Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Isolated Frost]

Nope- just more tabloid rubbish about the MetO, who have really impressed in recent years, and probably have the best forecasters in Europe.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Very brave of you to have a go at the met on here - good luck

As IF had said the majority of met forecasts are misinterpreted by the tabloids and sensationalised.

As for Madden he does just make it up as he goes along.

[John Badrick]

As soon as the MET O say we are going to have cool wet summers for the next 10 years the opposite happens we have the warmest summer in 6 years

Edited September 14, 2013 by John Badrick

[Yarmy]

did they predict a mild winter for 2009/10?...the BBQ summer quote comes from 2009 not 2010+...as far as im aware they no longer do seasonal forecasts?

 

They still do them, they just don't have a big PR release anymore. That the LRFs aren't very good is no great shame: no-one's are. We ought to be proud of having a world-leading meteorological service in this country, yet somehow...

Edited September 14, 2013 by Yarmy

[UV-RAY]

I rate the MetO highly when it comes to short term weather, but think our taxes are wasted on anything regarding climatic predictions. 

[bluearmy]

As soon as the MET O say we are going to have cool wet summers for the next 10 years the opposite happens we have the warmest summer in 6 years

Please link to the relevant met office statement re 10 years of cool wet summers.Also, madden is never right because he has failed to realise that over a period of several months, normal conditions are inevitable at some stage. He sensationalises everything ( for obvious reasons) .

[johnholmes]

Just watched Simon Keeling's video which shows off the JMA long range model, November and December look interesting

November - high pressure over the pole stretching down into the Atlantic, low pressure to the East, cold with north easterly winds dominating with good chance of wintry precipitation.

December - High pressure closer to the UK but still centred towards the north west, suggests a drier but still cold month.

 

Backs up the CFS

 

 

I raised doubts about this as did forecaster last evening. So I decided to e mail Simon and he has kindly sent this reply this morning.

 

Hi John,

 

No problem with the email.

 

Ah, the intention was not to say these were actual highs and lows, I do say every week that they are anomalies.

 

The inference that is possible to be made (where it can be when long range forecasting) is the positionj of any highs or lows relative to normal. The anomalies do, sort of, fit in with some other data that is available at the present time including the ECMWF seasonal. I probably revealed a little more info that is available just on the JMA.

 

Hope that helps,

Simon

 

To me 2+2=4 and in my view Simon made something considerably more in his video!

Anyway I will leave it for others to make their own mind up on the validity of the conclusions in the video.

Edited September 14, 2013 by johnholmes

[Methuselah]

I don't buy that at all, John...IMO, once you start relying on forecasts, that far out, much of your prediction must be guesswork? Which is precisely why I never bother with making LRFs... 

[Met4Cast]

What about the "respectable MET office" in my eyes they have made worse predictions Than James Madden, we seem to forget the terrible prediction of a mild winter of 2009/10, the BBQ Summers 2010+ and then when everything looks set for a cool wet summer of 2013+ for the next 10 years we have the warmest summer in 6 years. James Madden gets 1 winter forecast wrong......and people hate him.... I pay the met office through my hard earned cash through taxes.They get it so wrong but still people are not asking questions....this is so wrong!! Is it me? If James Madden gets it wrong everyone goes mental.You can choose to pay a couple of quid for his forecasts, we have no choice to pay for the MET office that everyone seem to agree with even when they get it so wrong. It is getting quite ridiculous, if the MET say it's going to be harsh winter I predict the warmest winter on record...ps I know the majority of this forum think JAmes Madden makes things up as he goes along and maybe he does, but what would you really go for this year a snowless winter like we should have in our ever warmer climate or a couple of decent Snow falls. (by the way my 5 year old daughter has seen more Snow than I did for a whole decade from the late 90s)

 

James Madden hasn't just got 1 forecast wrong, every single forecast he has made has been wrong. He constantly calls for "record breaking low temperatures" and goes for the extremes. He's often very vague. I remember a few years ago he predicted snow in Scotland for a winter month. Shockingly it did snow in Scotland during that particular month and he started bragging about how his forecast was spot on. 

 

He seems to have listed specific dates this year so that'll be interesting, but again if he does turn out to be right it'll be more out of luck than actual forecasting. Wasn't it just last year he based most of his forecast on the gulf stream weakening? The gulf stream simply hasn't weakened and even if it has, it'd take a lot longer than a few months to begin effecting our weather in that way. James Madden is nothing but a newspaper grabbing forecaster. He doesn't care about getting it right as long as he gets the attention and I suspect the money that he makes from it. The sad thing is that people actually take his forecasts seriously.

 

The Met Office did get long range forecasts wrong, I remember them getting a lot of stick about it too so they stopped making them (unfortunately). The difference is, the Met Office used actual science and method to their forecasts and didn't just go for the extreme for the sake of making headlines.

[Methuselah]

What about the "respectable MET office" in my eyes they have made worse predictions Than James Madden, we seem to forget the terrible prediction of a mild winter of 2009/10, the BBQ Summers 2010+ and then when everything looks set for a cool wet summer of 2013+ for the next 10 years we have the warmest summer in 6 years. James Madden gets 1 winter forecast wrong......and people hate him.... I pay the met office through my hard earned cash through taxes.They get it so wrong but still people are not asking questions....this is so wrong!! Is it me? If James Madden gets it wrong everyone goes mental.You can choose to pay a couple of quid for his forecasts, we have no choice to pay for the MET office that everyone seem to agree with even when they get it so wrong. It is getting quite ridiculous, if the MET say it's going to be harsh winter I predict the warmest winter on record...ps I know the majority of this forum think JAmes Madden makes things up as he goes along and maybe he does, but what would you really go for this year a snowless winter like we should have in our ever warmer climate or a couple of decent Snow falls. (by the way my 5 year old daughter has seen more Snow than I did for a whole decade from the late 90s)

Except that, in Madden's case, he does it every year, almost without fail!

[johnholmes]

I don't buy that at all, John...IMO, once you start relying on forecasts, that far out, much of your prediction must be guesswork? Which is precisely why I never bother with making LRFs... 

 

Obviously the further out from T+00 no matter how superb the computer technology the more it is going to be less accurate and more often. What I queried and still do is the interpretation of the charts he showed.

[Methuselah]

Obviously the further out from T+00 no matter how superb the computer technology the more it is going to be less accurate and more often. What I queried and still do is the interpretation of the charts he showed.

Which is, of itself, a very valid point: there are so many different ways of chart-interpretation that the mind boggles...

[chionomaniac]

SM's post in model thread from this am

 

 

 

Hi Chiono-

 

Missed this last night-

 

Yep I agree, I think there have been a few fundamental changes in the last 5 years associated with the feedbacks being generated from the low ice conditions-  I think theres 2 feedbacks-

 

* The thermal gradient weakness for autumn - in terms of increased polar blocking-

* Low base state of snow cover ( starting point ) in Sept with rapid increases in October / Nov - feeding into the AO base state.

 

Looking forward to Winter!

 

 

I am looking forward to winter too Steve.

 

I agree with the likelihood of the feedback from the above points to a more blocked pattern in winter. Certainly the H500 anomaly charts suggest that areas where the sea ice has decreased are more prevalent to autumnal height rises and these then can have a knock on effect immediately to the positive rates of snow gain to latitudes further south during October. Last year following Cohen's work we  could see that through stratospheric feedback we could forecast that we would see a change in NH pattern come January and this duly occurred. One wonders would this have been quite so dramatic without the preceding summer ice loss or would we have had another 90's style winter. I have created anomaly charts for above and below ice coverage and these are on my computer at home. I will hopefully be able to demonstrate the anomaly from normal with these - as it is there to see. ( GP did this last year prior to his winter forecast and I have gione back and checked these but there are a few years used in both anomalies and some that I wouldn't have included).

 

I think that this year we have to be careful with the interpretation of anomaly charts. I suspect that GP has been closer with the H500 anomaly rather than the surface pattern - this can be because a weak positive anomaly over Greenland for example does not necessarily lead to blocking - it can just lead to a reduced polar vortex in that region which may not have to much affect on the surface pattern experienced in the UK - rather than a Greenland block that some would automatically assume.

 

 

Looking forward I have been surprised to see that similar years with a west QBO under similar ENSO and solar conditions do have positive blocking anomalies and hopefully the same can be achieved this year. However, it is too early to try and predict this, we need to wait to see how rapid any NH snow gain is during October and stratospheric conditions in November. If these are favourable then the possibilities of seeing some white stuff fall out of the sky and settle this winter will be significantly increased.

 And to reinforce this - Cohens latest ( with thanks to sebastiaan for the link)

 

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

 

The rate of sea ice and NH snow cover gain all important..

[chionomaniac]

I don't buy that at all, John...IMO, once you start relying on forecasts, that far out, much of your prediction must be guesswork? Which is precisely why I never bother with making LRFs... 

I think, Pete, that you have to highlight the difference between educated guesswork and guesswork in itself. For instance if certain criteria are met then seasonal patterns are more predictable than others - and that any long range forecast that bases itself on these type of predicatable characteristics may have some worthiness, whilst still acknowleding that these forecasts are in their infancy. And hence there will be a slow incremental gain in long range forecasts accuracy. If you read the paper highlighted above then it demonstrates one such small gain in predicting NH winter AO state - and whilst acknowledging that other factors may override this it still in itself is a small step forward.

 

 

Another example is that if we were experiencing a strong La Nina then I would be pretty confident in already predicting a February with an enhanced polar vortex in the GIN corridor - and an Atlantic dominated UK. And why? The answer lies in that the atmospheric response to the strong La nina is pretty predictable and can be seen on the following anomaly chart.

 

 

So LRF's are not always a waste of time - which is probably why an energy company feel that they should invest in someone like GP to help them plan for the season ahead.

 

And thankfully we are not looking at a strong La Nina!

Edited September 14, 2013 by chionomaniac

[weatherguy]

Late October/Early November from what I can remember of last year. Through October the main focus is on snow increase in the NH, particularly across Scandi

 

Thanks Daniel  

[Summer Sun]

Looking back at the stats for March on the met office website for the days of lying snow the hot spots are clear to see most are in the west, the pennines, and Scotland

 

 

Compared to 12 months earlier

 

 

Only 2 years come anywhere near this March they are 2001 and 2006

 

 

Goes to show how rare snow has been in March for the UK in recent years, some places had more snow in March than they did in the 3 winter months combined

 

For those of us in the east the main thing in March was persistent cloud as the sunshine hours show compared to western Scotland and some western places in the England and Wales

 

 

Again 12 months earlier we basked in sunshine over 160 hours in some places

 

 

The only March for the lack of sunshine which comes close to this year is 2005

 

 

Looking back at the snow for last winter and December didn't see much at all away from Scotland and the pennines

 

 

Sunshine hours

 

 

January saw an increase in the snow lying on the ground

 

 

Sunshine hours were slightly higher than the 81 to 10 average for some eastern places, Scotland had less than average

 

 

February saw a decrease in snow away from Scotland and the pennines

 

 

February was also a sunny month for a lot but the east Anglia saw a lot of cloud of the north sea which restricted sunshine hours

 

Edited September 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Jamstec is sticking to its below average winter

 

 

Rainfall looks no worse than average still, western Scotland continues to look very dry

 

Edited September 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[UV-RAY]

Jamstec is sticking to its below average winter

 

 

Rainfall looks no worse than average still, western Scotland continues to look very dry

 

Even though it's showing what I like I don't particularly rate this model, due to it's awful track record!

[Summer Sun]

Even though it's showing what I like I don't particularly rate this model, due to it's awful track record!

 

I agree with you there often what it shows the opposite can happen

 

Take the March update for summer which was the same month distance as it is now to winter just under 3 months

 

It was showing a below average summer, in the end it turned out warmer than average

 

[Summer Sun]

First Winter 2013/2014 Round-Up from Gavin P

 

[-uksnow-]

Well this is a tasty Feb CFS anomaly:

 

 

 

 

Edited September 15, 2013 by -uksnow-

[Cheshire Freeze]

Jamstec is sticking to its below average winter

 

 

Rainfall looks no worse than average still, western Scotland continues to look very dry

 

 

That's a very cold Jamstec update there.

Well this is a tasty Feb CFS anomaly:

 

 

 

 

 

Absolute belter. About as severe as an anomaly chart could get, that one.

[feb1991blizzard]

Stonkers  ^^

[Captain Shortwave]

Well this is a tasty Feb CFS anomaly:

 

 

 

 

Holy cheesebiscuits, frankly seeing an average maximum temperature of 0C for an entire month would be borderline insane. I have to admit I think this would be going too far 

[johnholmes]

First Winter 2013/2014 Round-Up from Gavin P

 

 

I did watch and listen all through.

Very interesting about the +ve sea temperatures off the Alaska area but he seemed to rather 'make up' the warm-cold-warm area east of the states to me? There is a good deal of +ve anomlies off the east coast of America it seemed to me thus any surface high IF it stayed that way would suggest not Greenland but further south. But its a bit nit picking really. He has obviously put a lot of work into this first video.

Edited September 15, 2013 by johnholmes