Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Conor Sherwin]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ie/dublin/207931/daily-weather-forecast/207931?day=45

snow forecast with winds could be blizzards 

[Dancerwithwings]

monaghan dont no were but my dad said it -23 on his thermometer and on his van 

I think i'll take that as unofficial then ( thermometer and on his van)

[Gaz1985]

monaghan dont no were but my dad said it -23 on his thermometer and on his van 

 

-23 in Ireland?? you sure? 

[smithyweather]

-23 in Ireland?? you sure?

Um??? And why not...

[cheshire snow]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ie/dublin/207931/daily-weather-forecast/207931?day=45

snow forecast with winds could be blizzards 

 

Same for Manchester only problem is Temp 9c

 

C.S

[Conor Sherwin]

I think i'll take that as unofficial then ( thermometer and on his van)

i was on skype to him and thats wat it said 

[Conor Sherwin]

Same for Manchester only problem is Temp 9c

 

C.S

it says 7 not 9

[swfc]

Hi conor.you may find varying degres of sarcasm on here but it is well meant !lol.try and stick to the model output in the winter and the various sections in regard to learning.I did and its a huge help in understanding the complex and complicated weather.has winter approaces it may safe your sanity and avoid hair loss ! Enjoy pal

[NorthernRab]

IT WAS -23 IN PARTS OF N IRE 

 

Deviation of a few degrees from the recorded low in any given area is certainly quite likely, we only have so many weather stations, especially in the areas where the potential for record minima is greatest. For example, there's many anecdotal and unofficial reports of -30'C being recorded in parts of the Highlands, especially Badenoch, yet there are only a few weather stations in this area. 

 

However, an 8'C plunge from the norm, while by no means impossible, is very rare - your father must've been freezing! 

[syed2878]

james madden always forecasting a siberian winter for the u.k. We r now in october and as we go thru this month we should have a bit mor infoe on how this winter's going to playout. To lot the new comers i would say keep an eye out for chio's strat thread for 2013-2014 which should be starting this month, again this will give us a better signal regarding this winter and also the snow and ice thread to c how's the october snow cover coming along.

[Mark Neal.]

Just waiting for the first daily express headline reading coldest winter in *insert large number of years here* to be had thanks to Mr madden.  

[feb1991blizzard]

CFS 9 month 6z 1st Oct run is almost a permanent Bartlett - the worst run I have ever seen - re run of the 1989 winter all over again.

[Methuselah]

One week, it's a Bartlett; the next, it's Snowmageddon...if I've been reading things (as in the CFS) correctly?

[sebastiaan1973]

Why so much interest in CFS? UKMO doesn't use them in their long term forecast.

[Summer Sun]

CFS this morning its going for a mild and wet winter this morning

 

 

 

 

[UV-RAY]

Why so much interest in CFS? UKMO doesn't use them in their long term forecast.

Unfortunately they use the GLOSEA model which has been very poor, although that to is going for heights over Greenland.

[feb1991blizzard]

Why so much interest in CFS? UKMO doesn't use them in their long term forecast.

 

Yes but whilst Madden is useless compared to the UKMO, the UKMO are not exactly up to Stewart Rampling and Netweathers standards over the last few years, I was just pointing out that after a few good runs its flipped back, lets hope that's not for good and was just one rogue run.

[UV-RAY]

CFS this morning its going for a mild and wet winter this morning

 

 

 

 

Yep the milder options are still showing as you would expect! but until they star showing more frequently I'll ignore them. Off course the milder option may well be the correct outcome.

[Dancerwithwings]

CFS this morning its going for a mild and wet winter this morning.

Until tomorrow

[feb1991blizzard]

CFS this morning its going for a mild and wet winter this morning

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is that your second choice though Gavin? I know you hate bitter cold and snow, what would you rather have if you had the choice between mild wet weather and frosty nights but dry and sunny because from what I gather in the summer forums, you are not a big fan of wet weather either.

Edited October 2, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

Is that your second choice though Gavin? I know you hate bitter cold and snow, what would you rather have if you had the choice between mild wet weather and frosty nights but dry and sunny because from what I gather in the summer forums, you are not a big fan of wet weather either.

 

After this dry summer and start to Autumn we may be in need of rain if so winter is the perfect time for it as the ground can soak it up better

Weather onlines seasonal outlook which covers December

 

Changeable November

Unsettled December

Issued: Tuesday 1st October 2013

Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*November*

 

November is a month which, at the present time, looks set to be dominated by high pressure during it's first half. The tendency will be for the high to be to the north of the country,with lower pressure to the south. A dry and frosty start, with the risk of mist and fog being widespread. In fog daytime temperatures will be cold, but feeling nearer normal where the sun comes through. Southern areas will always be at risk of rain, although the risk of rain increases as the month progresses. Sometime after the 10th may see the breakdown begin. It may be that later in the month that the rain turns more persistent from the south, and then all areas going into a more unsettled period. Be aware of the risk of sleet and possibly snow as the break occurs. It is likely that milder weather returns fairly quickly as the breakdown starts, with sleet and snow short lived.

*December*

There is much discrepancy between forecast models at this time. However, we currently lean into the idea of December being unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds at times. There is evidence merging of the westerly flow across the Atlantic being stronger than normal, leading to an enhanced jet stream. This would lead to more precipitation than usual, perhaps 150 to 180% of normal rainfall. Temperatures would likely be around normal, and there is the risk of some snow at times, especially through Ireland and Scotland, as well as northern England.

Captain Bob & Simon Keeling

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20131001

[feb1991blizzard]

After this dry summer and start to Autumn we may be in need of rain if so winter is the perfect time for it as the ground can soak it up better

Weather onlines seasonal outlook which covers December

 

Changeable November

Unsettled December

Issued: Tuesday 1st October 2013

Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*November*

 

November is a month which, at the present time, looks set to be dominated by high pressure during it's first half. The tendency will be for the high to be to the north of the country,with lower pressure to the south. A dry and frosty start, with the risk of mist and fog being widespread. In fog daytime temperatures will be cold, but feeling nearer normal where the sun comes through. Southern areas will always be at risk of rain, although the risk of rain increases as the month progresses. Sometime after the 10th may see the breakdown begin. It may be that later in the month that the rain turns more persistent from the south, and then all areas going into a more unsettled period. Be aware of the risk of sleet and possibly snow as the break occurs. It is likely that milder weather returns fairly quickly as the breakdown starts, with sleet and snow short lived.

*December*

There is much discrepancy between forecast models at this time. However, we currently lean into the idea of December being unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds at times. There is evidence merging of the westerly flow across the Atlantic being stronger than normal, leading to an enhanced jet stream. This would lead to more precipitation than usual, perhaps 150 to 180% of normal rainfall. Temperatures would likely be around normal, and there is the risk of some snow at times, especially through Ireland and Scotland, as well as northern England.

Captain Bob & Simon Keeling

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20131001

 

 

Yes - Ive just seen it on the Autumn thread, cheers.

[Tim Bland]

I can't help but feel that long range forecasters will consider what they want out of it before making their forecast.  What I mean by this is ; If I wanted to produce as near accurate forecast as possible I would go for zonal with some snow in Scotland and occasionaly to more southern parts.  If I wanted to grab headlines I would do a Madden and say "Cripling blizzards from November to March"  Truth is the weather will always catch us out and there could be little or no snow this winter south of scotland or we could have a a severe one.  Its fun speculating though!

[cheshire snow]

it says 7 not 9

 

 Conor

 

 apoligies if my post came over as been sarcastic 

 

Trust me though take them extended forecasts with a huge pinch of salt

 

C.S

[Dancerwithwings]

Weather onlines seasonal outlook which covered December  2012,

 

Seasonal outlook - September 30, 2012

 

November chill?

Here it looks as if pressure will be rising a large anticyclone setting over the UK to provide the whole country with a dry, chilly and fine spell of weather through to mid-month,

overnight frosts, fog and misty inland where skies clear.

 

December stays cool.

Colder conditions already established across the country during the latter stages will linger through the early part of December, the whole UK covered by a northerly flow

which will bring a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers, overnight frosts will be widespread.

Around mid-month pressure should begin to rise both to the east and west, the whole pattern becoming much more settled and colder as an anticyclone sits over the UK,

 

And what became;

 

November 2012

Cool but Widespread flooding

Temps' (CET) of 6.6°C was 0.6 degC below.

 

December 2012
Cold sunny start; mild and wet later

Temps'(CET) of 4.8°C was 0.1 degC above

 

Looking at last years forecast nothing much to worry about

Edited October 2, 2013 by Dancerwithwings