Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[lorenzo]

What's notable is how cool the Arctic ocean is in comparison to other years. Data issue? 

 

Am not the best person to ask, am sure that Recretos discussed the lack of data for this region in one of his excellent posts in this seasons Stratosphere thread. Might be worth a look there.

[tight isobar]

Quite uncanny comparable of the mets upto 30 day perceptions of and around this time 2010 as being quoted at present.of course this does by no means suggest we face anything remote to then,However It's worth compare then to now in netweather meto further 30 day forecasts.I will be scrutinizing all data outputs availible from that time to now, and opting compare to now also....intresting...

[Bristawl Si]

Is it just me?

But the longer range models seem EVEN MORE all over the place than normal OR is it because we're at the time of the year when they're under closest scrutiny?

Seems like a toss of a coin would be the easiest way to guess Winter 13/14..and the quickest.

[feb1991blizzard]

Is it just me?But the longer range models seem EVEN MORE all over the place than normal OR is it because we're at the time of the year when they're under closest scrutiny?Seems like a toss of a coin would be the easiest way to guess Winter 13/14..and the quickest.

 

Hope your right but I have a bad feeling this trend towards mild will continue but I really hope not.

[Don]

Hope your right but I have a bad feeling this trend towards mild will continue but I really hope not.

 

I have a bad feeling about this too, but at least if expectations are low then there will be less chance of disappointment.  Through Autumn 2009, especially November I had a bad feeling about Winter 2009/10 and the rest is history!

[phil nw.]

I have a bad feeling about this too, but at least if expectations are low then there will be less chance of disappointment.  Through Autumn 2009, especially November I had a bad feeling about Winter 2009/10 and the rest is history!

Yes  indeed Don.

This is typical Autumn zonality as the vortex get's stronger and it looks like going into November,nothing unusual in that though.

Certainly we can't foretell Winter prospects by linking a raging Atlantic in mid-Autumn -at least i know of no link ever proved.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes  indeed Don.

This is typical Autumn zonality as the vortex get's stronger and it looks like going into November,nothing unusual in that though.

Certainly we can't foretell Winter prospects by linking a raging Atlantic in mid-Autumn -at least i know of no link ever proved.

 

I just think last year though Phil there were some good signals, this year there is only one - the SAI, which is just about to be blown away.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Last year was not that amazing though apart from Match.

Some people need to relax.

[Bristawl Si]

Yes  indeed Don.This is typical Autumn zonality as the vortex get's stronger and it looks like going into November,nothing unusual in that though.Certainly we can't foretell Winter prospects by linking a raging Atlantic in mid-Autumn -at least i know of no link ever proved.

Was it November 09 when we had constant rain and mild conditions for almost the whole month and then Dec and Jan (09/10) was cold with snow and below freezing temps?

[feb1991blizzard]

Last year was not that amazing though apart from Match.Some people need to relax.

 

Yes but its going to prove more than a match for this year!!!! and at least we were close early on even if we didn't quite achieve orgasm.

[Don]

Was it November 09 when we had constant rain and mild conditions for almost the whole month and then Dec and Jan (09/10) was cold with snow and below freezing temps?

 

Yep it certainly was and the 1st 10 days of December were also mild before things changed dramatically around mid month.  The rest of the Winter was cold to very cold with only brief milder interludes.  Winter 2009/10 certainly took me by surprise!

 

Last year was not that amazing though apart from Match.Some people need to relax.

 

 

This is true.  Although IMO last Winter was certainly reasonable from a cold and snowy perspective, I don't feel it lived up to the hype throughout the Autumn.  Like you say, March was pretty exceptional, but that's Spring anyway!

[Skullzrulerz]

Man Looks like its going to be boring mild winter.

[georgiedre]

It's still only October and some are in need Of a reality check! This is the Weather we expect at this time of the year being Autumn and winter will come in December!! Aaaarrrgh!!!!

[Don]

Yes but its going to prove more than a match for this year!!!! and at least we were close early on even if we didn't quite achieve orgasm.

 

How do we know that?  Winter doesn't start for another 6 weeks!  The current signs may not be as good as this time last year, but we won't know until the end of February 2014 whether last Winter was more than a match for this coming one!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Yes but its going to prove more than a match for this year!!!! and at least we were close early on even if we didn't quite achieve orgasm.

How do you know this? We are in October....... do you have a computer forecast model for winter with 100% accuracy that none of us have seen?

[Polar Maritime]

It's hard enough knowing what Winters going to do by December, never mind mid Autumn !

[smithyweather]

It's still only October and some are in need Of a reality check! This is the Weather we expect at this time of the year being Autumn and winter will come in December!! Aaaarrrgh!!!!

So an 18c high is typical late October weather in Northern Ireland is it? The last time I checked 11c was typical for this date. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just have a feeling that's all and have had since the closed season began that last year was our big chance of a 63 or a 47 winter, hope I am wrong of course.

[Polar Maritime]

Just have a feeling that's all and have had since the closed season began that last year was our big chance of a 63 or a 47 winter, hope I am wrong of course.

 

Don't get carried away with your feelings Blizz, Anything could happen at any point during Winter, Just look at 63..

[Radiating Dendrite]

It could be -18c or 18c in N. Ireland at this time of year but it will have little difference in the winter outcome.

As has been shown many times before, the statistical significance of one months weather on another month further down the line is negligible.

As for last year being our big chance of a 1947 / 63 event, what makes you say this? We had some good synoptics in la la la land and even mid range such as that ECM but not much made it into the reliable. This happens nearly every winter, each model will show FI Nirvana at some point for a small time frame.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Radiating Dendrite

[feb1991blizzard]

OK.

[UV-RAY]

OK.

Lol, keep those feelings to yourself feb 91 and you say I'm pessimistic.

[Barry12]

In December 2012 everyone thought we would get a beasterly, with most the models predicting it 5 days out. We were all wrong when the pattern changed. Yet for some reason people think they can predict what the Winter will be like more than a month out! We don't even know with any confidence what will happen in 5 days time!

Edited October 22, 2013 by Barry95

[Snowman.]

It's hard enough knowing what Winters going to do by December, never mind mid Autumn !

Currently the models can't even project how Monday's low is going to come off.

 

Nevermind the rest of Autumn let alone Winter.

In December 2012 everyone thought we would get a beasterly, with most the models predicting it 5 days out. We were all wrong when the pattern changed. Yet for some reason people think they can predict what the Winter will be like more than a month out! We don't even know with any confidence what will happen in 5 days time!

 

I didn't find the models then, can you give me the rough times please?

[feb1991blizzard]

Lol, keep those feelings to yourself feb 91 and you say I'm pessimistic.

 

True but we are approaching winter now as opposed to still being in summer and im not sure chiono's few moves after the opening gambit are necessarily going to be pointing greatly to success, of course its never going to be checkmate this early though and as per my forecast, I still think late winter still has a chance of delivering a checkmate in our favour!