Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[gary1365]

I'm familiar with the topography of the area. I don't think I've ever seen snow here in October not that I can remember. I used to drive to Belfast everyday and I could see the Belfast hills, the Antrim hills and the Mournes on my route. I don't ever remember seeing snow on any of those hills. The route I took was at it's highest 200m.

 

I only just moved up to the north coast last year though so I can't say much about the weather in the Sperrins from my own experience. Portstewart is certainly colder than Bangor.

Edited October 25, 2013 by gary1365

[smithyweather]

Aye thats Portstewart it never snows there, sure in the winter when everyone is getting bucketed with snow it is raining there. 

 

Trust me it does snow here in October, it is rare but it isn't so rare that it doesn't happen, It snowed in 2008 here last in October (low down) but 2011 it snowed up on the hills. But yes based on the past few years where I live at my house we always get our first snow in November like every year and usually it is between now and mid November.

 

And tbh the hills in the North West would get more snow than the Mournes and the hills in Belfast.

Edited October 25, 2013 by smithyweather

[gary1365]

Same as Bangor where I lived there it hardly ever snows but 1 mile up the road loads of it. I missed all the snow last year splitting my time between Coleraine and Bangor. apart from Easter snow.

Edited October 25, 2013 by gary1365

[smithyweather]

I think I do ok for a low lying area. The hills round me do really well for Northern Ireland, like in March the snow stayed up there for ages. It's always so irritating because if I lived up at 250m I think the snow would be pretty good, for some odd reason the snowline is 100m in those easter storms.

 

Last year wasn't really good but March was good. We did better than other areas, Londonderry had no snow at all really, it was kind of funny because at one point there was snow in Ballykelly and once you passed that there was nothing. 

Edited October 25, 2013 by smithyweather

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

to be fair I have seen snow here in 2008, I cannot remember much before that, November is more likely to proide snow for my area than october,I'm sure thats the same as most areas though....

[Buriedundersnow]

still some warming showing in FI looks stronger on the 0z than the 6z

 

0z

 

 

6z

 

 

this is a link I put in the strat thread last night its an article on America but at the bottom he talks about the possibility of an early SSW being triggered

 

http://weatherworksinc.com/early-November-snow-threat

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

still some warming showing in FI looks stronger on the 0z than the 6z

 

0z

 

0z.png0 z.png

 

6z

 

npst30CAHWY9Z4.png6z.png

 

this is a link I put in the strat thread last night its an article on America but at the bottom he talks about the possibility of an early SSW being triggered

 

http://weatherworksinc.com/early-November-snow-threat

Looking at where the high ozone content is , and where the warming is actually talking place, I wonder weather that has any baring on where the vortex disruption will take place , because if there was a split for instance where the warming is occuring , as the displaced vortex will sit either side of the warming , which will be toward Greenland and the other toward Russia , which will most likely result in energy spilling towards us from greenlands. But with that in mind with two pieces of vortex set up , you will also have areas of high pressure , most likely in between those vortex segments , so one might expect high pressure from say just east of Iceland , over across to Norway up towards scandi maybe ? . . . . Indeed this monitoring over the next 10 days or so, but may give ppl an early shock cold belting !!

[cooling climate]

Prolonged and elevated Asian mountain torque leading to strong surge in

westerlies moving north and +GLAMM. This should hopefully lead to a more

meridonal pattern as we move through November .

Also the wave breaking into the stratosphere where we are already seeing

above average 10 and 30mb temperatures and a abundance of ozone

especially on the pacific side we could very well see much more in the way of

northern blocking and exciting synoptic charts during November onwards.

Edited October 26, 2013 by cooling climate

[cooling climate]

Forgot to post diagram of relative AMM tendancy.

[Tedward1982]

Hi all followed these forums for the last couple of winters, and have built up some basic knowledge. Decided to come along for the ride this year! Cannot wait for the Winter, hoping for a good few snow days however not in January as my wife is due to give birth then!!! However it snowed on our wedding this March so who know what will happen.

[summer blizzard]

Forgot to post diagram of relative AMM tendancy.

glamm today.gif

 

If +AMM enhances westerlies then is that not a bad thing.

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS,GEM and ECM all looking to try and lower heights over Europe at day 10 now obviously this is a while off but the fact all three models look to do this its maybe worth keeping an eye on.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?map=eur〈=en&run=12&stn=PNM&&range=glb&hh=240

Edited October 26, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[AWD]

A little bit of interest as we go through November;

[Cheshire Freeze]

A little bit of interest as we go through November;

image.jpg

 

I think November will be an interesting month and have thought so for a while. The 18z GFS in FI is *very* November 2009. Interesting that we're also seeing the strat hold up in terms of temperature at present, with small warmings being repeatedly shown by the GFS as we head into November.

 

This, coupled with the tripole re-emerging is positive news if you like your weather of the cold variety. Although, as ever, there are no guarantees with the weather!

Edited October 27, 2013 by CreweCold

[Conor Sherwin]

it just started to rain were i live and there is already puddles of water and this low is not going to bring rain nothing like tomorrow night whats going to happen

[Tim Bland]

You know winter is round the corner when the GFS comes out at 10am 4pm and 10pm 😄 just need the weather patterns to play ball. Looks like a few more weeks of zonal before any Strat warning can move the PV. My hunch is for a slow start this year with first proper cold / snowy spell around mid December

[Dancerwithwings]

You know winter is round the corner when the GFS comes out at 10am 4pm and 10pm just need the weather patterns to play ball. Looks like a few more weeks of zonal before any Strat warning can move the PV. My hunch is for a slow start this year with first proper cold / snowy spell around mid December

Yes don't have to stay up so late to see the 18Z Anyway you'll find they come out at 9:30-15:30-21:30-3:30

[Buriedundersnow]

some interesting winter charts starting to show on the GFS 6z hopefully its the start of things to come

 

 

the GFS 0z wants to try send heights into scandi which goes along with the JMA

 

 

would prefer the 6z over the 0z but its good to see two runs in a row sending heights north

Edited October 27, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Snowman.]

some interesting winter charts starting to show on the GFS 6z hopefully its the start of things to come

 

gfs-0-336.pnggfs-0-348.pnggfs-0-360.pnggfs-0-372.pnggfs-0-384.png

 

the GFS 0z wants to try send heights into scandi which goes along with the JMA

 

gfs-2013102700-0-348.pnggfs-2013102700-0-360.pnggfs-2013102700-0-372.pnggfs-2013102700-0-384.png

 

would prefer the 6z over the 0z but its good to see two runs in a row sending heights north

Recently runs from the GFS want to split the PV main part over Siberia the other small part west of Greenland into Canada with Heights stretching North of Scotland in Scandi and Greenland.

[Snowman.]

[smithyweather]

I've been looking at the charts and my forecasts over the last few days and to be honest it has cooled down alot since the start of the month- we are right about average now with 10c highs everyday. I think this cooling will continue gradually like Frosty said until we are at highs of 5c on most days by the end of the month. I don't think this winter will be particularly cold but I do think it will be consistently cool maxes like 2 or 3c common which to be is perfect for snow etc. this is just really a hunch and what i'm on the charts over time, so don't listen, it's just what i'm thinking right now.

[Ian Brown]

I've been looking at the charts and my forecasts over the last few days and to be honest it has cooled down alot since the start of the month- we are right about average now with 10c highs everyday. I think this cooling will continue gradually like Frosty said until we are at highs of 5c on most days by the end of the month. I don't think this winter will be particularly cold but I do think it will be consistently cool maxes like 2 or 3c common which to be is perfect for snow etc. this is just really a hunch and what i'm on the charts over time, so don't listen, it's just what i'm thinking right now.

 

To achieve those sorts of maxes you are going to need no Atlantic influence and we know that's not likely to happen, especially in Ireland.

[smithyweather]

Well I was thinking a cooled version of what we are getting now. Like a showery polar maritime airmass from Iceland. Thats not particularly rare or hard to occur. Tbh I don't think 5c maxes are rare in November. In Northern Ireland anyway.

2012-4

2010-7

2009- 1

2008 - 2

2007- 1

2006 -1

So really we have about 2 every November.

And what do you mean "ireland"? Northern ireland is colder than most of england about now.

Edited October 27, 2013 by smithyweather

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another update for the CFS blocking graphs, and explanation for how they were made can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211

 

Here is the graph for November, the y axis shows the strength of SLP anomalies to our north based on the 12z CFS. The blue bars are the daily value and the red line is the 10 days mean and the trend is in black.

 

 

The 10 day mean reached its low point on Monday, and has since slowly climbed back to neutral. 

Over the last 7 days, 2 runs have show -ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 have shown neutral and 3 have shown positive. This is an  improvement on the previous 7 days, but still offers little in the way of a useful signal for November.

 

Below is the December graph

 

 

The 10 day mean has remained in the weak blocking category since this time last week.

The last 7 days have seen 2 runs with -ve SLP anomalies to our north, none with neutral and 5 with positive, which still suggests a blocked December is most likely on the cards. The long term trend is now pointing downward though, so we'll have to see if that continues in the coming week.

 

March remains very consistent, now with just 2 out of 42 runs showing -ve SLP anomalies to our north.

[cheeky_monkey]

for all you snow lovers out there...just thought id let you know that it is snowing heavily in Calgary today