Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[johnholmes]

Just so I'm reading that right, the top analogue to today was the 6th October 1962, the next closest 6th October 2008, etc?

 

Is there any mileage in this analogue business (at this range)? I'm pretty sceptical: it would make LRFs a doddle,

 

very little if any, otherwise the main forecast centres would make much more use of them

[Summer Sun]

very little if any, otherwise the main forecast centres would make much more use of them

 

Sorry for the OT post but I see your website is closing on October 1st is this a permanent closure or are you moving to a new host?

[Weather Boy]

very little if any, otherwise the main forecast centres would make much more use of them

 

What's the difference between that and pattern matching?  If little or none, then presumably we are well aware of its shortcomings.

[syed2878]

hey guys is nw gona do a w2013-2014 forecast? Now gp's no longer with us.

[Mark Neal.]

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

EC seasonal highlighting a possible -ve AO pattern in Jan/Feb in particular, so perhaps any cold weather later on rather than early winter.

Edited September 18, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Summer Sun]

Also from Matt Hugo

 

Sep update of the EUROSIP model gives little idea for winter, but EC seasonal shows high pressure over or just to the W of the UK as an avg.

 

If high pressure is over or close by to the UK that would limit any significant cold snowy spells

 

Edited September 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[johnholmes]

Sorry for the OT post but I see your website is closing on October 1st is this a permanent closure or are you moving to a new host?

 

nope closure-its too much to keep up to date, well I have not really done that for 12 months or more, sad but old age takes over, I will of course keep my weather station and observations going.

What's the difference between that and pattern matching?  If little or none, then presumably we are well aware of its shortcomings.

 

not sure to be honest, best ask the professionals, but it is a fact they do not put much faith in them

[Summer Sun]

nope closure-its too much to keep up to date, well I have not really done that for 12 months or more, sad but old age takes over, I will of course keep my weather station and observations going.

 

Thanks for the reply

 

[Isolated Frost]

Also from Matt Hugo

 

Sep update of the EUROSIP model gives little idea for winter, but EC seasonal shows high pressure over or just to the W of the UK as an avg.

 

If high pressure is over or close by to the UK that would limit any significant cold snowy spells

 

Not really. Not only can one month have a significant anomalous result to that, or even one month being completely dominated by high pressure with the other two not so much.

High pressure to the west or just over the UK does indicate cooler than average conditions- which would in turn be more conductive for snowy/cold spells, more so than most options available.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not really. Not only can one month have a significant anomalous result to that, or even one month being completely dominated by high pressure with the other two not so much.

High pressure to the west or just over the UK does indicate cooler than average conditions- which would in turn be more conductive for snowy/cold spells, more so than most options available.

 

Agreed, I'd be much more concerned if HP to the south was indicated.

[Gaz1985]

 

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

EC seasonal highlighting a possible -ve AO pattern in Jan/Feb in particular, so perhaps any cold weather later on rather than early winter.

 

 

That's good news, if any snow falls in February it will melt quicker than December, a green Christmas anyone? 

Edited September 18, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Summer Sun]

Agreed, I'd be much more concerned if HP to the south was indicated.

 

If Azores high stayed close by as they really would limit the cold

 

What sort of conditions could we get with the high either over or just to the west of the UK?

 

I would imagine (if its over the UK) lots of overnight frosts if the sky is clear, ample sunshine during the day again if the sky is clear, but also an increased risk of persistent fog / mist in prone spots?

[Mark Neal.]

That's good news, if any snow falls in February it will melt quicker than December, a green Christmas anyone? 

Dont be the scrooge of netweather Gaz

 

 

 

Also from Matt Hugo

 

Sep update of the EUROSIP model gives little idea for winter, but EC seasonal shows high pressure over or just to the W of the UK as an avg.

 

If high pressure is over or close by to the UK that would limit any significant cold snowy spells

 

Infact i see it as encouraging we see Pressure to the West Of UK, blocked atlantic with Greenland High link up as what the EUROSIP Model is showing.. Much better than a high pressure to the South I.E Bartlett, Euro High. Yuck! 

[Summer Sun]

That's good news, if any snow falls in February it will melt quicker than December, a green Christmas anyone? 

 

I said in my thoughts at the start of this month December would be mild and that could well be the case.

 

The sun certainly helps the snow to melt quicker in February as its a lot higher than in December so it gets to work on more areas which were in shade during December

[Isolated Frost]

That's good news, if any snow falls in February it will melt quicker than December, a green Christmas anyone? 

Oh, you never know... February is on average colder than December, so the measly difference in sun angle will be compensated for.

[Gaz1985]

Oh, you never know... February is on average colder than December, so the measly difference in sun angle will be compensated for.

 

When was the last time we had a bitter cold February? probably 1986? it's been one of those months where it's been difficult to achieve, proper.  

[Summer Sun]

When was the last time we had a bitter cold February? probably 1986? it's been one of those months where it's been difficult to achieve, proper.  

 

Feb 2010 was 1.6°C below average

 

Significant snowfalls occurred widely at times from mid-December until the end of February. These included falls of over 20 cm in southern England in early January and over 30 cm in central and northern Scotland in late February.

[Gaz1985]

Feb 2010 was 1.6°C below average

 

Significant snowfalls occurred widely at times from mid-December until the end of February. These included falls of over 20 cm in southern England in early January and over 30 cm in central and northern Scotland in late February.

 

But it wasn't a sub zero CET month Gavin like December 2010 or February 1986.

[Summer Sun]

But it wasn't a sub zero CET month Gavin like December 2010 or February 1986.

 

Ah subzero its a long time since any winter month was subzero I think

 

December 2010 for all it was exceptionally cold still came in at 0.6°C

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ah subzero its a long time since any winter month was subzero I think

 

December 2010 for all it was exceptionally cold still came in at 0.6°C

 

December 2010 was -0.8C?

[Gaz1985]

Ah subzero its a long time since any winter month was subzero I think

 

December 2010 for all it was exceptionally cold still came in at 0.6°C

 

It was actually -0.7C and not 0.7C, it was almost -1.0C......December 2010 was still a subzero Winter month. http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/2010_weather.htm

 

"The first time the month's average CET (Central England Temperature) was beneath zero since 1986."

Edited September 18, 2013 by Gaz1985

[stewfox]

That's good news, if any snow falls in February it will melt quicker than December, a green Christmas anyone? 

 

Not if its colder it wont   

[UV-RAY]

Ah subzero its a long time since any winter month was subzero I think

 

December 2010 for all it was exceptionally cold still came in at 0.6°C

You mildies need to fatten up for winter, it's going to be a long hard cold one me thinks!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Gavin the mean temperature for the UK in Decemeber 2010 was -1C with -0.8C in the CET zone. As confirmed by this Metoffice link...

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/cold-dec

 

Only 5 colder months have been experienced in the last 100 years. No idea where you got your 0.6C from?

[UV-RAY]

Gavin the mean temperature for the UK in Decemeber 2010 was -1C with -0.8C in the CET zone. As confirmed by this Metoffice link...

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/cold-dec

 

Only 5 colder months have been experienced in the last 100 years. No idea where you got your 0.6C from?

I wonder if we can beat that this coming winter, January 2014 coldest winter month in 100 years perhaps?