Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

Latest from CFS with the exception of January its fairly mild

 

Average to slightly above average December

 

 

 

 

 

Cooler January

 

 

 

 

 

Milder February

 

 

 

 

looks like a mess to me don't look right to me at all

 

 

 

Dec looks coldest month on them, frost and fog dominant, would have thought below average England and Wales, average for Scotland and Ireland

[Isolated Frost]

CFS probably gives more incorrect data on these daily charts- don't see why they're dished out? More chance getting insight watching paint dry or grass grow.

[bobbydog]

 

"very mild today isn't it?"

 

"well, that's what the CFS says anyway"

[Methuselah]

 

"very mild today isn't it?"

 

"well, that's what the CFS says anyway"

Never realized James Madden has such a big garden...

[Summer Sun]

Netweathers long range NCEP maps continue to back an average to slightly above average December for England and wales

 

 

January and February show a mixed bag max of 1c below normal in parts of England and wales and up-to 2c below for western Scotland

 

A long way to March yet but its once again as per this March shown to be colder than the 3 winter months UK wide with an easterly flow across the country and high pressure across Spain, Portugal and extending up into France

 

[NorthernRab]

Dec looks coldest month on them, frost and fog dominant, would have thought below average England and Wales, average for Scotland and Ireland

 

With pressure anomalies that high, I would expect the weather to be dominated by fog, which for Scotland in December would likely mean freezing fog given the very little amount of daylight, so it would likely be cold for Scotland and perhaps Ireland too. 

[Weather-history]

Netweathers long range NCEP maps continue to back an average to slightly above average December for England and wales

 

That doesn't make much sense. Parts of western Scotland and Western Isles with a -1c anomaly but

parts of western Northern Ireland with a +1C anomaly.

[bobbydog]

its becoming mildly annoying........

[Skyraker]

Can you please refrain from posting daily CFS charts, it gives a poor guide to newcommers to the site.

 

Perhaps an average (weekly maybe) would have a more sound footing.

 

Futhermore, you're using the above charts to make conclusions that are at best innacurate.

 

Regards.

 

 

 

Latest from CFS with the exception of January its fairly mild

 

Average to slightly above average December

 

 

 

 

 

Cooler January

 

 

 

 

 

Milder February

 

 

 

 

Edited September 23, 2013 by Skyraker

[johnholmes]

Can you please refrain from posting daily CFS charts, it gives a poor guide to newcommers to the site.

 

Perhaps an average (weekly maybe) would have a more sound footing.

 

Futhermore, you're using the above charts to make conclusions that are at best innacurate.

 

Regards.

 

I tend to agree but why did you then repost all of the b things?

[AWD]

A long way to March yet but its once again as per this March shown to be colder than the 3 winter months UK wide with an easterly flow across the country and high pressure across Spain, Portugal and extending up into France

That would be low pressure across Europe as you won't get an easterly flow over the UK with high pressure/Euro high over mainland Europe would ya?!

[Skyraker]

I tend to agree but why did you then repost all of the b things?

I have a goldfish brain.. I thought they were new........ besides they were pretty.

Edited September 23, 2013 by Skyraker

[chionomaniac]

 

There is no correlation between arctic ice melt and winters in the NH, a loose connection at best but if comparing all of our severest winters bar December 2010 from the last 100 years then the correlation would be the more ice retention in summer then the  probability of a colder winter is higher. Of course with all things being equal the probability of a milder winter is just as high.

 

 

The recent figures though are interesting. If we look at recent below average Arctic ice years and above average Arctic years and compare the H500 anomalies then the winter differences are quite drastic. 

 

Years here:

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

 

Low sea Ice anomaly

 

 

 

High Sea Ice anomaly

 

 

 

 

No correlation? Not so sure.

[Dancerwithwings]

I tend to agree but why did you then repost all of the b things?

Maybe just a reference to newcomers that don't even know what the fuss is all about

[nick sussex]

When is the CFS going to be put out of its misery? An utter waste of resources which would be better spent elsewhere. In terms of hopes for the winter, well with my UK head on I think many of the cold/snow lovers would like to see more of those crystal clear sunny days and frosty nights rather than much of the grim constant cloudy conditions associated with the colder spells of last winter.

Although the UK did see some decent cold spells night time minima were too often moderated by the cloud and the crunchy snow brigade weren't happy!

For down here lots of sunshine would be welcome and the ski resorts will be happy to see a lot less snow and more sun, the ridiculous amounts of snow that fell were really not good with lots of avalanches, this then subsequently resulted in some awful flooding as the snow melt allied with warm rain led to severe flooding all along the Gave De Pau.

The will it or won't it proper easterly( sunshine and heavy snow showers rather than the dreary cloudy stuff with snow grains) question will probably be the subject of much debate, the five star weather heaven for cold and snow lovers especially in the east has been incredibly difficult to find in recent years.

Edited September 23, 2013 by nick sussex

[Gael_Force]

The recent figures though are interesting. If we look at recent below average Arctic ice years and above average Arctic years and compare the H500 anomalies then the winter differences are quite drastic. 

 

Years here:

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

 

Low sea Ice anomaly

 

Low sea ice Dec-Feb.png

 

 

High Sea Ice anomaly

 

 

High sea ice Dec - Feb.png

 

 

No correlation? Not so sure.

 

I don't know if this is the same Cohen as the one who does the Siberian snow cover forecasts - this guys newest paper points to a strong link between low ice extent and severe winters.

 

This from the early online release of the paper.

 

"This research shows for the first time how both sea ice melt and rapid snow advance are related to more severe winter weather," Judah Cohen, Ph.D. principal scientist and director of seasonal forecasting at AER, who is lead author of the study. "The results suggest that record sea ice melt last autumn contributed to the individual extreme weather events of last winter. Using a statistical rather than dynamical model, we established the relationship between declining sea ice, more extensive snow cover in northern Eurasia, and a weakened polar vortex, which allows cold air normally confined to the northern latitudes to spread southward."

 

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aer-scientists-uncover-link-between-declining-arctic-sea-ice-and-colder-winters-2013-09-12

[chionomaniac]

I don't know if this is the same Cohen as the one who does the Siberian snow cover forecasts - this guys newest paper points to a strong link between low ice extent and severe winters.

 

This from the early online release of the paper.

 

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aer-scientists-uncover-link-between-declining-arctic-sea-ice-and-colder-winters-2013-09-12

It is 

 

Full paper here : http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

 

I think that I mentioned it a week or so back after Sebastiaan linked to it, thanks for the reminder.

[Tamara]

When is the CFS going to be put out of its misery? An utter waste of resources which would be better spent elsewhere. In terms of hopes for the winter, well with my UK head on I think many of the cold/snow lovers would like to see more of those crystal clear sunny days and frosty nights rather than much of the grim constant cloudy conditions associated with the colder spells of last winter.

Although the UK did see some decent cold spells night time minima were too often moderated by the cloud and the crunchy snow brigade weren't happy!

For down here lots of sunshine would be welcome and the ski resorts will be happy to see a lot less snow and more sun, the ridiculous amounts of snow that fell were really not good with lots of avalanches, this then subsequently resulted in some awful flooding as the snow melt allied with warm rain led to severe flooding all along the Gave De Pau.

The will it or won't it proper easterly( sunshine and heavy snow showers rather than the dreary cloudy stuff with snow grains) question will probably be the subject of much debate, the five star weather heaven for cold and snow lovers especially in the east has been incredibly difficult to find in recent years.

Hi nick  If the choice comes down to a dull, cloudy, dry and cold easterly with 3C or a dull, low cloud, drizzly gale force south westerly for weeks at a time with 13C then I don't need to think for a split second which I infinitely prefer   I think this sums up just how much expectations have changed with the colder winters of recent years

[Gavin Hannah]

The Sea Ice is back up over 5m Km Sq,  http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

 

Compared to last year we are miles ahead. But what is also interesting to note, is the healthy amount of snow starting to build up over Russia.

Over in Snow and Ice thread, a member posted some Sat Maps showing a similar Ice/Snow cover for this time of year for 2010 and 2013.  If you're in to omens then hold on to your hats!

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The Sea Ice is back up over 5m Km Sq,  http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

 

Compared to last year we are miles ahead. But what is also interesting to note, is the healthy amount of snow starting to build up over Russia.

Over in Snow and Ice thread, a member posted some Sat Maps showing a similar Ice/Snow cover for this time of year for 2010 and 2013.  If you're in to omens then hold on to your hats!

 

If anything over the next week or so it's going to get even colder over Russia and Siberia, so we should see the snow cover build nicely

[Gaz1985]

If anything over the next week or so it's going to get even colder over Russia and Siberia, so we should see the snow cover build nicely

 

Not sure how common this is at this time of year but the 7 day forecast for Ojmjakon drops to a max of -5c on Monday with a minimum of -15c

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/RU/Ojmjakon.html

[UV-RAY]

The recent figures though are interesting. If we look at recent below average Arctic ice years and above average Arctic years and compare the H500 anomalies then the winter differences are quite drastic. 

 

Years here:

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

 

Low sea Ice anomaly

 

Low sea ice Dec-Feb.png

 

 

High Sea Ice anomaly

 

 

High sea ice Dec - Feb.png

 

 

No correlation? Not so sure.

Thats why I said there was a loose connection, but if we look at past ice conditions in the arctic then any correlation between ice retention and a cold winter in the NH is pretty poor to say the least.

[UV-RAY]

When is the CFS going to be put out of its misery? An utter waste of resources which would be better spent elsewhere. In terms of hopes for the winter, well with my UK head on I think many of the cold/snow lovers would like to see more of those crystal clear sunny days and frosty nights rather than much of the grim constant cloudy conditions associated with the colder spells of last winter.Although the UK did see some decent cold spells night time minima were too often moderated by the cloud and the crunchy snow brigade weren't happy!For down here lots of sunshine would be welcome and the ski resorts will be happy to see a lot less snow and more sun, the ridiculous amounts of snow that fell were really not good with lots of avalanches, this then subsequently resulted in some awful flooding as the snow melt allied with warm rain led to severe flooding all along the Gave De Pau.The will it or won't it proper easterly( sunshine and heavy snow showers rather than the dreary cloudy stuff with snow grains) question will probably be the subject of much debate, the five star weather heaven for cold and snow lovers especially in the east has been incredibly difficult to find in recent years.

Lol, your starting to sound like me with regards to those pitiful easterlies we endure 90% of the time Nick, I'm still waiting for my 78/79 winter to revisit us in the UK maybe this winter will be the one.

[Gavin Hannah]

Not sure how common this is at this time of year but the 7 day forecast for Ojmjakon drops to a max of -5c on Monday with a minimum of -15c

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/RU/Ojmjakon.html

 

 

Not sure. Hopefully Scandi gets in on the action soon. The Ice Hotel will be getting built soon. 

[andy989]

Hey all, I'm pretty new on here but I have been a reader (lurker) for some time.  Thought I'd take take the next step and join in. Been interested in the weather ever since I was a child.  Whilst I do favour some weather types more than others, I enjoy all, bar days of uneventful dullness. I'm from the foot hills of the Snowdon mountain range in North Wales and in January of this year I experienced  more snow than I ever thought I would. Whilst some parts of the UK experienced marginal events, here in North Wales we had a blizzard that lasted nearly 18 hours. Here is a short video I created as documentation of the event.

I know many of you have probably seen more snow than what is in the video, but it is certainly the most that this area has seen during the 24 years of my life. However December of 2010 was the coldest with -12 recorded on the garden thermometer.  Video production is my line of work so any exciting weather events this winter I shall record and share with you here!

Looking forward to this winter's  "cold chase". Enough about me, to the topic at hand

It seems that France is coming out with some pretty sensationalist headlines... 

Europe will see the coldest winter in 100 years   

Is madden working for the french now? >.<

A friend of mine from France posted this on facebook, the page is French but google chrome will give you an option to translate the page into english.

http://www.eddenya.com/index.php/sante-et-sciences/3176-l-europe-connaitra-l-hiver-le-plus-froid-depuis-100-ans