Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[BornFromTheVoid]

Interesting conversation on twitter earlier this evening

 

https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/381488730592141312/photo/1

 

Interesting. I presume they meant based on the August QBO anomaly (rather than September), in which case they left out the winter of 80/81 (August QBO of 9.61 in 1980), which makes it look a little different, but still pretty good

 

With 80/81

 

 

Without 80/81

[Buriedundersnow]

for this up and coming winter i'll take my user name for the whole uk top to bottom for the whole winter period and stretching into spring

[Dancerwithwings]

for this up and coming winter i'll take my user name for the whole uk top to bottom for the whole winter period and stretching into spring

I better change mine then to (liveinhope)

[Gael_Force]

The blog post to which the reanalysis applies.   http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/2013/09/qbo-invesigation.html

 

Certain similarities with the Z500 from the GloSea model which is shown on the previous page.

 

 

Seems to be a common theme among models for this winter, strong northern blocking, a deep Mediterranean trough and a split US with warm west and cold east.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yep it was magical. Had Christmas down at a country pub a few miles away and the snow was thicker there. Was lovely....snowy and festive all around.

Aaron

Got to say...I love the sense of still wanting that 'idyllic' Christmas set up.  I'm like a 7 yr old come Christmas

 

 

Now back to what I was going to post, as we enter and go through autumn I am certainly liking the northern blocking readily setting up and jetstream being meridional and /or southerly tracking, and I look for the pattern of being in a 'rut'.  Steady as she goes

 

 

BFTP

for this up and coming winter i'll take my user name for the whole uk top to bottom for the whole winter period and stretching into spring

Except Carlisle...

 

BFTP

[Mark Parsons]

It will be interesting to see if we have a winter like 2011-12 with little blocking or snow following a warm period in autumn, although having said that I realise past weather is not necessarily a precursor to what lies ahead and we are, I think, in a world of extreme swings relating to weather patterns. It won't be the first time anomaly charts have been wrong though if they were, so I'm not hanging my laurels on them!

[Summer Sun]

From Matt Hugo on twitter

 

Temps over the stratosphere behaving as they should, cooling very near to average. Possible SSW late winter? Maybe.

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BUwBvrwCMAAiSl8.png:large

Edited September 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Gavin P has done his first Winter 13-14 seasonal model round-up video

 

He thinks CFS may be backing off at the moment

 

 

From the other place

 

Haven't got all that many this month, but what we have got seem's to be pointing to a cold winter - Though the CFS may be backing off at the moment to be honest.

Edited September 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I know we have had some of the best snowfalls in decades in the past 4/5 years, however, I really do remember this event exceptionally well, the night of the 30th January 2003 where a major westward shift of a cold front brought copious snow to the East of England that caught thousands of people out. Lincolnshire to North and West London Eastwards got battered. I guess it stuck out like a sore thumb back then though as we didn't see anything like that for years. 

My god I remember the strong N-NE wind pick up when I was out playing footy at primary school, then 20 minutes later as we got in class, the sky turned grey and down came some of the heaviest, most continuous snow I've certainly ever seen. The whole class came to a standstill and was just looking out at this raging blizzard! Then later that night, we lost power from about 10PM and did not get it back until 11AM the next morning. 

Anyone else got anything to share about this event?

 

P.S sorry its a bit off current topic mods

Edited September 22, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Summer Sun]

Every now and then CFS keeps showing February to be the coldest month of winter and thats what we have this afternoon

 

December

 

High pressure sets up to our NE keeping us settled, very dry and chilly especially in the south with low pressure across Greenland

 

 

 

 

 

 

January

 

Blocking extends from east to west in January setting up across Greenland with high pressure also extending up from Spain. With pressure staying high rainfall is no worse than average for some eastern parts with the west and more so south west remaining very dry

 

 

 

 

 

 

February

 

Now its February when we see northern blocking taking hold fully across Greenland as a result temperatures tumble rain fall (more like snow given the temps) is highest in the south and east and lowest in the west of Scotland and Ireland

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course non of this can be taken seriously yet however its not the first time February has been shown to be the coldest month of winter and potentially the snowiest

Edited September 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I know we have had some of the best snowfalls in decades in the past 4/5 years, however, I really do remember this event exceptionally well, the night of the 30th January 2003 where a major westward shift of a cold front brought copious snow to the East of England that caught thousands of people out. Lincolnshire to North and West London Eastwards got battered. I guess it stuck out like a sore thumb back then though as we didn't see anything like that for years. 

My god I remember the strong N-NE wind pick up when I was out playing footy at primary school, then 20 minutes later as we got in class, the sky turned grey and down came some of the heaviest, most continuous snow I've certainly ever seen. The whole class came to a standstill and was just looking out at this raging blizzard! Then later that night, we lost power from about 10PM and did not get it back until 11AM the next morning. 

Anyone else got anything to share about this event?

 

P.S sorry its a bit off current topic mods

 

This is a classic example of where we (in Nottingham) would miss out on all the action, so near and yet so far! I bet It would have been a great event to witness 

[Jaffusmaximus]

Hi all! 

 

Great reading here so early on in the cold hunting season. I am very aware it still very early days but could someone enlighten me to when will the CFS and other long Range models come into a more reliable time-frame and when will the usual LRF from notable contributors start rolling in?

 

From what I gather Northern Blocking seems to be the trend showing up on the long range models but when can I start taking them more serious?

 

Cheers! 

[hillbilly]

Hi all! 

 

Great reading here so early on in the cold hunting season. I am very aware it still very early days but could someone enlighten me to when will the CFS and other long Range models come into a more reliable time-frame and when will the usual LRF from notable contributors start rolling in?

 

From what I gather Northern Blocking seems to be the trend showing up on the long range models but when can I start taking them more serious?

 

Cheers! 

lots of beople bigging this winter up,it is all to do ,I hope so but may be a damp squib!!!

[Don]

I know we have had some of the best snowfalls in decades in the past 4/5 years, however, I really do remember this event exceptionally well, the night of the 30th January 2003 where a major westward shift of a cold front brought copious snow to the East of England that caught thousands of people out. Lincolnshire to North and West London Eastwards got battered. I guess it stuck out like a sore thumb back then though as we didn't see anything like that for years. 

My god I remember the strong N-NE wind pick up when I was out playing footy at primary school, then 20 minutes later as we got in class, the sky turned grey and down came some of the heaviest, most continuous snow I've certainly ever seen. The whole class came to a standstill and was just looking out at this raging blizzard! Then later that night, we lost power from about 10PM and did not get it back until 11AM the next morning. 

Anyone else got anything to share about this event?

 

P.S sorry its a bit off current topic mods

 

I got more snow than was forecast for a change!!

 

Woke up to a covering of slushy snow that morning.  However, 5 miles down the road there was nothing!  Had a heavy snow shower mid morning, but it wasn't until the afternoon when it really came down and snowed steadily and heavily until about 6pm.  I would say we had 2-3 inches in total, which was quite impressive at the time and only 3 weeks after the snowfall on the 8th January.

[Gavin Hannah]

 

From what I gather Northern Blocking seems to be the trend showing up on the long range models but when can I start taking them more serious?

 

Cheers! 

 

The night before the main event 

Last year saw a spectacular backtrack a week out from a forecast snow-mageddon event in December I think it was. So many toys thrown out around here (Myself included).

 

Trends are good to analyse, even this far out, but, I wouldn't take anything as 'nailed on', esp in winter, if it's more than a week out.

[Jaffusmaximus]

The night before the main event 

Last year saw a spectacular backtrack a week out from a forecast snow-mageddon event in December I think it was. So many toys thrown out around here (Myself included).

 

Trends are good to analyse, even this far out, but, I wouldn't take anything as 'nailed on', esp in winter, if it's more than a week out.

 

I only started getting into model watching and weather in general then and I remember well that expectant block and subsequent cold that was expected in Dec but as you say I remember the hissy fits more  ! 

 

This year I have been reading up on any scrap of info I can and my feeling is that all the ingredients are there to make this winter something special but I am not going to lose the run of myself like I did last year trying to convince people to invest in Snow Socks for their cars!!!!! I have a feeling that if the azores high plays ball anything is possible!

[Summer Sun]

Winter was full of marginal events last year so it was impossible at times to even forecast a day out as elevation made all the difference

 

CFS is just one part of the jigsaw for the UK this coming winter a lot will depend on what happens in the stratosphere

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The biggest snow party gate crasher has got to be the abores high. If we want a winter that is superior for its cold ferocity, then any ideas of the azores high need to be scrapped! It is the biggest aid for the mild jetstream to smash any blocks out of the way as it causes the jet to be diverted further North (exactly where we do not want it), and obstructs a Southerly tracking jetstream, which is what is needed for us to be on the 'cold side'. 

During the real potent cold winters such as 62/63 and Dec 2010, the Azores High is redundant. It really is a mortal enemy for cold and snow lovers!!

[Summer Sun]

The biggest snow party gate crasher has got to be the abores high. If we want a winter that is superior for its cold ferocity, then any ideas of the azores high need to be scrapped! It is the biggest aid for the mild jetstream to smash any blocks out of the way as it causes the jet to be diverted further North (exactly where we do not want it), and obstructs a Southerly tracking jetstream, which is what is needed for us to be on the 'cold side'. 

During the real potent cold winters such as 62/63 and Dec 2010, the Azores High is redundant. It really is a mortal enemy for cold and snow lovers!!

 

Yep the Azores high in winter is either a winter killer for cold fans or a winters dream for mild fans (like me)

 

 

The last Azores Christmas was 2011

 

 

Boxing day 2011 saw temperatures flying up 16.1°C was recorded at Banff (Aberdeenshire)

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Yep the Azores high in winter is either a winter killer for cold fans or a winters dream for mild fans (like me)

 

 

The last Azores Christmas was 2011

 

 

Boxing day 2011 saw temperatures flying up 16.1°C was recorded at Banff (Aberdeenshire)

 

Oh how I remember! It was balmy and felt as if we were in the Cote d'Azur or the Spanish costas for christmas rather than the UK! 

Look how things changed for Europe throughout mid to late January, they saw deadly cold and we just missed out by a hairs breadth and caught the tail end of it at the start of Feb. We should see some snow and cold at some point, how bad, long and extreme it will be are questions to be answered.

[Gavin Hannah]

The rate at which snow advances across the continent will have a big impact on the winter as has already been discussed. Ideally, we need Scandi to really turn white throughout the next 6 weeks. Last year saw alot of snow across Russia but Scandi was late to the party.

Edited September 22, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[cooling climate]

I posted in the Autumn thread in late August of my thoughts for the coming winter before

this winter thread was up and running.Basically I was quitely confident of a severe

winter for Europe and the uk (at least two winter months with a CET below 1c).

One month on and if anything I am even more confident of a 78-79 type winter but would

not be at all surprised to see something even colder than this.

Winter should certainly show its hand in November with more prolonged cold,and at times

bitterly cold weather from mid December on through into March with some breaks at times

before the northerly blocking re-establishes itself.

 

[Don]

Gavin P has done his first Winter 13-14 seasonal model round-up video

 

He thinks CFS may be backing off at the moment

 

 

 

Stupid CFS!!

 

Not looking too bad for a colder than average Winter at this very early stage though.  Hopefully the CFS will return to its original trend!

Edited September 22, 2013 by Don

[Captain Shortwave]

Would be interested to see whether the Polar vortex shows it's hand in the coming months or whether it will just remain stuck over the Pacific/Siberian side. ECM tonight is quite striking with Western Europe still in late summer/Early Autumn warmth whilst Russia and Scandinavia are already being becoming cold.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I posted in the Autumn thread in late August of my thoughts for the coming winter before

this winter thread was up and running.Basically I was quitely confident of a severe

winter for Europe and the uk (at least two winter months with a CET below 1c).

One month on and if anything I am even more confident of a 78-79 type winter but would

not be at all surprised to see something even colder than this.

Winter should certainly show its hand in November with more prolonged cold,and at times

bitterly cold weather from mid December on through into March with some breaks at times

before the northerly blocking re-establishes itself.

 

Any chance of an update with the graphics and data you had in the Autumn thread?