Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Buriedundersnow]

Re TWO intial thoughts from bian GAZE...Sunspots are currently 3,  I don't see the recent overall solar activity level as moderate, levels are low and have been?

 

BFTP

 

current sunspot number looks high

 

Daily Sun: 16 Oct 13

Sunspot AR1865 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

 

Sunspot number: 148  

 

[feb1991blizzard]

current sunspot number looks high

 

Daily Sun: 16 Oct 13

Sunspot AR1865 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

 

Sunspot number: 148  

 

 

 

I can only see a few on there, should you be able to see all of them or not.

[Yarmy]

Even at this early stage from what I can gather most of the reliable forecasters who don't go OTT are not going for a cold Winter, of course unlike James Madden!

 

I think this Winter will be very frustrating for coldies. Could be even milder than 2011-12.

 

There are exactly ZERO reliable forecasters at this range. Count em.

 

Are you going to supply your own long range forecast rationale?

[Dancerwithwings]

I can only see a few on there, should you be able to see all of them or not.

I hope not otherwise we all need to go and make an appointment at specsavers

[Yarmy]

I can only see a few on there, should you be able to see all of them or not.

 

Sunspot count is irrelevant. Look at the 10.7cm flux. It's been higher than recent weeks for the past few days, but still low for solar peak activity.

And having said all that, I'm not (yet!) a big fan of solar-climate connections.

[Buriedundersnow]

I can only see a few on there, should you be able to see all of them or not.

 

 

they are there just not very big.

 

if u go here and click on the sun u will get a bigger pic on your screen

 

http://spaceweather.com/

 

I know sunspot numbers aren't the only thing to look at with the sun you have flux aswell but when the numbers tend to go up the flux usually does aswell

[Yarmy]

they are there just not very big.

 

if u go here and click on the sun u will get a bigger pic on your screen

 

http://spaceweather.com/

 

I know sunspot numbers aren't the only thing to look at with the sun you have flux aswell but when the numbers tend to go up the flux usually does aswell

 

They are (very) closely correlated which is why historic sunspot counts can be used to deduce past solar activity. But the point is you don't need to count them because it's the 10.7cm radio flux that matters and that is measured accurately in Canada several times a day.

[bobbydog]

i strongly agree I think this winter is setting up against anything cold.

infact I think this winter will be the warmest since 2000

 

i'm surprised to hear that from you M R,

 

"setting up against anything cold"??? we're well ahead of the 2010 snow advance for a start, only half way through october!

MID AUTUMN i should add!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

current sunspot number looks high

 

Daily Sun: 16 Oct 13

Sunspot AR1865 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
 

Sunspot number: 148  
 

 

I should add that even as 3 on 15th it is irrelevant singularly but how its been over period of time. Overall the sun is quiet not moderate.  Anyway we await to see if its importance continues...

 

BFTP

Edited October 16, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

 

current sunspot number looks high

 

Daily Sun: 16 Oct 13

Sunspot AR1865 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

 

Sunspot number: 148  

 

 

I should add that even as 3 on 15th it is irrelevant singularly but how its been over period of time. Overall the sun is quiet not moderate.  Anyway we await to see if its importance continues...

 

BFTP

 

Or...if its importance can even be verified? 

[feb1991blizzard]

Im not sure whether to be rooting for solar activity or not TBH, its not just Madden that says this but a lot of others think there is a link between low solar activity and a southerly tracking Jetstream, however, isn't an SSW more likely during a +QBO if we are in a solar maximum?

[tight isobar]

Whatever your stance,on this coming winter,there should be no directive until the month of October is conclusion...And perhaps the issue that most needs flagging is the overall interpret.the evolve of trending.and of most importance,how the individual projects evolution.I will most certain take evolution more incline over months end......

[Methuselah]

Im not sure whether to be rooting for solar activity or not TBH, its not just Madden that says this but a lot of others think there is a link between low solar activity and a southerly tracking Jetstream, however, isn't an SSW more likely during a +QBO if we are in a solar maximum?

I don't, for one minute, dismiss the link Fred mentioned. It's just that it's only one factor out of who-knows-how-many...

[Buriedundersnow]

Or...if its importance can even be verified? 

 

winter 2011/2012

 

sunspot numbers and flux went up we had a crap winter as the atlantic slammed us.

 

just now

 

sunspot numbers and flux going up and here comes the atlantic after being dormant

 

might be nothing but just two examples

[Methuselah]

winter 2011/2012

 

sunspot numbers and flux went up we had a crap winter as the atlantic slammed us.

 

just now

 

sunspot numbers and flux going up and here comes the atlantic after being dormant

 

might be nothing but just two examples

And 1947? 

[Mark Neal.]

An interesting area, is there a link of some sort, which sunspots and uk winters, can relate too? Or is there not enough evidence to suggest there be an effect, one area i am still getting to grips with and a looking at learning more is the solar influence on our weather! 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Or...if its importance can even be verified? 

 

Indeed, I think what we can only do is observe and gather data, there is anecdotal linkage and I think if we get a Dalton or Maunder minimum we'll be in better position to evaluate.  There is a lot of 'co-incidence though....

 

BFTP

Edited October 16, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowman.]

An interesting area, is there a link of some sort, which sunspots and uk winters, can relate too? Or is there not enough evidence to suggest there be an effect, one area i am still getting to grips with and a looking at learning more is the solar influence on our weather! 

2010 the sun was almost dead of sunspots 200 odd days of spotless days. Scary when you look at it on a graph.

 

[Mark Neal.]

2010 the sun was almost dead of sunspots 200 odd days of spotless days. Scary when you look at it on a graph.

 

 

Thanks for sharing.. We had that cold spell in January 2010 and again late NOV/DEC 2010 a co-incidence or more? 

[Yarmy]

Indeed, I think what we can only do is observe and gather data, there is anecdotal linkage and I think if we get a Dalton or Maunder minimum we'll be in better position to evaluate.  There is a lot of 'co-incidence though....

 

BFTP

 

While I'm sceptical, the good thing is that it does look like we could be heading towards a Maunder type dearth of sunspots for at least the next cycle and beyond.

 

If we're all still on here in 2030 we might have a better idea then. If it gets then maybe there's something to it.

[Buriedundersnow]

2010 the sun was almost dead of sunspots 200 odd days of spotless days. Scary when you look at it on a graph.

 

 

I think through the next minimum theres a good chance we will only see maybe 20-25 days a year over a 3-4 year period with minimal sunspot activity and the rest spotless

[snowking]

Re TWO intial thoughts from bian GAZE...Sunspots are currently 3, I don't see the recent overall solar activity level as moderate, levels are low and have been?BFTP

Depends where you take the data from BFTP - a problem I find with solar activity tracking in generalFor example, taking the SESC daily count there has been a real spoke in activity in recent days, with 10.7cm flux up to around 125 and the sunspot count today at 148. Obviously there are different calculation methods going on because the overall averages are far higher than the ISES monthly averaged counts.However despite this, there does appear to have been a spike in recent days.SK

[Methuselah]

2010 the sun was almost dead of sunspots 200 odd days of spotless days. Scary when you look at it on a graph.

 

Why plot two entirely independent variables?

[chionomaniac]

Im not sure whether to be rooting for solar activity or not TBH, its not just Madden that says this but a lot of others think there is a link between low solar activity and a southerly tracking Jetstream, however, isn't an SSW more likely during a +QBO if we are in a solar maximum?

Labitzke, who has completed this study, states that solar max is above 150 units (10.7cm) of flux during Jan/Feb. So going by that we are heading well below that value for this winter - though there has been a SSW in wQBO and similar solar conditions.

 

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/labitzke/moreqbo/MZ-Labitzke-et-al-2006.pdf

Edited October 16, 2013 by chionomaniac

[feb1991blizzard]

Labitzke, who has completed this study, states that solar max is above 150 units (10.7cm) of flux during Jan/Feb. So going by that we are heading well below that value for this winter - though there has been a SSW in wQBO and similar solar conditions.

 

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/labitzke/moreqbo/MZ-Labitzke-et-al-2006.pdf

 

Thanks, its a shame my computer is so garbage that I cannot open PDFs, thanks anyway.