between its average western Scotland remains a max of 1c below the anomaly

 

I've included November in this as currently November and December look the 2 coldest month just like 2010 was a cold start but warming up in Jan and Feb

 

Early days yet but northern England (north east and west) and western NI would get 3 months either at or slightly above average for this coming winter not one month for these 2 locations is shown to be below

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

World Health Organization's standard for warmth says 18C (64F) is suitable for healthy people who are appropriately dressed.

 

For those with respiratory problems or allergies, they recommend a minimum of 16C (60.8C)

 

And for the sick, disabled, very old or very young, a minimum of 20C (68F)

 

I'm in a wheelchair and I feel fine at around 18C indoors, I would imagine it depends on the person's needs and how they feel the cold. Some people feel the cold more than others.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Looking at the netweather NCEP maps November and December look to be the 2 coolest months

Don't like the sound of that! December is very atmospheric when cold but it then leaves 2 months of benign mildness to contend with.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Don't like the sound of that! December is very atmospheric when cold but it then leaves 2 months of benign mildness to contend with.

 

CFS titillates us with another carbon copy of the freezer scenario it's been gunning for since May

 

 

post-10987-0-19679100-1378592394_thumb.p

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

CFS titillates us with another carbon copy of the freezer scenario it's been gunning for since May

 

 

Posted ImageFreezer.png

That looks very good indeed. I'll be rooting for the CFS model if it continues to portray January in this manner. If it's been showing similar scenarios since May then that's certainly a good sign - consistency is key.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Just looking through my twitter posts from last year; first snow was 26th October and last (sleet) was observed 28th May! That's 8 months were snow fell and I'm in the south! Really were spoilt last year!

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

well i hope we get a winter to remembor and before any1 says its all good sitting in the house wishing for a harsh winter, i enjoy walking in the cold and snow. I don't mind paying heating bill if we get a good and snowy winter. March 2013 i did enjoy walking in the snow in longer daylight hours.

 

Indeed. Better to get deep cold with maxes below 0C with snow and have the heating on than nothing with the temperature between 2C and 5C, too mild for snow but still cold enough to have the heating on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

Just looking through my twitter posts from last year; first snow was 26th October and last (sleet) was observed 28th May! That's 8 months were snow fell and I'm in the south! Really were spoilt last year!

 

I found last Winter to be thoroughly unpleasant at times, good job snow never lasted too long on the ground after the falls, they came and then gone but even so when you are sat in a wheelchair it can be a right pain having icy slushy wheels even just for a day. Posted ImageLeave the snow to Ben Nevis thank you.

Edited by Gaz1985
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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

Sacrilege I know, but I'm hoping for a nice mild winter this year. About time we had a nice Euro high for weeks on end, sending dry, sunny & mildish weather our way. I'll enjoy the cold if it comes, for a few days, but I think December 2010 finished me off for prolonged stuff!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Pfft, the Swedes and the Finns are laughing at us for what we call 'winter'. Even Dec 2010 is mild by their standards. As for this past winter? Would be amongst the mildest ever in Stockholm or Helsinki. Bunch of pansies! Posted Image

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Pfft, the Swedes and the Finns are laughing at us for what we call 'winter'. Even Dec 2010 is mild by their standards.

 

Indeed. Let's have a nice 3 month freeze up- to show us what winter really can do.

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Posted
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: snow,cold,frost,fog,wind,rain
  • Location: Falkirk, Scotland

last year was a terrible winter for me in central, loads of lovely snow but hardly any for central. with the previous winters with considerable snow it's depressing when things dont go that way. for this year I'd love another large long lasting amount of cold and snow, but I feel it's going to be a drab mild early start to winter. based on no evidence other than my gut feeling. really hope I'm wrong!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Interesting post on The weather outlook for winter

 

The QBO is trending strongly positive now so it looks like we're looking at a strong polar vortex this winter increasing the likelihood of a mainly westerly flow over the UK.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postsm530438_Winter-2013-14-Prospects-and-Forecasts.aspx#post530438

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I just don't buy into this 'one parameter will determine our winter' type of thinking...If it were that easy, seasonal forecasting would be as easy as pie. As it happens, it still seems to be little better than necromancy??

Edited by A Boy Named Sue
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Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex

Hi!

Don't know where to post this but this, but there is a young guy who has a Facebook page called "Steves Winter forecast". He forecasts a category 3 hurricane over the UK in October and a 6 month severe winter, the worst for 300 years (worse than 1962/1963) until April 2014. He has posted videos on YouTube explaining why!

I will leave it up to you as to what you think of that. At first I had a big laugh at what he was forecasting and thought he was putting up for a laugh. However he's been forecasting this hurricane since February. He actually forecasted the weather for August and September quite accurately a month ago. He even forecasted the February winter storms in NE USA two weeks before it happened. However I am still taking it with a pinch of salt!!!

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Hi!Don't know where to post this but this, but there is a young guy who has a Facebook page called "Steves Winter forecast". He forecasts a category 3 hurricane over the UK in October and a 6 month severe winter, the worst for 300 years (worse than 1962/1963) until April 2014. He has posted videos on YouTube explaining why!I will leave it up to you as to what you think of that. At first I had a big laugh at what he was forecasting and thought he was putting up for a laugh. However he's been forecasting this hurricane since February. He actually forecasted the weather for August and September quite accurately a month ago. He even forecasted the February winter storms in NE USA two weeks before it happened. However I am still taking it with a pinch of salt!!!

steve Simmonds ...make him head of met office,he is either a genius or is having a laugh!

expect the worst hurricane in 300 years in October and the worst winter in 300 years from jan to april then 5 years of more normal weather.

Due to historical weather cycles and not global warming!

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