Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Relativistic]

I am pretty sure on his website he counts this as a corect forecast, based on snow in Southern England in January and the coldest March for over 100 years.

Imagine if that easterly in December had come off, he would have been all over that claiming that his forecast (guess) for December was correct. Edited September 13, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Summer Sun]

Another possibility for blocking this winter is to our east instead of north, if it did occur to the east it would keep winter very dry and cool

 

If it did turn out as dry as it shows this afternoon we would be looking at the real threat of droughts in 2014

 

 

Rainfall

 

 

And for next March the trend above continues with high pressure persisting over the UK keeping it very dry

 

 

 

 

[UV-RAY]

Another possibility for blocking this winter is to our east instead of north, if it did occur to the east it would keep winter very dry and cool

 

If it did turn out as dry as it shows this afternoon we would be looking at the real threat of droughts in 2014

 

 

Rainfall

 

 

And for next March the trend above continues with high pressure persisting over the UK keeping it very dry

 

That's a real possibility Gav if the CFS model is proven right and we endure six months of mid and high latitude blocking. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Just watched Simon Keeling's video which shows off the JMA long range model, November and December look interesting

November - high pressure over the pole stretching down into the Atlantic, low pressure to the East, cold with north easterly winds dominating with good chance of wintry precipitation.

December - High pressure closer to the UK but still centred towards the north west, suggests a drier but still cold month.

 

Backs up the CFS

[tight isobar]

As, with most, is strongly issue CAUTION regarding precip(rain/snowfall interp) for any particular seasons especially winter UK.the overiding aspect becomes hypacritical in It's own right! With us being an island of the most extreme divoldge,of rainfull dumpage(ocean mainstream).even with continues h,p influenced, convective nature along with certain type undercut, not modeled overall can pounce on nowcast instruct....

[Tim Bland]

As, with most, is strongly issue CAUTION regarding precip(rain/snowfall interp) for any particular seasons especially winter UK.the overiding aspect becomes hypacritical in It's own right! With us being an island of the most extreme divoldge,of rainfull dumpage(ocean mainstream).even with continues h,p influenced, convective nature along with certain type undercut, not modeled overall can pounce on nowcast instruct....

Eh? Confused.comAny long range forecast is nothing more than a guess IMO. The most successful forecasts are vague and then pluck a few dates from winter to prove they were correct. Examples of this are Madden calling for a snowy December a few years back, when there was little or no snow he used pictures from the top of cairngorm mountain to show he was right. Last year piers Corbyn stated there would be no thaw of the March snows until May. He then found a shrivelled snowman on top of the Pennines. No doubt it started life at 10ft tall and was 1ft fall on 01st May! Certain members on this forum will also consistently self praise themselves and paint themselves to be a genius and bully anyone who doesn't massage their ego and pat them on the back. My biggest hope for this winter is that we can have a model discussion thread which does just that ... Discusses the models and doesn't just serve to massage people's ego's

[Summer Sun]

Will the increase in Artic sea ice have any effects on our winter this year? last year it was at its smallest on record but this year its increased by 60%

 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[UV-RAY]

I rarely belittle forecasters but this guy is taking the Swearing AGAIN and for anyone brain dead enough to buy one of his biblical forecasts, all I can say is more money than sense!

 

Edit: Lol I forgot all about the swear filters!

I don't buy into this theory, it's more to do with UV output rather than shrinking ice. Remember during the LIA arctic ice was at much higher values than today.

[Methuselah]

Eh? Confused.comAny long range forecast is nothing more than a guess IMO. The most successful forecasts are vague and then pluck a few dates from winter to prove they were correct. Examples of this are Madden calling for a snowy December a few years back, when there was little or no snow he used pictures from the top of cairngorm mountain to show he was right. Last year piers Corbyn stated there would be no thaw of the March snows until May. He then found a shrivelled snowman on top of the Pennines. No doubt it started life at 10ft tall and was 1ft fall on 01st May!Certain members on this forum will also consistently self praise themselves and paint themselves to be a genius and bully anyone who doesn't massage their ego and pat them on the back. My biggest hope for this winter is that we can have a model discussion thread which does just that ... Discusses the models and doesn't just serve to massage people's ego's

Not just on here, but everywhere in the media...I wonder what ever became of those attempts to validate (or otherwise) Piers Corbyn's efforts...

Edited September 13, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[UV-RAY]

Not just one here, but everywhere in the media...I wonder what ever became of those attempts to validate (or otherwise) Piers Corbyn's efforts...

He is his own worst enemy is our Piers, on one hand he could be onto something with his forecasting method but no one would ever know just how accurate he is, as he manipulates his findings to suite.

[Methuselah]

He is his own worst enemy is our Piers, on one hand he could be onto something with his forecasting method but no one would ever know just how accurate he is, as he manipulates his findings to suite.

Which immediately makes one suspect that he's really only deluding himself?

Edited September 13, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[UV-RAY]

Which immediately make one suspect that he's really only deluding himself?

It's a shame because if it wasn't for his ego and his unwillingness  to share data we could have discussed his findings sensibly, but for us to do that Piers would have to undergo a personality transplant. A tall order for one so out of touch with reality.

Edited September 13, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[stewfox]

He is his own worst enemy is our Piers, on one hand he could be onto something with his forecasting method but no one would ever know just how accurate he is, as he manipulates his findings to suite.

 

but no one looks back do they ? could we effectively measure at the end of the winter season the accuracy of forecasts

 

Could we ever see a time when we can click a link and see www.winterforecastsaccuracyfigs.com

 

Netweather  Winter forecast

 

2010  65% accurate

2011  68% accurate

2012  71% accurate

 

Piers

 

2010  56% accurate

2011  76% accurate

2012  65% accurate

 

Stewfox

 

2010  8% accurate

2011  4% accurate

2012  3% accurate

 

I predict a mild winter

Edited September 13, 2013 by stewfox

[UV-RAY]

but no one looks back do they ? could we effectively measure at the end of the winter season the accuracy of forecasts

 

Could we ever see a time when we can click a link and see www.winterforecastsaccuracyfigs.com

 

Netweather  Winter forecast

 

2010  65% accurate

2011  68% accurate

2012  71% accurate

 

Piers

 

2010  56% accurate

2011  76% accurate

2012  65% accurate

 

Stewfox

 

2010  8% accurate

2011  4% accurate

2012  3% accurate

 

I predicted a mild winter

An excellent point and maybe Paul could get the ball rolling at this end.

[stewfox]

An excellent point and maybe Paul could get the ball rolling at this end.

 

Yes something along the CET comp but with more parameters. Was it last year or year before that winter forecasts were scored on here  but one would try to remove the subjectivity make it as objective scoring as possible. Perhaps start with a score up to 30 points if its based on actual science rather then just a guess.

Edited September 13, 2013 by stewfox

[Methuselah]

Yes something along the CET comp but with more parameters. Was it last year or year before that winter forecasts were scored on here  but one would try to remove the subjectivity make it as objective scoring as possible. Perhaps start with a score up to 30 points if its based on actual science rather then just a guess.

Isn't anything along those lines a recipe for endless bickering, Stew? I like the basic idea, don't get me wrong, but how could one ever judge without at least a modicum of subjectivity? At least with CETs, no one can argue the result? 

[UV-RAY]

Isn't anything along those lines a recipe for endless bickering, Stew? I like the basic idea, don't get me wrong, but how could one ever judge without at least a modicum of subjectivity? At least with CETs, no one can argue the result? 

Oh they could Pete, as one could argue if your north of that CET then it's not a fair representation of IMBY.

 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[forecaster]

Just watched Simon Keeling's video which shows off the JMA long range model, November and December look interesting

November - high pressure over the pole stretching down into the Atlantic, low pressure to the East, cold with north easterly winds dominating with good chance of wintry precipitation.

December - High pressure closer to the UK but still centred towards the north west, suggests a drier but still cold month.

 

Backs up the CFS

 

Well, maybe, but he's still drawing wind flows around height anomalies, not actual heights. 

[johnholmes]

Well, maybe, but he's still drawing wind flows around height anomalies, not actual heights. 

 

the black lines are contour lines, the blues and yellows are height anomalies!

 

that said his chat is wrong, showing ridges and troughs as being in what are actually NOT that but height anomalies; the major feature is the trough west of Greenland

Edited September 13, 2013 by johnholmes

[london-snow]

[*]Next main risk of snow is December 23rd to 31st

Mr Madden

lol anyone else think that this man is sponsored by the likes of ladbrokes. The bookies must be laughing all the way to the bank with his predictions just feel sorry for the punters who believe it at this precise time.

Edited September 13, 2013 by london-snow

[chionomaniac]

the black lines are contour lines, the blues and yellows are height anomalies!

 

that said his chat is wrong, showing ridges and troughs as being in what are actually NOT that but height anomalies; the major feature is the trough west of Greenland

Funny enough that was exactly the point I made in a post earlier about not reading H500 anomalies correctly.

[weatherguy]

Funny enough that was exactly the point I made in a post earlier about not reading H500 anomalies correctly.

 

 

Indeed, the pressure over Iceland is typically very low, so even a strong positive height anomaly doesn't necessarily mean high pressure is situated there...It could just be a less deep region of low pressure.

 

By the way Chio, how long now until following the strat becomes relevant again?  About October time? 

Edited September 13, 2013 by weatherguy

[Met4Cast]

 

By the way Chio, how long now until following the strat becomes relevant again?  About October time? 

 

Late October/Early November from what I can remember of last year. Through October the main focus is on snow increase in the NH, particularly across Scandi

[John Badrick]

It seems we get the same stuff every winter from Mr Madden

 

In the report he stats;

[*]Temperatures as low as -20c and below are forecast through-out December, January and February

[*]A white Christmas

[*]Early start to winter, exceptionally cold and snowy

Then It becomes very precise

[*]First significant snowfall likely in the period of November 23rd to 30th but it may be earlier

[*]Next main risk of snow is December 23rd to 31st

[*]And January 2014 could be similar to December 2010 maybe worse

Remember all the above is for Scotland and not England and Wales.

 

It must only be a matter of time now till the Daily Express get a front page headline similar to post 586

What about the "respectable MET office" in my eyes they have made worse predictions Than James Madden, we seem to forget the terrible prediction of a mild winter of 2009/10, the BBQ Summers 2010+ and then when everything looks set for a cool wet summer of 2013+ for the next 10 years we have the warmest summer in 6 years. James Madden gets 1 winter forecast wrong......and people hate him.... I pay the met office through my hard earned cash through taxes.They get it so wrong but still people are not asking questions....this is so wrong!! Is it me? If James Madden gets it wrong everyone goes mental.You can choose to pay a couple of quid for his forecasts, we have no choice to pay for the MET office that everyone seem to agree with even when they get it so wrong. It is getting quite ridiculous, if the MET say it's going to be harsh winter I predict the warmest winter on record...ps I know the majority of this forum think JAmes Madden makes things up as he goes along and maybe he does, but what would you really go for this year a snowless winter like we should have in our ever warmer climate or a couple of decent Snow falls. (by the way my 5 year old daughter has seen more Snow than I did for a whole decade from the late 90s)

[cheeky_monkey]

What about the "respectable MET office" in my eyes they have made worse predictions Than James Madden, we seem to forget the terrible prediction of a mild winter of 2009/10, the BBQ Summers 2010+ and then when everything looks set for a cool wet summer of 2013+ for the next 10 years we have the warmest summer in 6 years. James Madden gets 1 winter forecast wrong......and people hate him.... I pay the met office through my hard earned cash through taxes.They get it so wrong but still people are not asking questions....this is so wrong!! Is it me? If James Madden gets it wrong everyone goes mental.You can choose to pay a couple of quid for his forecasts, we have no choice to pay for the MET office that everyone seem to agree with even when they get it so wrong. It is getting quite ridiculous, if the MET say it's going to be harsh winter I predict the warmest winter on record...ps I know the majority of this forum think JAmes Madden makes things up as he goes along and maybe he does, but what would you really go for this year a snowless winter like we should have in our ever warmer climate or a couple of decent Snow falls. (by the way my 5 year old daughter has seen more Snow than I did for a whole decade from the late 90s)

did they predict a mild winter for 2009/10?...the BBQ summer quote comes from 2009 not 2010+...as far as im aware they no longer do seasonal forecasts?