Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Cheshire Freeze]

Seeing as we're now into autumn and winter will be the next season up, I thought we should maybe have a dedicated thread to look ahead to the winter season. This being allied to the fact the autumn thread is being clogged up with winter posts.

 

In this thread we can keep tabs on the seasonal model updates and hopefully we can get some of the more technical members discussing their thoughts. Enjoy!

 

P.S As suggested by Damienslaw in the autumn thread, maybe someone can move the winter related discussion from the autumn thread into this one?

Edited September 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

So hopes;

Cold, cold, snow, wind, blizzards, epic freeze, beast from the east 

It won't be a good winter until icicles grow out of my nose

I think I'm done now

[Isolated Frost]

Constant supply of north-easterlies. 

[Chris K]

I think it's a good time to open this up also. That way Autumn and winter discussion doesn't get muddled up and those who don't want to hear the utterance of snow for another 3 months can stay away 

 

It's interesting to see a few long range forecasts coming out with differing views. Most have gone for a milder, perhaps 'zonal' winter this year, particularly to begin with. Then perhaps signals for colder weather to encroach during Feb/March again.

 

However as others have pointed out, since May the CFS has been trending for a winter dominated by Northern Blocking throughout. Obviously it will flip flop each run you look at, but the trends have been there. I wonder how CFS will perform this year? - that is one thing I'm keen to keep an eye on.

 

Finally, I can't help but feel that we are overdue a' stormy winter'. I can't remember the last time we had a proper storm blast through the UK (not that I want damage or danger to life of course...it just fascinates me how they are modeled and develop). Whilst of course we have had the occasional deep system move towards the UK, it has been a while since I've actually heard the roar of constant severe gales and the howling of trees from nearby woodland during the night.

 

Can't wait for more forecasts to start appearing with people's thoughts and analysis for potential trends this Winter.

[sundog]

hope we get some good northerlies this winter,prefer them to easterlies. the last two winters there have not been many.

[Captain Shortwave]

Constant supply of north-easterlies. 

Given the sheer endless supply of north easterlies this summer, I bet we get a big fat nothing when they can actually deliver something other than low cloud 

[Andy_]

I really want an early winter like 2010! November is much easier to cope with when the weather isn't 7-12C and drizzling, 0C and snow will suit fine

[March Blizzard]

hope we get some good northerlies this winter,prefer them to easterlies. the last two winters there have not been many.

Agree. I love the brilliantly sunny (but freezing cold) days northerlies afford us in winter. Clear skies and hard frost is much better than easterly style grey rawness and narrow temperature ranges.

[snowstorm445]

My personal hunch is that this winter will be milder than average, perhaps not as mild as the winter of 2011/12, but fairly zonal, perhaps a snow event or two later on. Of course its important to remember that there is no sure-fire way to forecast weather months in advance, and I would be particularly cautious when using long range models like the CFS, which flip-flop constantly.

Having said that, what I hope to see is a colder than average one with easterlies or south-easterlies rather than north-easterlies (they tend to favour snow in this part of the world). Preferably, I'd love a good cold snap around the New Year, perhaps from Christmas onwards, something similar to what we saw in December 2009.

Its important to bear in mind that events like what we saw in November/December 2010 are much rarer than cold snaps from Christmas onwards. An event like that of three years ago was a once in a lifetime occurrence, IMO. If your hoping for a cold winter, chances are you won't see any major snow until after the new year.

[feb1991blizzard]

I would fancy a 09-10 style winter, I was in MCCR then but that will still be my overriding memory of this period of stonking winters.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I would like to experience a blizzard. You don't tend to get too many of those here in Coventry!

We did well for snow here last winter but it fell gently for long periods of time. I prefer whiteout conditions like the norwesters they get along the NE seaboard of the US!

The last blizzard in the UK was the March 23rd one this year?

Edited September 1, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[feb1991blizzard]

I would like to experience a blizzard. You don't tend to get too many of those here in Coventry!We did well for snow here last winter but it fell gently for long periods of time. I prefer whiteout conditions like the norwesters they get along the NE seaboard of the US!The last blizzard in the UK was the March 23rd one this year?

 

 

And a stonkinmg one at that!!!

Edited September 1, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Gaz1985]

I would fancy a 09-10 style winter, I was in MCCR then but that will still be my overriding memory of this period of stonking winters.

 

Yes the snow and cold of Winter of 2009/10 was spread out over the whole Winter months it just didn't seem to want to end, while in comparison people drone on and on about December 2010 the following January and February was mild in comparison after that month. I lived a couple hundred feet higher back in the 2009/10 Winter actually not too far from Saddleworth and I shoveled snow so many times it became a pain, although I'm sure it's to your liking, not that's a problem we have our own preferences. 

[syed2878]

good to c this thread back though its just a tad earlly. Hope want to c plenty of the white stuf thruout the winter though we didn't do too bad last year. I would like to experience a proper blizard or even something like 63 and 47. Howe ever i don't think we will get something like that again.

[VillagePlank]

A starter for ten,

 

 

Not going to happen, of course, but at least it's some eye candy early on in the season.

[Paul]

The CFS is still going nuts for northern blocking this winter - it's been an ongoing pattern on the output for well over a month - but despite this, obviously still some way to go and much could change...

 

[Mountain Snow]

December 2010 style cold with the occasional March 2013 style blizzard will do me just fine. 

[Relativistic]

Don't think I have ever experienced a blizzard. Sure would love to though. I've also never seen more than a foot of snow, the closest was 10" in December 2010. So to see a blizzard bringing snow depths of 18" for it to last at least a couple weeks would be the dream. Unfortunately, it's much easier said than done.

Last Winter was good but not in terms of snow depth or exceptionally low temperatures, but for the frequency of falling snow right from October to April. Almost every time there was precipitation of some kind in March it was snow. The deepest we probably got was around 4". However, although March 2013 didn't bring us deep snows or blizzard conditions, to see snow falling daily, sometimes all day, with highs on some days of just 1-3C, and icycles hanging off of everything, all during days that were longer than the nights, was pretty cool.

Edited September 2, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Rollo]

The last thing this country needs is a winter a la 2010 or worse but from a personal view bring it on.

[Frozen Britain]

^{Greenland Blocking, of course. A winter like 09/10 or December 2010 please.}

Edited September 2, 2013 by Frozen Britain

[Walsall Wood Snow]

A November and December like 2010 followed by a January like 1963 followed by a February like 1947 in turn followed by a March like this year would have to be my wish.

[Methuselah]

Anything but the same as last year. A short, sharp snowy bit would do fine...

[joggs]

A very convective ne flow with shorlived sunny spells and frequent heavy snow and hail showers sweeping across the whole country,-10 or so by night(obviously lower in the snow fields) and freezing or just below through the day. I remember a spell like that back end of, 95 into 96.Not to much to ask surely!?!?!?!??,lol.

[Backtrack]

An early start with a deep cold shot from the North with intruding Atlantic fronts bringing copious amounts of snow from numerous amounts of attempted intrusions only to fail against a strong cold block with the breakdown coming at the start of January. A white Christmas a certainty. Two weeks of mild followed by a NE'erly to stop the easterners moaning and to give the west some clear, sunny, ice cold days. Thereafter more of the same with periods of cold and mild throughout January, always interspersed with a milder interlude to break it up. Cold nights a common feature with records being broken in the north of Scotland and England.

 

February being mostly mild other than a significant snow event around the mid-month mark, lasting just 2-4 days. March one of the mildest on record with sunshine the most discussed feature and temperatures approaching 20C.

[UV-RAY]

An early start with a deep cold shot from the North with intruding Atlantic fronts bringing copious amounts of snow from numerous amounts of attempted intrusions only to fail against a strong cold block with the breakdown coming at the start of January. A white Christmas a certainty. Two weeks of mild followed by a NE'erly to stop the easterners moaning and to give the west some clear, sunny, ice cold days. Thereafter more of the same with periods of cold and mild throughout January, always interspersed with a milder interlude to break it up. Cold nights a common feature with records being broken in the north of Scotland and England. February being mostly mild other than a significant snow event around the mid-month mark, lasting just 2-4 days. March one of the mildest on record with sunshine the most discussed feature and temperatures approaching 20C.

Sounds a little like 2009/10 winter BT.