Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[P-M]

What ever Madden says the opposite tends to happen

 

Lets go back to 2011 / 12 he went for a brutal UK winter in the end it was the mildest for 3 years

 

http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/forecaster-predicts-brutal-uk-winter-weather-for-2011-2012/

 

And last winter he unsurprisingly went for another cold winter "Coldest winter in 100 years on way" - In the end it was just 0.4c below average

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/358717/Coldest-winter-in-100-years-on-way

 

And people wonder why he gets so much stick well what do you expect

 

 

Regardless though winters and snow "events" have become more frequent over the past few years - from the early 00's and the 90's where we hardly seen any (bar the odd severe winter in the 90's) the winters have become colder to a point or at least the snow events have increased.

Regardless though winters and snow "events" have become more frequent over the past few years - from the early 00's and the 90's where we hardly seen any (bar the odd severe winter in the 90's) the winters have become colder to a point or at least the snow events have increased.

 

 

I have seen heavy snow every year since 2009 so something is afoot I think - although not hung up an an ice age scenario 

[Yarmy]

Ah, I see Madden has spoken. Seriously, what are the chances of that forecast happening: 1 in a thousand?

 

But there will always be money in telling people what they want to hear. 

[Summer Sun]

Last week Gavin P said CFS was backing off from its northern blocking and it certainly is I've been keeping an eye on it since his video the main place for high pressure to develop now seems to be to our east and or north east with it drifting over the UK at times this at the moment is December and February

 

 

A closer look shows high pressure drifting over from the east and covering most of the UK, with average to above average temperatures and low rainfall

 

 

January shows it turning slightly cooler with the blocking high to our east going

 

 

A closer look shows an unsettled flow developing rainfall is mixed along with temperatures which is average to slightly below

 

 

February sees the blocking high to our east re-developing

 

 

A closer look shows the high just drifting over towards the UK enough to block any low pressure systems getting in keeping rainfall very low and temperatures widely average to above

 

 

I will continue to stick to my thoughts of a fairly average UK winter for temperatures with nothing like 2010 it will probably be more inline with 2011 / 12

Edited September 26, 2013 by Summer Sun

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What makes the CFS any more right or wrong now?  Keep us posted though SS.

Here's another one for the pot.

Anyone heard of Ulric LYONS?  Very specific in his forecast touting frigid cold to set in January 7th with no notable warm up until last week of February. 

Quote ''this is a solar based forecased produced from entirely heliocentric planetary angular analysis''

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited September 26, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Captain Shortwave]

Ah, I see Madden has spoken. Seriously, what are the chances of that forecast happening: 1 in a thousand?

 

But there will always be money in telling people what they want to hear. 

You are being optimistic there with your 1:1000 odds 

I think I might have to start digging for winter trends now as the first half of October looks likely to bore me to tears.

Edited September 26, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

What makes the CFS any more right or wrong now?  Keep us posted though SS.

Here's another one for the pot.

Anyone heard of Ulric LYONS?  Very specific in his forecast touting frigid cold to set in January 7th with no notable warm up until last week of February. 

Quote ''this is a solar based forecased produced from entirely heliocentric planetary angular analysis''

 

 

 

BFTP

 

Nothing makes it any more right or wrong it could easily flip back to its extensive blocking over Greenland its just something to keep an eye on over the 6 weeks or so

[UV-RAY]

Last week Gavin P said CFS was backing off from its northern blocking and it certainly is I've been keeping an eye on it since his video the main place for high pressure to develop now seems to be to our east and or north east with it drifting over the UK at times this at the moment is December and February

 

 

A closer look shows high pressure drifting over from the east and covering most of the UK, with average to above average temperatures and low rainfall

 

 

January shows it turning slightly cooler with the blocking high to our east going

 

 

A closer look shows an unsettled flow developing rainfall is mixed along with temperatures which is average to slightly below

 

 

February sees the blocking high to our east re-developing

 

 

A closer look shows the high just drifting over towards the UK enough to block any low pressure systems getting in keeping rainfall very low and temperatures widely average to above

 

 

I will continue to stick to my thoughts of a fairly average UK winter for temperatures with nothing like 2010 it will probably be more inline with 2011 / 12

Those charts would give us below average temps Gavin for much of the time, though milder the further west you are.

[Nights King]

If madden gets it wrong then he will have one heck of a job thinking up excuses,even I who love snow think this forecast is way over the top.

 

I know we shouldn't criticise but what ever happened to an average or slightly colder or milder than average winter which is what we expect most years one way or the other.

 

My Punt at a seasonal forecast is as follows -

 

December - close to average temperatures with rainfall around normal along with a couple of snow events predominantly for hills and mountains of England and wales but not exclusively.

 

January - slightly colder than average with a couple of widespread snow events for lowland England with Kent being badly affected, then few frosty days with -18c possible in Scotland and -15c in wales but no ice floes this year so feel free to get your canoe's out.

 

February - Milder than average after a Chilly first week with a couple of snow events before it becomes mild for the last half with higher than average rainfall in some western areas.

 

Please save this I'd like to know if it is worth me selling one next year .

Edited September 26, 2013 by mullender83

[UV-RAY]

Nothing makes it any more right or wrong it could easily flip back to its extensive blocking over Greenland its just something to keep an eye on over the 6 weeks or so

Yep indeed, one note of concern  from a coldies perspective is that last year the CFS and the GLOSEA model were going for cold until October then it slowly erased the cold from the UK as we approached winter. So this could be a new trend and one to watch.

Edited September 26, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Rollo]

I know we shouldn't criticise but what ever happened to an average or slightly colder or milder than average winter which is what we expect most years one way or the other. My Punt at a seasonal forecast is as follows - December - close to average temperatures with rainfall around normal along with a couple of snow events predominantly for hills and mountains of England and wales but not exclusively. January - slightly colder than average with a couple of widespread snow events for lowland England with Kent being badly affected, then few frosty days with -18c possible in Scotland and -15c in wales but no ice floes this year so feel free to get your canoe's out.  Highly likely to be more accurate than Maddens in fact 88-1 odds,but isn't it fun speculating.February - Milder than average after a Chilly first week with a couple of snow events before it becomes mild for the last half with higher than average rainfall in some western areas. Please save this I'd like to know if it is worth me selling one next year .

[Summer Sun]

I know we shouldn't criticise but what ever happened to an average or slightly colder or milder than average winter which is what we expect most years one way or the other.

 

My Punt at a seasonal forecast is as follows -

 

December - close to average temperatures with rainfall around normal along with a couple of snow events predominantly for hills and mountains of England and wales but not exclusively.

 

January - slightly colder than average with a couple of widespread snow events for lowland England with Kent being badly affected, then few frosty days with -18c possible in Scotland and -15c in wales but no ice floes this year so feel free to get your canoe's out.

 

February - Milder than average after a Chilly first week with a couple of snow events before it becomes mild for the last half with higher than average rainfall in some western areas.

 

Please save this I'd like to know if it is worth me selling one next year .

 

Copy it into the seasonal forecast thread that way it won't get lost so quickly

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page-20#entry2794612

 

My forecast from the start of September is there - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2778785

[-uksnow-]

If were thinking in terms of trends, then surely the trend in the output for atlantic LP's to die a slow death against a block to the east/covering Britain is not a bad one to be entering the autumnal and winter period with.

 

As all models are currently showing this, and with BFTP's 'stuck in a rut' theory, i think this is one positive to go off. Think how many times in the winter of 12/13 the block was modelled to be bulldosed, only to come to the event date and the backtrack had changed the forecast to trough disruption giving numerous snow events across Britain. This for me is a good starting block.

[Mark Neal.]

Interesting and contrasting views on madden, after seeing his forecasts in recent years it has been over exaggerated and far from the truth most of the time. That said he's brave to do Long Range Forecast, though the thing that annoys me and probably people on here? He sells the story to the Press, I.E Daily Mail & Daily Express and is making money from it! 

[Paul]

Interesting and contrasting views on madden, after seeing his forecasts in recent years it has been over exaggerated and far from the truth most of the time. That said he's brave to do Long Range Forecast, though the thing that annoys me and probably people on here? He sells the story to the Press, I.E Daily Mail & Daily Express and is making money from it! 

 

He's not selling them to the media, he's giving them to them. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Interesting and contrasting views on madden, after seeing his forecasts in recent years it has been over exaggerated and far from the truth most of the time. That said he's brave to do Long Range Forecast, though the thing that annoys me and probably people on here? He sells the story to the Press, I.E Daily Mail & Daily Express and is making money from it! 

 

What is wrong with making money from it though!!  If you are criticising his forecast method, or lack of it then fine but the Met Office make loads of money commercially when they are supposed to be a government funded organisation.

 

RE - Paul's post, who the hell would pay for it privately then when you can get it in the Express, you don't even need to buy a copy, you can just read it and put it back!!!

 

Im sorry but if people are stupid enough to carry on paying, if his record is that bad then tough, its a commercial world, a fool and his money.......

Edited September 26, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Mark Neal.]

He's not selling them to the media, he's giving them to them. 

Yeah that's what i was trying to say, so he doesn't receieve any money from them?

 

 Problem is FEB91Blizzard people aren't going to stop buying these papers just because weather stories printed are far from the truth. It was good to hear Netweather's own Michael Fish was in the express, more valid! 

Edited September 26, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yeah that's what i was trying to say, so he doesn't receieve any money from them?

 

 Problem is FEB91Blizzard people aren't going to stop buying these papers just because weather stories printed are far from the truth. It was good to hear Netweather's own Michael Fish was in the express, more valid! 

 

No I wont stop buying the express - nor the mail - there only 50p!!! but I wouldn't dream of subscribing to a James Madden forecast on the back of seeing the stories in those papers!

[Polar Maritime]

Just like the papers... Its the headlines that sell them. Madden is clearly in it for the money.

And he is also a lorry driver i think.

[Mark Neal.]

No I wont stop buying the express - nor the mail - there only 50p!!! but I wouldn't dream of subscribing to a James Madden forecast on the back of seeing the stories in those papers!

Have to agree! I can't imagine many subscribe to his forecasts if premium from reading his views in the paper.

[Jaffusmaximus]

How do people feel about Big Joe Bastartdi? As far as I know he has been touting 2013 onward as the Day after Tomorrow stuff 

 

And also last year 2012 Piers Corbyn did seem to try an moderate peoples exceptions of a freezing winter on twitter!

Edited September 26, 2013 by Jaffusmaximus

[Summer Sun]

How do people feel about Big Joe laminate floori? As far as I know he has been touting 2013 onward as the Day after Tomorrow stuff 

 

And also last year 2012 Piers Corbyn did seem to try an moderate peoples exceptions of a freezing winter on twitter!

 

To be fair big Joe like Mr Madden says the same every year

[Nights King]

To be fair big Joe like Mr Madden says the same every year

 

Big Joe though has my respect as he has science and reasoning behind his forecasts and he is qualified...

 

He has not mentioned ice floes yet though

Edited September 26, 2013 by mullender83

[Tim Bland]

For at least the last 5 years Madden has been putting out exactly the same forecast for winter which reads something like "severe cripling snow events over some parts of the North, East, South and West. Most likely to occour sometime between 1st and 30th of the month"

 

To be frank a 5 year old could write these forecats. I wouldn't pay 10p for one of his forecats and it beggers belief that people pay to subscribe to his dribble.  Sorry of this is harsh but it realy gets my back up that he gets away with it year in year out. People who produce proffesional forecasts should be accountable for the results. His results are dire and in any other business he would be sacked!  Re Joe B; he is a qualified meterologist. He's obviously a coldie at heart so his forecast are a bit biased towards cold and snow but he is usualy fairly accurate IMO

[Don]

Yep indeed, one note of concern  from a coldies perspective is that last year the CFS and the GLOSEA model were going for cold until October then it slowly erased the cold from the UK as we approached winter. So this could be a new trend and one to watch.

 

I agree it's a bit of a concern that the CFS has backed away from its holy grail charts but last Winter was still colder than average overall and there's still time for it to flip back as others have said.

[Methuselah]

I agree it's a bit of a concern that the CFS has backed away from its holy grail charts but last Winter was still colder than average overall and there's still time for it to flip back as others have said.

Tbh, I'm not at all concerned by what the CFS is currently predicting, for some 3 months' down the line...What will be will be; models won't change it...