Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[phil nw.]

As i mentioned in the Model thread recently the Stratosphere is a big player in our Winter prospects.

Even the most zonal westerly pattern can be altered by vortex disruption through a sufficiently strong warming event within the Stratosphere.

Of course these are not guaranteed every year and we can get Winters very much Atlantic driven with only brief Northerly topplers.

Just something to hang our hats on during Winter when there appears no end to the westerlies.

Chio's opening post in this years Stratosphere thread lays out some good information on it's workings.

Edited October 22, 2013 by phil nw.

[feb1991blizzard]

As i mentioned in the Model thread recently the Stratosphere is a big player in our Winter prospects.

Even the most zonal westerly pattern can be altered by vortex disruption through a sufficiently strong warming event within the Stratosphere.

Of course these are not guaranteed every year and we can get Winters very much Atlantic driven with only brief Northerly topplers.

Just something to hang our hats on during Winter when there appears no end to the westerlies.

Chio's opening post in this years Stratosphere thread lays out some good information on it's workings.

 

Deffo and although he doesn't seem convinced of a first half of winter dominated by a westerly influence, he has said (and posted evidence) that blocking isn't the favourite for the first half, unless you count blocking highs as highs over mainland Europe!

[BornFromTheVoid]

For those that think the October weather here has a bearing on the following Winter, take a look at this post where I did some correlations between the October CET and the following Winter http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/?p=2801451

 

And further to that, the winters following the top 10 October CETs on record average just 4.4C, which is below the 81-10 average.

 

[bobbydog]

just to remind people that the siberian/european snowcover is a BIG influence on our winter-

 

latest-

 

 

2010

 

 

2009

 

 

lets just wait and see eh?

[phil nw.]

Deffo and although he doesn't seem convinced of a first half of winter dominated by a westerly influence, he has said (and posted evidence) that blocking isn't the favourite for the first half, unless you count blocking highs as highs over mainland Europe!

Logically effective warmings and thereby high latitude blocking are less common early Winter.The polar night is at it's max and the vortex is at it's coldest and so more resistant.Therefore the PV can take several hits from wave breaking events and keep reforming.

I imagine this is why most significant disruptions occur further into Winter when the natural cooling of the Stratosphere starts to reverse as we get nearer to Spring and the return of the Sun over the Pole..

[feb1991blizzard]

Logically effective warmings and thereby high latitude blocking are less common early Winter.The polar night is at it's max and the vortex is at it's coldest and so more resistant.Therefore the PV can take several hits from wave breaking events and keep reforming.

I imagine this is why most significant disruptions occur further into Winter when the natural cooling of the Stratosphere starts to reverse as we get nearer to Spring and the return of the Sun over the Pole..

 

Incidently, is that the reason that the forecast wave 1 activity isn't likely to have any impact further down the line tropospherically, is it that it just wasn't potent enough at only 1200m, and is it that near 2000m is needed realistically?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

In December 2012 everyone thought we would get a beasterly, with most the models predicting it 5 days out. We were all wrong when the pattern changed. Yet for some reason people think they can predict what the Winter will be like more than a month out! We don't even know with any confidence what will happen in 5 days time!

No they didn't, it seemed likely on models coupled with GPs bullishness, there were some that didn't go with it.

 

BFTP

[JK1]

hope it's very mild and & hope there is no snow

[Relativistic]

No they didn't, it seemed likely on models coupled with GPs bullishness, there were some that didn't go with it.BFTP

It's cos the Express jinxed it, that's why it didn't come off! I remember the excitement on here, people going crazy, followed by a front page Express article going mad about it, and then everything went wrong.

[phil nw.]

Incidently, is that the reason that the forecast wave 1 activity isn't likely to have any impact further down the line tropospherically, is it that it just wasn't potent enough at only 1200m, and is it that near 2000m is needed realistically?

I not the expert on this feb1991 but looking at the last ECM outputs there is some activity at the top end but that is forecasted to cool out in the next few days.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

 

this often happens and i think this wave was as a result of an Asian mountain torque.

 

Anyway best leave the Stratosphere monitoring for that thread.

[pandit-scholar]

I see that John Major was saying on the news it is likely to be a hard winter, a big reason for his call to crack down on energy firms prizes. Like to think he had some inside information being an ex prime minister!!!

[johnholmes]

that is not what he said from my listening, he said, I think, something like it is quite possible, perhaps someone can find the actual words. It is mis reporting like the above that causes problems. Is he likely to have inside information=I would think unlikely he is on the Met O list of special recipients and he is very welcome to some of the crackpot ideas emanating from some folk and centres. Sorry a touch OTT to say crackpot, maybe pretty unlikely ideas?

[feb1991blizzard]

that is not what he said from my listening, he said, I think, something like it is quite possible, perhaps someone can find the actual words. It is mis reporting like the above that causes problems. Is he likely to have inside information=I would think unlikely he is on the Met O list of special recipients and he is very welcome to some of the crackpot ideas emanating from some folk and centres. Sorry a touch OTT to say crackpot, maybe pretty unlikely ideas?

 

I would like to think otherwise but realistically, you are bang on the money, if he was prime minister still then I might even buy it but he isn't now.

[pandit-scholar]

that is not what he said from my listening, he said, I think, something like it is quite possible, perhaps someone can find the actual words. It is mis reporting like the above that causes problems. Is he likely to have inside information=I would think unlikely he is on the Met O list of special recipients and he is very welcome to some of the crackpot ideas emanating from some folk and centres. Sorry a touch OTT to say crackpot, maybe pretty unlikely ideas?

I am quite sure he said likely, but I will review it on the BBC iPlayer tonight. Just looking for any tiny specks of dust for any cold & snow this winter. Just gone from optimistic to more pessimistic the last couple of days, although as of yet it is still very hard to predict!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Closest to 2010 ever, in terms of runs and re-analysis??

 

Edited October 22, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[pandit-scholar]

Closest to 2010 ever, in terms of runs and re-analysis??

Fantastic looking chart modelling a white Christmas Day that most would dream of. However, as the sudden disappearance of the deep low on many operational model runs this evening shows, there is more chance of winning the lottery than this chart verifying. Many, me included, still live in hope though!!! Edited October 22, 2013 by pandit-scholar

[feb1991blizzard]

That spell around mid Dec only delivered 3 inches for me but synoptically it was the best Northerly I have ever seen on the charts, the neatest straight down from the arctic anyway.

[MrSunshine]

I think if we don't get a cold snowy winter we should all blame David Cameron, he's at fault for just about everything going wrong in this Country at the moment! lol (Before anyone bites I'm just joking!)

[feb1991blizzard]

I think if we don't get a cold snowy winter we should all blame David Cameron, he's at fault for just about everything going wrong in this Country at the moment! lol (Before anyone bites I'm just joking!)

 

I take it by your views in other threads that the financial crisis has nothing to do with Labour wasting taxpayers money, I am not defending Cameron completely here, I am really thinking of defecting to UKIP, but every time the torys come to power this country is already saddled with massive debt caused by over spending.

[MrSunshine]

I take it by your views in other threads that the financial crisis has nothing to do with Labour wasting taxpayers money, I am not defending Cameron completely here, I am really thinking of defecting to UKIP, but every time the torys come to power this country is already saddled with massive debt caused by over spending.

 

It just said it was a joke, I don't wish to get political on a Winter thread. I have my views on Mr Camoron & Labour I will stick to the correct thread to give my views. Back on topic now, I'm still keeping everything crossed for a proper cold and snowy winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

It just said it was a joke, I don't wish to get political on a Winter thread. I have my views on Mr Camoron & Labour I will stick to the correct thread to give my views. Back on topic now, I'm still keeping everything crossed for a proper cold and snowy winter.

 

Fair play, I don't care what your views are on politics if your weather hopes come true by the end of winter then I will be happy.

[Cheshire Freeze]

No they didn't, it seemed likely on models coupled with GPs bullishness, there were some that didn't go with it.

 

BFTP

Yep! Me being one of them Fred!

[feb1991blizzard]

Yep! Me being one of them Fred!

 

I remember you saying mild start, what do you think is likely to happen the start of this winter?

Edited October 22, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Ian Brown]

I would like to think otherwise but realistically, you are bang on the money, if he was prime minister still then I might even buy it but he isn't now.

If he was still PM, he wouldn't have come off the fence ! 

[UV-RAY]

Yep! Me being one of them Fred!

+1 here.