Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Chess01]

Another couple of inches wouldn't go amiss

haha Crewe I remember last winter In January us in stoke got pasted while you up the road were fuming because you got half as much

[feb1991blizzard]

Massive mountain ranges, how far are those Himalayas.

 

You are at 600ft here and half a mile or more and you are nearly another 1000ft on top of that.

[Chess01]

It is a weird case of geography thought . I remember going to manchester airport when we had that cold few weeks in January and as we got into knutsford and near the airport there was only specks of snow on the grass where as it covered the roads where I lived . Using the m6 traffic cams is interesting when we have snow as you can see who's got the money shot and who hasn't got it

[Chess01]

I always prefer a Greenland high than a Russian high . So much more easy to get and can deliver if the Irish Sea is playing ball . An easterly doesn't really cut the mustard here as it just delivers snow showers unless there's a battleground scenario. North easterly can be better

[Buriedundersnow]

                                                                  is this cold

 

the chart again

 

 

heres the 850's

 

 

2m temp

 

 

precipitation

 

 

yeah it would be cold and any precipitation would be falling as snow but may be a little close as to if it would be sleet or snow in the far south

[Buriedundersnow]

 

again heres the chart incase its changes

 

 

850's

 

 

2m temps

 

 

precipitation

 

 

in this one there would be snow showers to northern Scotland but nothing too severe and possibly some front end frontal sleet or snow to the south

Edited October 5, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[BornFromTheVoid]

With the recent US government shut down, I think their National Weather Service is trying to say something...

 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=AFC&product=AFD&format=TXT&version=5&glossary=0

 

[stewfox]

When people say straight into winter. Do they mean 2010 style like " 15c one day then 1c the next". Or do they mean an average 6c winter?

 

When was it 15c one day and 1c the next ?  Also are you talking about 2009/10 or 2010/11 both were below the long term average for DJF at 3.5c and 2.4c so didn't approach a well above average for DJF of 6c. I would take either year again

[smithyweather]

Well around 10th it was 10/12c then it dropped really quick to about 0c max for the 28th.

[Radiating Dendrite]

18 days is not really one day to the next

I think straight into winter means from mild and benign conditions to cold, frost and maybe a bit of snow.

[feb1991blizzard]

When was it 15c one day and 1c the next ?  Also are you talking about 2009/10 or 2010/11 both were below the long term average for DJF at 3.5c and 2.4c so didn't approach a well above average for DJF of 6c. I would take either year again

 

I remember in 2010 when it was 8c then a couple of hours later nearly freezing.

[Nights King]

I've not had more than 10cm/4 inches in as long as I can remember. Would love to see a big fall.

 

Incredible to think places so far north can get so much less than us cider drinking west country folk in the tropics down here.

[bryan629]

 

 

im afraid for us coldies were just going to have to put up with the short term and pretend its still august

ok , posted a couple of days ago as the models were showing we would be stuck in a rut till around mid month... high pressure dominance for the forseeable etc : now what a difference a few days makes, this benign weather looks like a very short lived affair , the models are all over the shop now, but what has changed them so suddenly and quickly ... what signal have they picked up on , is the jet going to fire up? is there going to be a sudden spurt of energy comming up from the mid-latitudes Atlantic? ... is it that big storm in the American mid west influencing things downstream?... i have no idea , would love to hear your views though

[smithyweather]

Incredible to think places so far north can get so much less than us cider drinking west country folk in the tropics down here.

But hes right beside the sea. Them north western parts of england are pretty close to mildest winters in England. It snows here far more and is far colder. You will see this if you look at met office maps

[cheese]

Incredible to think places so far north can get so much less than us cider drinking west country folk in the tropics down here.

You have good elevation too, remember, at nearly 300m if I remember correctly? Elevation is the most important factor in the UK as far as snow is concerned. The difference between north and south is not significant within England at least.

Edited October 5, 2013 by cheese

[stewfox]

18 days is not really one day to the next

I think straight into winter means from mild and benign conditions to cold, frost and maybe a bit of snow.

 

Hasn't a theme of recent winters be the lack of going from very cold to very mild or vice versa

 

Wasn't one winter we didn't have a temp (CET) above 10c for 60/70 days ?

 

Might be wrong but at least IMBY many snow events in recent years have melted out slowly and my snowmen have  survived many days or even weeks. I cant remember all the snow going in 24/48hrs

Edited October 5, 2013 by stewfox

[Buriedundersnow]

CFS 12z anomalies charts not going for cold in November but is going for a pretty cold and blocked winter and even staying cooler into spring

 

height anomalies

 

 

temp anomalies

 

[-uksnow-]

CFS 12z anomalies charts not going for cold in November but is going for a pretty cold and blocked winter and even staying cooler into spring

 

height anomalies

 

cfsnh-4-11-2013.pngcfsnh-4-12-2013.pngcfsnh-4-1-2014.pngcfsnh-4-2-2014.pngcfsnh-4-3-2014.pngcfsnh-4-4-2014.png

 

temp anomalies

 

cfsnh-8-11-2013.pngcfsnh-8-12-2013.pngcfsnh-8-1-2014.pngcfsnh-8-2-2014.pngcfsnh-8-3-2014.pngcfsnh-8-4-2014.png

 

 

Yes, strong signal for a scandi high and undercutting lows on this run - Lovely.

 

[Conor Sherwin]

CFS 12z anomalies charts not going for cold in November but is going for a pretty cold and blocked winter and even staying cooler into spring

 

height anomalies

 

cfsnh-4-11-2013.pngcfsnh-4-12-2013.pngcfsnh-4-1-2014.pngcfsnh-4-2-2014.pngcfsnh-4-3-2014.pngcfsnh-4-4-2014.png

 

temp anomalies

 

cfsnh-8-11-2013.pngcfsnh-8-12-2013.pngcfsnh-8-1-2014.pngcfsnh-8-2-2014.pngcfsnh-8-3-2014.pngcfsnh-8-4-2014.png

LOOKS SEXY 

[Cloud 10]

Tasty chart for December from the CFS ensembles.

 

[Isolated Frost]

Most we got here was 5-6 inches, in mid-January 2013... but down the road in Consett and Derwentside, Cloud 10 and others saw a foot and even more in drifts off of a huge snow event towards the end of the spell.

2008-09: largest depth 11cm

2009-10: largest depth 34cm

2010-11: largest depth 42cm

2011-12: largest depth 1cm

2012-13: largest depth 15cm

[Conor Sherwin]

Tasty chart for December from the CFS ensembles.

 

glbz700MonInd3.gif

yum yum

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I've not had more than 10cm/4 inches in as long as I can remember. Would love to see a big.

 

LOL

 

BFTP

[Captain Shortwave]

Well if the ECM verified then all my thoughts and feelings about winter will be ditched.

Simply put if all the long ranges models can get October hilariously wrong at even a week out. What sodding chance of the cold winter they showing turning out to be correct. 

To be honest I think I will watch out for Chio's and Lorenzo's thoughts in the stratospheric thread because my faith in long range model forecasting has sunk like the titanic. 

[> mark]

Well if the ECM verified then all my thoughts and feelings about winter will be ditched.

Simply put if all the long ranges models can get October hilariously wrong at even a week out. What sodding chance of the cold winter they showing turning out to be correct. 

To be honest I think I will watch out for Chio's and Lorenzo's thoughts in the stratospheric thread because my faith in long range model forecasting has sunk like the titanic. 

 

Given the size, shape and geographical location of the UK any forecast more than t +6hrs can be pretty "out"! Just look at his week, we were predicted biblical rain until about 2 hours out when it all split W & E.

 

What will be, will be. Damn if the computers could work out the weather in advance then why not predict the lotto numbers ....... would be better odds!