Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[kev2281]

Well, that Exacta Weather forecast would be cracking for us coldies, not too cracking for the gas bill however

Still, a very long way off as yet

[bryan629]

Well, that Exacta Weather forecast would be cracking for us coldies, not too cracking for the gas bill however

Still, a very long way off as yet

 

 

Well, that Exacta Weather forecast would be cracking for us coldies, not too cracking for the gas bill however

Still, a very long way off as yet

thats true kev, i nearly spat my tea out when i was reading it...and wondered if madden had struck again

i think a review of this next march might be in order as well to see how it performs . it sounds too good to be true and usually is , but if it verified or came close then  

[johnholmes]

 

here is the extracted and abridged version of the Exacta Weather long range winter forecast. It looks good for cold and snow lovers. However, do bear in mind that this needs to be read with a pretty sizeable pinch of salt, as they have been wildly wrong previously... 

 

never a truer word spoken about predictions of such detail this far out and without a shred of evidence in the quote to explain their reasoning.

okay it is what cold lovers want to read but how much reality is there in this type of so called forecast?

[feb1991blizzard]

thats true kev, i nearly spat my tea out when i was reading it...and wondered if madden had struck again

i think a review of this next march might be in order as well to see how it performs . it sounds too good to be true and usually is , but if it verified or came close then  

 

It is Madden - ExactaWeather is his website I think!

[DOdo]

WSI expecting a mild start to winter for UK after a colder than normal November though there are significant risks of colder late winter temperatures, although confidence is still low at this early date

 

 

http://www.wsi.com/bdcafa6b-ad31-42cf-9b26-8c3bb7c77227/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.h

 

 

 

WSI change their forecast on regular base. I remember they initially were predicting a cold winter in 2011/2012 Then they changed it to amild winter.Madden was predicting an armaGeddon winter with blizzards 

Edited September 25, 2013 by DOdo

[Methuselah]

It is Madden - ExactaWeather is his website I think!

Maddening innit!

[feb1991blizzard]

Maddening innit!

 

Yes, I have to say no one has asked my opinions yet with regard to getting to work and even as a coldie I have to say on balance I am slightly pessimistic of just the start this year, I would go only very slightly with a more zonal start this year but would definitely urge on the side of caution on making any bold predictions for a good while yet.

[be cause]

Sounds like Exacta have taken the winter of 78/79 and turned it into a forecast .. worth a Tenner ? ..(or a tanner ?)

 

 

and with 60% more snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere now than this time last year , who knows ??

Edited September 25, 2013 by be cause

[bobbydog]

just to point out to those who are unaware- madden spouts the same old s*** every year.

 

even a stopped clock is right twice a day.......

[bryan629]

never a truer word spoken about predictions of such detail this far out and without a shred of evidence in the quote to explain their reasoning.

okay it is what cold lovers want to read but how much reality is there in this type of so called forecast?

 

Sounds like Exacta have taken the winter of 78/79 and turned it into a forecast .. worth a Tenner ? ..(or a tanner ?)

ill give you an a`pney ....i cant believe folk have to pay 25 quid for the pdf on that site...and as john pointed out not a shred of evidence behind reasoning,

After last march and our `extended` winter ( being the coldest march since 1962) i was secretly hoping for a coolish wet summer as in 1962 which ultimately led to a great winter of `63...of course it turned out to be a brilliant summer this year so i cant see the comming winter to be anything exceptional...hope im totally wrong though and my reasoning behind that is everywhere ive looked on the t`internet regarding the up comming winter is northern blocking being a major feature so fingers crossed

[feb1991blizzard]

ill give you an a`pney ....i cant believe folk have to pay 25 quid for the pdf on that site...and as john pointed out not a shred of evidence behind reasoning,

After last march and our `extended` winter ( being the coldest march since 1962) i was secretly hoping for a coolish wet summer as in 1962 which ultimately led to a great winter of `63...of course it turned out to be a brilliant summer this year so i cant see the comming winter to be anything exceptional...hope im totally wrong though and my reasoning behind that is everywhere ive looked on the t`internet regarding the up comming winter is northern blocking being a major feature so fingers crossed

 

Does he actually give reasoning and is it purely based on the solar activity?

[kev2281]

Does he actually give reasoning and is it purely based on the solar activity?

Lots of berries on the trees and bushes this year, apparently means a bad winter, winter 2013/2014 forecasting = sorted

[bryan629]

Does he actually give reasoning and is it purely based on the solar activity?

i dont know feb1991 there no explanations on his forecast whatsoever as to where he has based his assumptions/predictions

 

Failing that he`s been on the phone to `Ryan, the Dutch Weatherman `

Edited September 25, 2013 by bryan629

[bobbydog]

i dont know feb1991 there no explanations on his forecast whatsoever as to where he has based his assumptions/predictions

 

£9.99 ??.......

[Nights King]

 

here is the extracted and abridged version of the Exacta Weather long range winter forecast. It looks good for cold and snow lovers. However, do bear in mind that this needs to be read with a pretty sizeable pinch of salt, as they have been wildly wrong previously...

 

exactaweather said:

UK & N Ire Winter Weather Forecast 2013/14 + Major Snow Periods

December 2013

The first month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to see a very cold and snowy start to winter. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. The northern half of the country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the vast majority of the whole month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of north-east England. Parts of southern England, Wales, and the Midlands are also likely to

experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout December, especially in parts of southern England and Wales. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout the early part of the December period too.

December Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for most parts of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, and even more so throughout the Christmas period and into the early part of 2014. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -20C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime

at times too, but especially more so towards the start and end of the this forecasting period.

December Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow across many parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for some lengthy periods of time in December. The risk of snowfall will remain with much of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 23rd to the 31st December (Especially in northern, eastern and southern parts). A full and more detailed snow risk forecast will be issued to purchasers of this forecast later in the year (normally £10)

January 2014

The second month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to be exceptionally cold and very snowy. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country, and a scenario similar to December 2010 or worse is plausible. The vast majority of the whole country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the whole of the month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of southern England. Parts of

northern England, eastern England, Wales, western England, the Midlands, and Northern Ireland are also likely to experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout January. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption on a prolific scale to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout much of the January period too.

January Temperatures - Way below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures quite consistently during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. There may even be the possibility of temperature records being broken in places, especially in parts of Scotland and Ireland, towards the start of this forecasting period. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing across the country during the daytime too. There is also a good probability for the development of ice floes, which will be visible from land in various parts of the country too.

January Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some very heavy falls of snow across most parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for the vast majority of January. Snow drifts of several feet are also a distinct possibility for this part of the forecasting period. The risk of snowfall will remain with large parts of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 1st to the 15th January. A full and more detailed snow risk forecast will be issued to purchasers of this forecast later in the year (normally £10)

February 2014

The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with the cold and snowy theme. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. Many parts of the country are likely to experience a run of below average temperatures throughout the month and multiple major snow events, especially in parts of northern and southern England. It is likely that there will be disruption to the public transport network across these parts at times and school closures throughout the February period too. However, a number of brief periods of moderation can’t be ruled for this part of the forecasting period (normal winter conditions), especially in the latter part of this forecasting period.

February Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET), especially to the north of the country. Temperatures may also exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -18C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times too,

but not consistently due to a number of brief periods of moderation for this part of the forecasting period.

February Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some significant falls of snow across parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern and southern England. The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February in these parts.

 

 

I think whoever wrote that forgot where the UK actually sits geographically   I'm looking forward to these ice floes  

I think I should think about getting double glazing this winter

[bryan629]

I think whoever wrote that forgot where the UK actually sits geographically   I'm looking forward to these ice floes  

I think I should think about getting double glazing this winter

Good spot ....make it triple glazing, ive read the sea ice in the poles is expanding quite quickly now for the time of year , by the sounds of it madden thinks the uk is located somewhere in the Barents sea

[andy989]

I am really hoping against hope that we will have clear frosty nights with snow lying during this event late Nov in to early Dec. Would be magical!

 

 

http://earthsky.org/space/big-sun-diving-comet-ison-might-be-spectacular-in-2013

 

'Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) has been the most talked-about comet of 2013. When discovered in late 2012, it was said to have the potential to become a striking object visible to the eye alone around the time of its perihelion – or closest point to the sun – on November 28, 2013'

Would be amazing, I'm off to Lapland for a week in December too, northen lights and a comet hopefully 

[Dancerwithwings]

Would be amazing, I'm off to Lapland for a week in December too, northen lights and a comet hopefully 

Not sure where your staying but this might interest you http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77919-finland-traffic-cams/#entry2792812

[cyclonic happiness]

Now, now you lot! 

 

Give the bloody criticism a rest!

 

I'm amazed how quickly everyone jumps onto the bandwagon on this forum sometimes.

 

Maddden has made a forecast and no-one can say it's wrong until the end of the winter.

 

You may not like the bloke or agree with his methods, or that he charges for his forecasts, or that he's a charlatan,but just have some integrity.

 

I'd love to know the percentage of forecasts on here that were right last winter? Anyone got any stats?

[P-M]

I think whoever wrote that forgot where the UK actually sits geographically   I'm looking forward to these ice floes  

I think I should think about getting double glazing this winter

 

 

Saying that I think Maddens forecasts are way over the top every year, they're wrong and dont have any real scientific backing - but ice floes where seen apparently during the winter of 1947...  check full story here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1946%E2%80%9347_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

 

 Ice floes were also seen off the coast of East Anglia, causing a hazard to shipping.^[6]

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Now, now you lot! Give the bloody criticism a rest!I'm amazed how quickly everyone jumps onto the bandwagon on this forum sometimes.Maddden has made a forecast and no-one can say it's wrong until the end of the winter.You may not like the bloke or agree with his methods, or that he charges for his forecasts, or that he's a charlatan,but just have some integrity.I'd love to know the percentage of forecasts on here that were right last winter? Anyone got any stats?

Ouch !Harsh but true . I no that madden seems to say the same thing every year , but as Iv said recently , the last 5years or so bar 2011 has bought lots of disruptive snow and records have been broke regularly , be it 2009 London 18inches snow storm , 2010 nationwide freeze , dec 2010 coldest in 100yrs , feb 2011 saw record breaking cold just over the channel into Europe including France , then last march coldest in 50 years with the Channel Islands also seeing a seperate event that saw them get 40cm of snow . So has he actually been that bad? No . Granted he doesn't give scientific explanations for his forecasts , except solar counts, and I think if he did that he would be more respected .Just for fun . A few pictures from last year to wet the appetite Edited September 26, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Rollo]

I think whoever wrote that forgot where the UK actually sits geographically   I'm looking forward to these ice floes  :rofl:I think I should think about getting double glazing this winter

If madden gets it wrong then he will have one heck of a job thinking up excuses,even I who love snow think this forecast is way over the top.

[joggs]

Lots of berries on the trees and bushes this year, apparently means a bad winter, winter 2013/2014 forecasting = sorted

Your probably just as well using berries,birds and nature to make a statement about what to expect in a certain season rather than read and take gospel a lrf imo.The best forecast one could give thats going to be partly right for this winter is-it could be a drier,average or wetter winter with higher,average or lower than norm temps with a sunnier,average or cloudier season to prevail!.Well at least there's some truth in it lol.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

 

here is the extracted and abridged version of the Exacta Weather long range winter forecast. It looks good for cold and snow lovers. However, do bear in mind that this needs to be read with a pretty sizeable pinch of salt, as they have been wildly wrong previously...

 

exactaweather said:

UK & N Ire Winter Weather Forecast 2013/14 + Major Snow Periods

December 2013

The first month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to see a very cold and snowy start to winter. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. The northern half of the country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the vast majority of the whole month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of north-east England. Parts of southern England, Wales, and the Midlands are also likely to

experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout December, especially in parts of southern England and Wales. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout the early part of the December period too.

December Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for most parts of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, and even more so throughout the Christmas period and into the early part of 2014. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -20C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime

at times too, but especially more so towards the start and end of the this forecasting period.

December Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow across many parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for some lengthy periods of time in December. The risk of snowfall will remain with much of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 23rd to the 31st December (Especially in northern, eastern and southern parts). A full and more detailed snow risk forecast will be issued to purchasers of this forecast later in the year (normally £10)

January 2014

The second month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to be exceptionally cold and very snowy. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country, and a scenario similar to December 2010 or worse is plausible. The vast majority of the whole country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the whole of the month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of southern England. Parts of

northern England, eastern England, Wales, western England, the Midlands, and Northern Ireland are also likely to experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout January. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption on a prolific scale to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout much of the January period too.

January Temperatures - Way below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures quite consistently during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. There may even be the possibility of temperature records being broken in places, especially in parts of Scotland and Ireland, towards the start of this forecasting period. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing across the country during the daytime too. There is also a good probability for the development of ice floes, which will be visible from land in various parts of the country too.

January Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some very heavy falls of snow across most parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for the vast majority of January. Snow drifts of several feet are also a distinct possibility for this part of the forecasting period. The risk of snowfall will remain with large parts of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 1st to the 15th January. A full and more detailed snow risk forecast will be issued to purchasers of this forecast later in the year (normally £10)

February 2014

The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with the cold and snowy theme. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. Many parts of the country are likely to experience a run of below average temperatures throughout the month and multiple major snow events, especially in parts of northern and southern England. It is likely that there will be disruption to the public transport network across these parts at times and school closures throughout the February period too. However, a number of brief periods of moderation can’t be ruled for this part of the forecasting period (normal winter conditions), especially in the latter part of this forecasting period.

February Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET), especially to the north of the country. Temperatures may also exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -18C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times too,

but not consistently due to a number of brief periods of moderation for this part of the forecasting period.

February Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some significant falls of snow across parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern and southern England. The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February in these parts.

 

This reads like a carbon copy of the winter of 62/63. Sadly I am too young to have experienced this but my folks always bang on about it and how cold, long and harsh a winter it was. The old ''you have never experienced a winter until you have lived through a 62/63'' speech.  We used to have de-ice the inside of our windows etc!

 

I for one would love, in my lifetime, to experience just one winter like this so do hope Madden is right. However, like others have alluded to he does tend forecast the extreme cold side of things! One things for sure, other than GP he has to be one of the most talked about forecasters on this forum! Hats off to him for sticking his neck out there though and as ever, only time will tell whether we are set to experience such delights!  

[Summer Sun]

What ever Madden says the opposite tends to happen

 

Lets go back to 2011 / 12 he went for a brutal UK winter in the end it was the mildest for 3 years

 

http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/forecaster-predicts-brutal-uk-winter-weather-for-2011-2012/

 

And last winter he unsurprisingly went for another cold winter "Coldest winter in 100 years on way" - In the end it was just 0.4c below average

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/358717/Coldest-winter-in-100-years-on-way

 

And people wonder why he gets so much stick well what do you expect

Edited September 26, 2013 by Summer Sun