Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Summer Sun]

Found this lurking out in FI.  

 

 

A lovely cold shot   !!

 

And this morning we have this

 

 

Edited September 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Snowstorm1]

And this morning we have this

 

 

 

Spoil Sport

[Gavin Hannah]

Lol, we should keep a tally of how many times the chart flips for that particular date 

[Summer Sun]

Lol, we should keep a tally of how many times the chart flips for that particular date 

 

In 2 hours time it will probably have something completely different

[Gavin Hannah]

I reckon it was the 12Z that was always better for us coldies to look at was it not?  

[Fbb]

Found this lurking out in FI.  

 

 

A lovely cold shot :smilz38:  !!

Hi my first post on this forum and so far it makes very interesting reading.

The chart posted this morning, is that not a pressure chart and not a temprature chart?

e

[Summer Sun]

Hi my first post on this forum and so far it makes very interesting reading.The chart posted this morning, is that not a pressure chart and not a temperature chart?e

 

Hi and welcome to netweather

 

Its a pressure chart with the uppers

[Gavin Hannah]

Hi my first post on this forum and so far it makes very interesting reading.The chart posted this morning, is that not a pressure chart and not a temprature chart?e

 

Welcome to the mad house.

 

You are right, it is a pressure chart, but is also indicates the temperature gradients at the 850hp level.  Bascially, the bluer, the colder.  The dotted black lines indicate gradient increments/decrements in 5deg steps. 

[Methuselah]

Hi my first post on this forum and so far it makes very interesting reading.

The chart posted this morning, is that not a pressure chart and not a temprature chart?

e

Welcome, Fbb...Can you pop your location into your profile, please? 

[Fbb]

Welcome to the mad house. You are right, it is a pressure chart, but is also indicates the temperature gradients at the 850hp level.  Bascially, the bluer, the colder.  The dotted black lines indicate gradient increments/decrements in 5deg steps.

Thank you for clearing that up.My first day and already I feel more qualified than madden to give a realistic forcast

[weatherguy]

Thank you for clearing that up.My first day and already I feel more qualified than madden to give a realistic forcast

 

A good rule of thumb to use is that you need upper air temps to be -5C or lower in order to see any precipitation to fall as snow.  If you have dew points lower than 0C (essentially a "dryness" index of the air as I understand it), then you have a good chance of snow with upper air temps lower than 0C rather than -5C; low dew points tend to be brought in when we have an easterly

[Gavin Hannah]

And this morning we have this

 

 

 

 

Not quite back to where it was lol, but close....

[johnholmes]

Hi my first post on this forum and so far it makes very interesting reading.The chart posted this morning, is that not a pressure chart and not a temprature chart?e

 

hFbb

First welcome to Net Wx, have a good browse around, if you are unsure then ask as you have done, or take a look at the Guides area. Many questions you may think of are likely to be answered there.

As to the chart, yes the 'uppers' referred to are the 850mb temperatures, ( the values and colours are shown down the right hadn side) one of many ways of showing different things on the same chart. In this case linked to the surface isobars.

[Jaffusmaximus]

I am really hoping against hope that we will have clear frosty nights with snow lying during this event late Nov in to early Dec. Would be magical!

 

 

http://earthsky.org/space/big-sun-diving-comet-ison-might-be-spectacular-in-2013

 

'Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) has been the most talked-about comet of 2013. When discovered in late 2012, it was said to have the potential to become a striking object visible to the eye alone around the time of its perihelion – or closest point to the sun – on November 28, 2013'

[MR EXTREMES]

im a little worried about this winter to much azores heights involvement for my liking.

[Yarmy]

im a little worried about this winter to much azores heights involvement for my liking.

 

Good job it's currently the first month of Autumn then.

[Captain Shortwave]

Good job it's currently the first month of Autumn then.

If the warmth is here, it's one place around the world where it isn't and if that's Russia or Siberia then it's a good thing. 

[snowking]

im a little worried about this winter to much azores heights involvement for my liking.

The azores doesn't always have to be an enemy of cold-lovers:

 

 

And of course a few days later we saw some almost perfect retrogression:

 

 

And finally if anybody wants to look for specific SLP setups prior to a cold winter (despite their absolute zero correlation to subsequent winter patterns generally speaking) well it is still looking likely that as we head in to October 2013 high pressure may dominate once again....

 

 

That was the story for much of October 1962.

 

And if we skip forward once again to early December 1962:

 

 

See folks...even a near Bartlett scenario can morph into something pretty spectacular.

 

Surface patterns are by their very nature chaotic, and unfortunately bear very little resemblance to the following seasons (otherwise long range weather forecasting would be a lot easier than it is!)

 

However, it may just be that there are other signs that can lead us towards long range conclusions a little higher up in the atmosphere - I have been banging on since the spring about the signals for a high-pressure dominated month in October. We shall see!

 

SK

[Jax]

Thank you for clearing that up.My first day and already I feel more qualified than madden to give a realistic forcast

Hi and welcome

 

 

just to note, my cockatiel gives a better forecast than Madden...

[Yarmy]

If the warmth is here, it's one place around the world where it isn't and if that's Russia or Siberia then it's a good thing. 

 

Yep, and as a bonus it keeps those North Sea SSTs nice and elevated so that when the Beast arrives he can indulge in some serious convective naughtiness.

 

At least that's the plan.

[Methuselah]

Yep, and as a bonus it keeps those North Sea SSTs nice and elevated so that when the Beast arrives he can indulge in some serious convective naughtiness.

 

At least that's the plan.

A far better 'plan' than taking any notice of JM!

[Relativistic]

I am really hoping against hope that we will have clear frosty nights with snow lying during this event late Nov in to early Dec. Would be magical!

http://earthsky.org/space/big-sun-diving-comet-ison-might-be-spectacular-in-2013

'Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) has been the most talked-about comet of 2013. When discovered in late 2012, it was said to have the potential to become a striking object visible to the eye alone around the time of its perihelion – or closest point to the sun – on November 28, 2013'

Yes, unfortunately it might not live up to the hype.

[Summer Sun]

WSI expecting a mild start to winter for UK after a colder than normal November though there are significant risks of colder late winter temperatures, although confidence is still low at this early date

 

 

WSI: Mild October Followed by Colder Conditions across Mainland and the UK by November   

 

Mainland Europe to Remain Drier-than-Normal through Late Autumn with Wetter Conditions Returning by Early Winter

Andover, MA, 25 September 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures for the upcoming period (October-December) to be confined to parts of the central and eastern mainland, with above-normal temperatures elsewhere, especially parts of far eastern Europe and western Russia.

According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Claire Kennedy: “We expect the warm pattern to continue into October across much of Europe, especially in the Northeast. High pressure, which dominated western Europe during much of the summer, is expected to again move in from the Atlantic in October with below-average precipitation across much of northern and central Europe and above-average temperatures across northeastern Europe and northwestern Russia.

 

A transition to below-normal temperatures is forecast for the core of Europe including the UK in November, combined with below-normal precipitation amounts. An early look at indicators for the upcoming winter show conflicting signals at this stage with some key drivers still to emerge in October.

 

The latest climate and statistical models agree in a mild start to winter with a return to above normal temperatures again across much of Europe in December. It currently appears as though there are significant risks of colder late winter temperatures, although confidence is still low at this early date. Specific details on the winter forecast will be provided at the WSI Winter Symposium in London on 9 October.â€

In October, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In November, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal, except southern tip of Sweden
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except Iberia and southern Italy

In December, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Colder than normal, except extreme southern Sweden/Norway
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

 

 

 

http://www.wsi.com/bdcafa6b-ad31-42cf-9b26-8c3bb7c77227/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

Edited September 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Isolated Frost]

Doubting myself now WSI agrees!

badboy, you would have hated autumn 2009! Full of warm synoptics with SW/S winds and 18c in November... what happened next?

[bryan629]

WSI expecting a mild start to winter for UK after a colder than normal November though there are significant risks of colder late winter temperatures, although confidence is still low at this early date

 

 

http://www.wsi.com/bdcafa6b-ad31-42cf-9b26-8c3bb7c77227/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

 

 

here is the extracted and abridged version of the Exacta Weather long range winter forecast. It looks good for cold and snow lovers. However, do bear in mind that this needs to be read with a pretty sizeable pinch of salt, as they have been wildly wrong previously... 

exactaweather said:

UK & N Ire Winter Weather Forecast 2013/14 + Major Snow PeriodsDecember 2013The first month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to see a very cold and snowy start to winter. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. The northern half of the country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the vast majority of the whole month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of north-east England. Parts of southern England, Wales, and the Midlands are also likely toexperience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout December, especially in parts of southern England and Wales. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout the early part of the December period too.December Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for most parts of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, and even more so throughout the Christmas period and into the early part of 2014. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -20C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytimeat times too, but especially more so towards the start and end of the this forecasting period.December Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow across many parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for some lengthy periods of time in December. The risk of snowfall will remain with much of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 23rd to the 31st December (Especially in northern, eastern and southern parts). A full and more detailed snow risk forecast will be issued to purchasers of this forecast later in the year (normally £10)January 2014The second month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to be exceptionally cold and very snowy. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country, and a scenario similar to December 2010 or worse is plausible. The vast majority of the whole country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the whole of the month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of southern England. Parts ofnorthern England, eastern England, Wales, western England, the Midlands, and Northern Ireland are also likely to experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout January. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption on a prolific scale to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout much of the January period too.January Temperatures - Way below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures quite consistently during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. There may even be the possibility of temperature records being broken in places, especially in parts of Scotland and Ireland, towards the start of this forecasting period. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing across the country during the daytime too. There is also a good probability for the development of ice floes, which will be visible from land in various parts of the country too.January Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some very heavy falls of snow across most parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for the vast majority of January. Snow drifts of several feet are also a distinct possibility for this part of the forecasting period. The risk of snowfall will remain with large parts of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 1st to the 15th January. A full and more detailed snow risk forecast will be issued to purchasers of this forecast later in the year (normally £10)February 2014The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with the cold and snowy theme. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. Many parts of the country are likely to experience a run of below average temperatures throughout the month and multiple major snow events, especially in parts of northern and southern England. It is likely that there will be disruption to the public transport network across these parts at times and school closures throughout the February period too. However, a number of brief periods of moderation can’t be ruled for this part of the forecasting period (normal winter conditions), especially in the latter part of this forecasting period.February Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET), especially to the north of the country. Temperatures may also exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -18C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times too,but not consistently due to a number of brief periods of moderation for this part of the forecasting period.February Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some significant falls of snow across parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern and southern England. The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February in these parts.