Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Don]

It will be that time of the year again in a few weeks time when hopefully we will get early thoughts of the Winter forecast, wont be Stewart this year though.

 

Nope, he will certainly be sorely missed this Winter!

Don't know if anyone has heard of this young lad called Steve but he's good for a laugh, here's his latest Winter forecast http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iy4bK1dLcS0

 

Hmm........

[bobbydog]

I didn't last that long, either...

 

neither did i, i think i must have laughed myself to sleep........

[feb1991blizzard]

There is some excellent research and pattern matching going on by some people in this thread, the stratosphere thread and the winter forecast thread, there is some worthwhile material on youtube that is worth watching but be wary on that site and you may need to sort through a lot of rubbish to get to some decent material, I would urge anyone taking an interest in this winter and forecasts in advance to follow the strat thread above all else but also other threads on here as a first point of reference but stay tuned and don't get despondent IF things don't look good at an early stage because things can change.

[pandit-scholar]

Stopped at 6 minutes, my stomachs hurting it so funny, will watch the rest tomorrow.

You haven't seen the last few minutes then!! He predicts a record heatwave next summer, the lowest pressure storm ever to hit the UK next summer and Tornadoes!!

[feb1991blizzard]

You haven't seen the last few minutes then!! He predicts a record heatwave next summer, the lowest pressure storm ever to hit the UK next summer and Tornadoes!!

 

I did flick through part when I had recovered and heard the last bit!!

[Cloud 10]

I didn't last that long, either...

 

 

Me neither.......same old story.. 

[Jack Wales]

Still can't stop laughing!! Classic quotes from that vid...

 

"6ft of snow on high ground"

 

"-28C"

 

"there is going to be a low pressure looking to be around Christmas time"

 

"That's because the tilt of the earth is going to be more forward than last year"

 

"The jet stream is not keeping up with the motion of the earth"

 

"The jet stream fights off low pressure coming in from the west"

 

"i just call 'em bubbles becasue I don't actually know the names for them"

 

 

Typical, he has to be welsh as well!

Edited October 18, 2013 by Jack Wales

[MrSunshine]

Still can't stop laughing!! Classic quotes from that vid...

 

"6ft of snow on high ground"

 

"-28C"

 

"there is going to be a low pressure looking to be around Christmas time"

 

"That's because the tilt of the earth is going to be more forward than last year"

 

"The jet stream is not keeping up with the motion of the earth"

 

"The jet stream fights off low pressure coming in from the west"

 

"i just call 'em bubbles becasue I don't actually know the names for them"

 

 

Typical, he has to be welsh as well!

 

It's comical to say the least. I'm friends with him on Facebook, can't wait to rip him to pieces throughout the coming winter. Think it's safe to say we won't be Facebook friends by the end of the winter! lol 

[Roger J Smith]

I think the discussion was basically fair and it doesn't surprise me that one or two readers are more hostile than most, for one thing not everyone has been around for five years or longer and gone through the whole process here with the various long-range forecasts and how mine has actually fared relative to others. I think on that scale these are among the more reliable forecasts you're going to see most times, but I can't say in advance which time will be the one where the forecast lags behind its usual performance values and why, if I could, I would fix it in advance. I do recall that in 2009-10 there was a reader poll and my joint forecast with BFTP was given the highest rating. Anecdotally the same was said about the summer 2013 outlook. But neither of those was seen to be 100% accurate and there's always lots of room for improvement.

 

The point about the mild Christmas should probably be scaled down to a call for a very mild spell around Christmas, I mentioned record high values to give some context for how mild it could be, and I won't be surprised if it gets that mild but certainly something above 10 C is clearly indicated by the output. IIRC the call for Christmas last year was fairly accurate but it's a time of year when systems can be moving very rapidly and I think last year illustrated that even during the three-day period 24th to 26th there could be very rapid changes in temperature in some places. The output of course isn't on such a fine scale, it's predicting averages for 24-hour periods.

 

Anyway, this is ground-breaking research and as somebody once told me, ground-breaking is what people do just before you get lowered into your grave, so once again it's a take it or leave it situation.

[feb1991blizzard]

It's comical to say the least. I'm friends with him on Facebook, can't wait to rip him to pieces throughout the coming winter. Think it's safe to say we won't be Facebook friends by the end of the winter! lol 

 

Lets hope it goes the other way, I would take him coming on here quoting my posts and posting analysis charts with -20 850hpa temps engulfing the BI and having a go at me anyday, if it meant me getting a complete tonking all the way through winter!

[pandit-scholar]

Lets hope it goes the other way, I would take him coming on here quoting my posts and posting analysis charts with -20 850hpa temps engulfing the BI and having a go at me anyday, if it meant me getting a complete tonking all the way through winter!

I think Gavin must be keeping his fingers crossed that this guy's prediction of a record heatwave next summer comes off!!

[feb1991blizzard]

I think Gavin must be keeping his fingers crossed that this guy's prediction of a record heatwave next summer comes off!!

 

Yes, that would be a bit of a poser for me, would I take a record breaking 47 style 2 month pasting but then have to put up with a 76 summer?, my heart says yes, but my head says I would be dead if I had to put up with a summer like that, I struggle with 23c in this gaf.

Edited October 18, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Panayiotis]

My hopes for this winter ahead. lol

[MrSunshine]

My hopes for this winter ahead. lol

 

Fantastic chart! Same again please!

[Conor Sherwin]

My hopes for this winter ahead. lol

WHAT ABOUT IRELAND 

[Panayiotis]

WHAT ABOUT IRELAND 

Sorry, Is this better?

[John Badrick]

I think the discussion was basically fair and it doesn't surprise me that one or two readers are more hostile than most, for one thing not everyone has been around for five years or longer and gone through the whole process here with the various long-range forecasts and how mine has actually fared relative to others. I think on that scale these are among the more reliable forecasts you're going to see most times, but I can't say in advance which time will be the one where the forecast lags behind its usual performance values and why, if I could, I would fix it in advance. I do recall that in 2009-10 there was a reader poll and my joint forecast with BFTP was given the highest rating. Anecdotally the same was said about the summer 2013 outlook. But neither of those was seen to be 100% accurate and there's always lots of room for improvement.

 

The point about the mild Christmas should probably be scaled down to a call for a very mild spell around Christmas, I mentioned record high values to give some context for how mild it could be, and I won't be surprised if it gets that mild but certainly something above 10 C is clearly indicated by the output. IIRC the call for Christmas last year was fairly accurate but it's a time of year when systems can be moving very rapidly and I think last year illustrated that even during the three-day period 24th to 26th there could be very rapid changes in temperature in some places. The output of course isn't on such a fine scale, it's predicting averages for 24-hour periods.

 

Anyway, this is ground-breaking research and as somebody once told me, ground-breaking is what people do just before you get lowered into your grave, so once again it's a take it or leave it situation.

could you give some info Roger on the ground breaking research and what influences the signals you're getting this far out. The snowmaggedon forecasts we get every year are usually explained by the suns influence on the jet sstream, I'm interested in how the opposite is forecast ie milder tHan everage.cheers

[Gael_Force]

could you give some info Roger on the ground breaking research and what influences the signals you're getting this far out. The snowmaggedon forecasts we get every year are usually explained by the suns influence on the jet sstream, I'm interested in how the opposite is forecast ie milder tHan everage.cheers

 

It depends which stage the solar cycle is at; we are currently at or near solar max (albeit a very weak one) - the stage most associated with strong PV and zonal flow. We really don't know which solar factors cause the changes in flow; is it sunspot number, TSI, UV, or something else?

 

I'm sure we will be finding out a lot more in the years to come as solar physics studies this exciting period with all the new tech tools.

[Jaffusmaximus]

My hopes for this winter ahead. lol

 

Ah come on, not even a single flake their over the Republic of Ireland 

[UV-RAY]

It depends which stage the solar cycle is at; we are currently at or near solar max (albeit a very weak one) - the stage most associated with strong PV and zonal flow. We really don't know which solar factors cause the changes in flow; is it sunspot number, TSI, UV, or something else?

 

I'm sure we will be finding out a lot more in the years to come as solar physics studies this exciting period with all the new tech tools.

A lot more research is needed but IMO UV is the important factor here, one thing the quite sun has taught us is how little we know about it.

[bobbydog]

Yes snow cover is doing well.Not a good thing that the snow is melting from below.

 

notice that the "melt from below" has turned into an increase overnight?

 

 

[pdjakow]

What is really sad about J.Madden is that he apparently think that there was major Gulfstream slowdown between 2009 and 2010, which he often illustrates like that:

 

 

However it's not true. This image shows results of RTOFS model and "slowdown" is a result of changes in model, not in ocean currents. This change occured between sep 18 2009 and sep 19 2009. You can check this here:

http://data.nodc.noaa.gov/opendap/ncep/rtofs/2009/200909/ofs.20090918/surface/

 

18/19 sep 2009 difference:

 

 

What is even more sad is that I send him an email about this issue in august 2011.

Edited October 19, 2013 by pdjakow

[syed2878]

@barie95. I'm glad to c that there r no snow hurrycanes on it's way for the u.k. Anyway i hope rjs forecast is wrong for this winter.

[BornFromTheVoid]

That all may well be so but anyone who reads a LRF from anyone thinking that it is much more than a roll of the dice is deluding themselves. I'm sure that he makes his forecatss honestly but that's no reason to give it the time of day.

 

 

I think it's fair to relate him to someone who is being so specific, he is quoting dates which is ludicrous. Record mild temps on Christmas day or raging blizzards on Christmas day, two different forecast but with the same motive....trying to get a reaction!!! I have learnt over the years not to get sucked in and emotional, especially at such an early stage in Autumn.Listen to the more informative folk on here ie chiono,Recretos,SK,Lorenzo, Interitis,Johnholmes,CC,to name but a few

 

This response is for both of ye.

The thing is, I disagree with RJS on many things, especially his forecasting methodology. Having a science background myself, I find it a little off putting to see someone go against the well established (perhaps proven) terrestrial, teleconnective relationships, but, I can appreciate the huge amount of honest effort he's put into his forecasts. Over the years of reading them, it seems apparent that he doesn't twist them in order to get a reaction. He's not trying to profiteer or garner media attention off his forecasts.

He's had threads on this forum with what looks like dozens of hours work put into explaining his methods and research. Even his calm and reasoned reaction to the attacks and criticism directed towards him here is impressive!

 

I can completely understand the aversion to long range forecaster predicting events on specific dates, but most of them (Madden, Ken Ring, etc) are in it for the media attention and money, which isn't the case with RJS. By all means, critique his methods, call him out when he gets things wrongs, ask (kindly!) for an explanation for something that seems outlandish, but in my eyes, it's completely unreasonable and insulting to box him in with the likes of Madden.

Edited October 19, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gael_Force]

Absolutely, BFTV. Madden knows his target audience, caters to what they need/want to hear and relies on the links they post to generate site traffic. The best thing anyone can do is stop clicking on the links instead of doing so and then moaning about the content. Do not give charlatans the exposure and revenue they want.

Edited October 19, 2013 by Gael_Force