Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[syed2878]

i c ian started earllyer this year lol as for the strat atm its mor reliable or the met wouldn't use it. Faireplay to chio for his work regarding the strat. Just out of interest when u starting the new strat thread? Chio.

[feb1991blizzard]

Normally ignore 384 GFS but it does tie in with what the Met are saying, I just hope the PV isn't in full swing by November but still have my fears.

[Cloud 10]

i c ian started earllyer this year lol as for the strat atm its mor reliable or the met wouldn't use it. Faireplay to chio for his work regarding the strat. Just out of interest when u starting the new strat thread? Chio.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74587-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20122013/page-124#entry2802155

[AWD]

Normally ignore 384 GFS but it does tie in with what the Met are saying, I just hope the PV isn't in full swing by November but still have my fears.

Even if it does readily form during November it's not the end of the world. Winter is a 3 month season, not just December. We will just have to look more towards help from stratospheric conditions/wave breaking to split any developed PV fur the second half of winter.

[Captain Shortwave]

Normally ignore 384 GFS but it does tie in with what the Met are saying, I just hope the PV isn't in full swing by November but still have my fears.

It's just one run, the last couple were showing blazing northerlies. So take it with a skip full of salt 

I think there will be a very cold north/North easterly down the line, it will just take an eternity to get here. Yay for probably the worlds slowest moving Atlantic low.

[Summer Sun]

t384 from GFS for what feb1991blizzard was referring to

 

[Methuselah]

Is that the first official 'winter is over before it has even started' post of the new season? 

[feb1991blizzard]

It's just one run, the last couple were showing blazing northerlies. So take it with a skip full of salt 

I think there will be a very cold north/North easterly down the line, it will just take an eternity to get here. Yay for probably the worlds slowest moving Atlantic low.

 

Yes but the EC32 must be having this as a recurring signal, I doubt we will go all the way through until End Nov without having a fast moving Westerly regime at some point, of course AWD has a valid point that even if it does ramp up, we could still get a split and rapid turnaround like 2010, I am still not nailing any colours to the mast regarding the opening gambits in 2013/14 snow hoping season yet, I am just pointing out certain things for and against a good start.

[feb1991blizzard]

Is that the first official 'winter is over before it has even started' post of the new season? 

 

No, if I thought winter was over before it started then you would hardly see me on here until late Aug or Sept 14!

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes but the EC32 must be having this as a recurring signal, I doubt we will go all the way through until End Nov without having a fast moving Westerly regime at some point, of course AWD has a valid point that even if it does ramp up, we could still get a split and rapid turnaround like 2010, I am still not nailing any colours to the mast regarding the opening gambits in 2013/14 snow hoping season yet, I am just pointing out certain things for and against a good start.

If heights remain fairly high over Greenland for the rest of the month, a northerly is inevitable. It just might take a while to get here.

Also the polar vortex can do what it likes whilst it's stuck over Siberia

Also the EC32 has performed terribly recently and was also going for the phantom warm first half of October so how can we trust it 

Edited October 8, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Gavin Hannah]

Yes but the EC32 must be having this as a recurring signal, I doubt we will go all the way through until End Nov without having a fast moving Westerly regime at some point, of course AWD has a valid point that even if it does ramp up, we could still get a split and rapid turnaround like 2010, I am still not nailing any colours to the mast regarding the opening gambits in 2013/14 snow hoping season yet, I am just pointing out certain things for and against a good start.

 

I don't see the westerlies dominating this year.  Even if we do have to endure them for a few weeks, I think the massive Siberian snow cover is going to come to our rescue. I'm looking for the Siberian High to move westwards and deliver the goods come mid - late December.

[bluearmy]

 

Also the EC32 has performed terribly recently and was also going for the phantom warm first half of October so how can we trust it 

 

phantom ? hadley running at +3 c.  are you confusing warm with tropical ??

[feb1991blizzard]

Hope so.

If heights remain fairly high over Greenland for the rest of the month, a northerly is inevitable. It just might take a while to get here.

Also the polar vortex can do what it likes whilst it's stuck over Siberia

Also the EC32 has performed terribly recently and was also going for the phantom warm first half of October so how can we trust it 

 

A Northerly this October is absolutely inevitable, I agree!!!

 

Edited October 8, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Captain Shortwave]

phantom ? hadley running at +3 c.  are you confusing warm with tropical ??

It won't be by the 15th of October though. The pattern change to be fair caught every model out, except the UKMO.

Edited October 8, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[smithyweather]

If that is the case then maybe Frosty is right and we are going to get the mother of all cold spells at the end of the month. 

[feb1991blizzard]

 

Snow creeping nearer and nearer.

Edited October 8, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[cheese]

If that is the case then maybe Frosty is right and we are going to get the mother of all cold spells at the end of the month. 

Mother of all cold spells? In October?! What a waste of time that would be.

[The Bevmeister]

Long time reader, pretty new member- first time poster......!!  Is it likely that we will see any SSW this year or is it likely to be a more gradual process bearing in mind the 'general' predictions are for a cold winter and that there are nice 'shaping up' signs?

[feb1991blizzard]

And after that we see an even more interesting setup.

 

 

[-uksnow-]

It's extremely promising to see theme of sliding lows cropping up already, great ECM.

[bobbydog]

i admire the enthusiasm on this thread for colder weather but calm down everyone. winter is coming, just not next week.

lets get through autumn first, seeing as we're not even half way through it yet!

 

patience grasshopper.....

[Buriedundersnow]

looking at todays 12z outputs from ECM,GFS and UKMO I don't think we can look past 120-144h and say any are wrong or right as the low pressure looking to develop to the southeast still isn't stuck on exactly how it is going to develop and progress as all three models seem to do different things with it

 

ECM

 

 

GFS

 

 

UKMO

 

 

as we see all three models have this feature doing different things and till we get this worked out over the next few days then all scenarios from all models are still game on at this moment in time

[Captain Shortwave]

This chart

Is the moment where I entered cold mode, surface Scandi ridge, starting point of a textbook retrogression evolution. I hope more cold air gets pushed into Central Europe before a trough drops into Scandinavia as this could result in a rather spectacular second half to October.

[Weather-history]

looking at todays 12z outputs from ECM,GFS and UKMO I don't think we can look past 120-144h and say any are wrong or right as the low pressure looking to develop to the southeast still isn't stuck on exactly how it is going to develop and progress as all three models seem to do different things with it

 

ECM

 

ECM1-120.gifECM1-144.gif

 

GFS

 

gfs-0-120.pnggfs-0-144.png

 

UKMO

 

UW120-21.gifUW144-21.gif

 

as we see all three models have this feature doing different things and till we get this worked out over the next few days then all scenarios from all models are still game on at this moment in time

I'm in a right nitpicking mood

What have those charts got to do with next winter? Aren't we still in autumn? Isn't this just a model discussion?

Nit pick over

[feb1991blizzard]

looking at todays 12z outputs from ECM,GFS and UKMO I don't think we can look past 120-144h and say any are wrong or right as the low pressure looking to develop to the southeast still isn't stuck on exactly how it is going to develop and progress as all three models seem to do different things with it

 

ECM

 

ECM1-120.gifECM1-144.gif

 

GFS

 

gfs-0-120.pnggfs-0-144.png

 

UKMO

 

UW120-21.gifUW144-21.gif

 

as we see all three models have this feature doing different things and till we get this worked out over the next few days then all scenarios from all models are still game on at this moment in time

 

To be honest though, as long as the low in the Atlantic digs south (ECM) or disrupts and sends a shortwave south though, we have a chance,  what we really need if we get there ultimately though is any low heights to the south to elongate SW to NE and link with the fridgid air over scandi in order to smash the floodgates open for something better, a long shot but im staying on here now because once this interesting period of model watching is resolved it will almost be time for stratwatch time anyway and then time to get down to some more realistic chances.

Edited October 8, 2013 by feb1991blizzard