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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Some people would say that's a super duper chart but I would take it any day, 21st Oct with the Vortex way to the east and a great big slither of yellow straight through the North pole.

 

 

Posted Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Some people would say that's a onions chart but I would take it any day, 21st Oct with the Vortex way to the east and a great big slither of yellow straight through the North pole.

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

lots of potential in a chart like that.

 

I see the GFS is getting itself back into winter mode already.

 

ie: not having a clue what is going on or being able to decide on a pattern.

 

hope it doesn't go on all winter like this as it seemed to do most of last winter

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Some people would say that's a onions chart but I would take it any day, 21st Oct with the Vortex way to the east and a great big slither of yellow straight through the North pole.

 

 

Posted Image

 

Nice potential! I can imagine that lobe of vortex to the South of Greenland causing huge headaches though, it's definitely not in a favourable position

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

So many stonker charts posted in the last couple of days, am really buzzing for Winter now.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

So many stonker charts posted in the last couple of days, am really buzzing for Winter now.

 

yes........hmmmm.......people on here mock the Daily Express (rightly) for its OTT weather stories but to be honest it's not much better reading this thread at times during Autumn. EVERY winter is about to be the bestest, most coldest ever.

 

Anyway, i'd love to see a cold November and a snowy December/January. Then it can warm up during february. 

 

But epic CFS charts aside, i'm not holding my breath (and they aren't quite so epic this morning i notice). 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

Here is the winter forecast for the USA from http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742

The overall picture of things;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

 

 

They seem to imply a -PNA dominating the early winter, but not necessarily the whole winter. An active -PNA tends to be correlated to a +NAO, so perhaps a mild start to the winter for the UK?

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

They seem to imply a -PNA dominating the early winter, but not necessarily the whole winter. An active -PNA tends to be correlated to a +NAO, so perhaps a mild start to the winter for the UK?

There's two ways of looking at thatMuch of the time I would agree with you, but a deeply negative PNA pattern would also imply some meridonality (I'm not convinced that's necessarily an actual word!) in the flow upstream with an East coast ridge - usually I look for a strongly positive or a strongly negative PNA signature, as anything more towards neutral tends to suggest something flatter entering the Western Atlantic. The biggest risk with a -PNA and the right loading conditions I find tends to be a very weak west based negative NAO.But I would agree nevertheless of the likelihood of a slow start to the winter this year.SK Edited by snowking
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

There's two ways of looking at thatMuch of the time I would agree with you, but a deeply negative PNA pattern would also imply some meridonality (I'm not convinced that's necessarily an actual word!) in the flow upstream with an East coast ridge - usually I look for a strongly positive or a strongly negative PNA signature, as anything more towards neutral tends to suggest something flatter entering the Western Atlantic. The biggest risk with a -PNA and the right loading conditions I find tends to be a very weak west based negative NAO.But I would agree nevertheless of the likelihood of a slow start to the winter this year.SK

When I've looked into a correlation between these two I've found conflicting signals so I would disregard this to a degree as an indicator to the upcoming winter. Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

Thanks snowking and SI. I remember reading a paper which suggested there was no correlation through the whole reanalysis period. But I've also seen it claimed that there is a correlation and a sensible mechanism behind it. The methodology and filtering of weaker events probably has an impact on the final result. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Over on TWO the buzz is saying that the cold snap is going to fail and mild westerly is going to set in. Any thoughts on that.

 

Where in Stafford are you? way too early to say whether a westerly will set in etc, parts of winter is bound to have westerly/mild spells

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

Over on TWO the buzz is saying that the cold snap is going to fail and mild westerly is going to set in. Any thoughts on that.

Pretty sure Brian on Two was talking about next week and not the coming Winter
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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

Pretty sure Brian on Two was talking about next week and not the coming Winter

Yet It will stop the snow cover in europe/russia in its tracks if it does happen there will be no snow in norway,eastern europe,western russia and may push the snow back.So its is a setback if it does happen yet models can change from day to day,lets see what happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Pretty sure Brian on Two was talking about next week and not the coming Winter

He was talking about the coming weather not winter in general. His winter thoughts have been brief and unsure wether he thinks mild or cold or average.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Over on TWO the buzz is saying that the cold snap is going to fail and mild westerly is going to set in. Any thoughts on that.

 

Its next week Brian is talking about

 

 

There's still uncertainty about the medium term prospects, but it now looks as though a vigorous area of low pressure in the Atlantic will push milder weather up from the south west during the middle part of next week. Unfortunately that also means it's likely to turn wet and windy.

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Posted
  • Location: Stafford
  • Location: Stafford

Sorry my mistake

I got the impression that this cold snap was around untill next weekend then warmer and following that a cold progression into November then its best guess after that.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

I posted this in the media thread but yesterdays Sun had quoted the

Met office as saying that November and December will be colder than

normal.

 

Yes I'm guessing they've used the contingency planners forecast and twisted the words as normal

 

Models have a weak signal for slightly higher-than-average pressure to the north of the UK, suggesting a slight weakening of the prevailing mean westerlies, which could allow a greater-than-average incidence of blocking patterns.

 

This period is a transitional time of year in which a given circulation pattern can result in very different temperature outcomes between the beginning and the end of the season.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2797743

 

Note the words "weak", "slightly" and "could"

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

What is that?

Low pressure to the east/over Durham bringing NE winds for the northern half of the UK and Ireland with westerly winds for the southern half.

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

No fair Posted Image

Its 10 days away (not much reliability) and just eye candy atm and if it did verify,most of the UK would see progressively colder conditions soon after.

Edited by Panayiotis
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