Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[March Blizzard]

Hopes: *in the style of Peter Kay's gaaarlic bread* Thunder.Snow?? Thunder and Snow? It's a revelation!

Ahh Peter Kay...so unfunny it's funny!

[cyclonic happiness]

 

Really thick frost in the West midlands.

I remember that one, the frost was 1 1/2" thick in places and was falling from the trees and such like angel dust.....magical!

 

There were a few days like that in Dec 2010 too, but not as thick, but it lasted longer :-)

 

Oh and some really good hoar frosts last December too :-)

 

 

 

 

 

 

These two are from 2010 of the hoar frosts

Edited September 13, 2013 by cyclonic happiness

[Gavin Hannah]

I always post this video, every year. As it really gets me in the mood for winter!

 

[Robbie Garrett]

Interesting, the CFS keeps churning 2010 charts out. It might be another really severe bitterly cold winter coming up.  But look at these, they are stunning...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PolarWarsaw]

I'm not a fan of 'boring cold' where it's -2c in the daytime and -15 at night for 2 weeks but not one single 'flake' of anything falls out the sky, so a mix please. A marginal winter where it's just on the cold side for snow most of the time and there's lots of frontal events. It would also be nice to get one of those lovely NE/E convective episodes, where it goes from beautiful sunshine to absolutely blizzarding chaos in 5 minutes and then reverse another 5 later. We haven't had convective over night snow showers for absolutely years!

[chionomaniac]

SM's post in model thread from this am

 

 

 

Hi Chiono-

 

Missed this last night-

 

Yep I agree, I think there have been a few fundamental changes in the last 5 years associated with the feedbacks being generated from the low ice conditions-  I think theres 2 feedbacks-

 

* The thermal gradient weakness for autumn - in terms of increased polar blocking-

* Low base state of snow cover ( starting point ) in Sept with rapid increases in October / Nov - feeding into the AO base state.

 

Looking forward to Winter!

 

 

I am looking forward to winter too Steve.

 

I agree with the likelihood of the feedback from the above points to a more blocked pattern in winter. Certainly the H500 anomaly charts suggest that areas where the sea ice has decreased are more prevalent to autumnal height rises and these then can have a knock on effect immediately to the positive rates of snow gain to latitudes further south during October. Last year following Cohen's work we  could see that through stratospheric feedback we could forecast that we would see a change in NH pattern come January and this duly occurred. One wonders would this have been quite so dramatic without the preceding summer ice loss or would we have had another 90's style winter. I have created anomaly charts for above and below ice coverage and these are on my computer at home. I will hopefully be able to demonstrate the anomaly from normal with these - as it is there to see. ( GP did this last year prior to his winter forecast and I have gione back and checked these but there are a few years used in both anomalies and some that I wouldn't have included).

 

I think that this year we have to be careful with the interpretation of anomaly charts. I suspect that GP has been closer with the H500 anomaly rather than the surface pattern - this can be because a weak positive anomaly over Greenland for example does not necessarily lead to blocking - it can just lead to a reduced polar vortex in that region which may not have to much affect on the surface pattern experienced in the UK - rather than a Greenland block that some would automatically assume.

 

 

Looking forward I have been surprised to see that similar years with a west QBO under similar ENSO and solar conditions do have positive blocking anomalies and hopefully the same can be achieved this year. However, it is too early to try and predict this, we need to wait to see how rapid any NH snow gain is during October and stratospheric conditions in November. If these are favourable then the possibilities of seeing some white stuff fall out of the sky and settle this winter will be significantly increased.

Edited September 13, 2013 by chionomaniac

[cheeky_monkey]

Not as boring as endless mild gunge - not by half!

Having experienced both weather types endless mild and endless cold and snow i can confirm both are equally dull and irritating...i think what most people enjoy is the anticipation of a weather event..so im guessing most people here would really rather enjoy a flip flop winter of 2 weeks of cold and snow followed by 2 weeks of mild followed by 2 weeks of cold and snow then rinse and repeat?..maybe a bit like the winter of 78-79

[Summer Sun]

Netweather's NCEP long range model remains consistent

 

November

 

Below average widely perhaps well below for parts of western Scotland, the 2 exceptions to the below average temperatures are parts of northern England (average) and a far part of Ireland where its shown to average or slightly above

 

Winter its self see's a recovery in temperatures for many

 

December

 

Widely around average, parts of Northern England and Northern Ireland stay slightly above average, with some western parts of Wales and parts of Scotland are slightly below average

 

January

 

Again widely around average, parts of Northern England, Northern Ireland and southern England stay slightly above average, some western parts of Wales and parts of Scotland are slightly below average

 

February

 

Again widely around average, parts of Northern England, Northern Ireland and southern England stay slightly above average, some western parts of Wales and parts of Scotland and Central England are slightly below average

Edited September 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Jonathan Powell also says November will be cold which goes along the same route as Netweather's NCEP maps. October also looks settled with high pressure sitting just to the west of the UK and drifting across

 

Jonathan Powell, of Vantage Weather Services, said: “Overall, October looks much more settled. November will be cold, although I’d like to scotch the idea that a harsh winter always follows a beautiful summer because that’s just not the case.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/429062/Storms-to-cause-widespread-chaos-as-70-mph-gales-set-to-batter-Britain

[Yarmy]

Netweather's NCEP long range model remains consistent

 

November

 

Below average widely perhaps well below for parts of western Scotland, the 2 exceptions to the below average temperatures are parts of northern England (average) and a far part of Ireland where its shown to average or slightly above

 

Winter its self see's a recovery in temperatures for many

 

December

 

Widely around average, parts of Northern England and Northern Ireland stay slightly above average, with some western parts of Wales and parts of Scotland are slightly below average

 

January

 

Again widely around average, parts of Northern England, Northern Ireland and southern England stay slightly above average, some western parts of Wales and parts of Scotland are slightly below average

 

February

 

Again widely around average, parts of Northern England, Northern Ireland and southern England stay slightly above average, some western parts of Wales and parts of Scotland and Central England are slightly below average

 

So 'widely around average'. Who says LRFs are useless!

 

Jonathan Powell also says November will be cold which goes along the same route as Netweather's NCEP maps. October also looks settled with high pressure sitting just to the west of the UK and drifting across

 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/429062/Storms-to-cause-widespread-chaos-as-70-mph-gales-set-to-batter-Britain

 

Didn't he forecast a below average summer? It's in the seasonal forecast thread somewhere.

 

Here we go:

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/399211/Another-washout-summer-on-its-way-as-forecasters-predict-grey-skies-and-more-rain

 

LOL. And people pay for this stuff.

Edited September 13, 2013 by Yarmy

[Summer Sun]

James Madden from Exacta weather is back with his recording breaking winter weather

 

 

That's it winters over, the first curse has arrived

 

[Yarmy]

James Madden from Exacta weather is back with his recording breaking winter weather

 

 

That's it winters over, the first curse has arrived

 

 

 

AAAAARRRGGHHH!

[snowking]

AAAAARRRGGHHH!

Indeed I've just caught a glimpse of the Exactaweather forecast and it reads...well pretty much the same as every single other forecast Madden has ever produced for winter - basically snowmageddon right the way through December, January and February. Still if he keeps saying it for enough years then one year he has to be correct...

 

SK

[Summer Sun]

A long way to go yet but here are the mean max temperatures CFS is going for in November

 

 

This is the mean maximum temperature from December 4th to January 1st 2014 member 2 goes for this

 

 

Member 1 however goes for this

 

 

And members 3 and 4 (left to right in order)

 

 

And rainfall for the same period as above December 4th to January 1st 2014

 

 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Gaz1985]

A long way to go yet but here are the mean max temperatures CFS is going for in November

 

 

This is the mean maximum temperature from December 4th to January 1st 2014 as ever the far south west is the mildest place in England during the first month of winter

 

 

And rainfall for the same period as above December 4th to January 1st 2014

 

 

 

Looks rather average Gav, nothing too cold 

[Chess01]

Looks rather average Gav, nothing too cold

it's about trends not one run . Don't get your hopes up

[Summer Sun]

Looks rather average Gav, nothing too cold 

 

If you see member 1 which I've just edited in you'll think twice lol

 

but 3 of the 4 members (thats 2, 3 and 4) don't look too bad keeping it around average for the time of year

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

James Madden from Exacta weather is back with his recording breaking winter weather

 

 

That's it winters over, the first curse has arrived

 

 

So we get "record cold" winter forecasts every year in the media, but how many of our recent winters could be described as record breaking?

 

You could argue we had records broken for:

record snow in 2008/09 (snowiest February for 18 years)

record cold in 2009/10 (coldest January for 20 years)

record cold in 2010/11 (coldest December for last 100 years)

record cold in 2012/13 (coldest March* for 50 years)  *(OK, not a winter month - but it felt like it!)

 

So for people who called record cold or record snow for the last 5 years, they would have been right 4 out of 5 times, depending on your definition of "record"

 

Freak weather headlines must sell a lot of newspapers or they wouldn't keep doing it.  The Met Office are deeply unimpressed when they feel they have been misquoted though by certain articles!

Edited September 13, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer Sun]

It seems we get the same stuff every winter from Mr Madden

 

In the report he stats;

• [*]Temperatures as low as -20c and below are forecast through-out December, January and February [*]A white Christmas [*]Early start to winter, exceptionally cold and snowy
  

Then It becomes very precise

• [*]First significant snowfall likely in the period of November 23rd to 30th but it may be earlier [*]Next main risk of snow is December 23rd to 31st [*]And January 2014 could be similar to December 2010 maybe worse
  

Remember all the above is for Scotland and not England and Wales.

 

It must only be a matter of time now till the Daily Express get a front page headline similar to post 586

[Captain Shortwave]

Edit scratch that - high winds are mentioned too.

Did the guy just copy and paste last years forecast, which in turn was copy and pasted from the year before and so on.........

Edited September 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Last years forecast from Mr Madden in the media

 

Coldest winter in 100 years on way

 

BRITAIN will grind to a halt within weeks as the most savage freeze for a century begins.  Temperatures will fall as low as minus 20C in rural areas, forecasters warned last night, while heavy snow and “potentially dangerous†blizzards will close roads and cripple rail networks. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “We are looking at some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least 100 years. This is most likely to occur in the December to January period with the potential for widespread major snowfall across the country. “Parts of the North, Scotland and eastern England are likely to experience a run of well below average temperatures, which will include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times.†He warned the South faces a bout of “unusually heavy snowfall†in December.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/358717/Coldest-winter-in-100-years-on-way

[Radiating Dendrite]

Last years forecast from Mr Madden in the media

 

Coldest winter in 100 years on way

 

BRITAIN will grind to a halt within weeks as the most savage freeze for a century begins.  Temperatures will fall as low as minus 20C in rural areas, forecasters warned last night, while heavy snow and “potentially dangerous†blizzards will close roads and cripple rail networks. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “We are looking at some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least 100 years. This is most likely to occur in the December to January period with the potential for widespread major snowfall across the country. “Parts of the North, Scotland and eastern England are likely to experience a run of well below average temperatures, which will include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times.†He warned the South faces a bout of “unusually heavy snowfall†in December.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/358717/Coldest-winter-in-100-years-on-way

 

Well he was not too far off, we only got a max of 14c on Xmas Day!

[SomeLikeItHot]

Last years forecast from Mr Madden in the media

 

Coldest winter in 100 years on way

 

BRITAIN will grind to a halt within weeks as the most savage freeze for a century begins.  Temperatures will fall as low as minus 20C in rural areas, forecasters warned last night, while heavy snow and “potentially dangerous†blizzards will close roads and cripple rail networks. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “We are looking at some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least 100 years. This is most likely to occur in the December to January period with the potential for widespread major snowfall across the country. “Parts of the North, Scotland and eastern England are likely to experience a run of well below average temperatures, which will include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times.†He warned the South faces a bout of “unusually heavy snowfall†in December.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/358717/Coldest-winter-in-100-years-on-way

I am pretty sure on his website he counts this as a corect forecast, based on snow in Southern England in January and the coldest March for over 100 years.

[SomeLikeItHot]

On a slow friday afternoon I just ran some numbers about recent winters (since 2007) thought I might as well paste it here.Basically looking at what recent winters had the coldest 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 day periods.As you might guess 2010/2011 wins the 30 - 60 day coldest periods, 09/10 wins for 90 day period, 10/11 wins 120 days, and the winner for grindingly long cold (150 and 180 days) is last winter.Results.Period    30 60  90   120     150 180winter     10/11   10/11    09/10  10/11   12/13  12/13Central Date  12/12/10   13/12/10 12/1/10 8/1/11 28/1/13      22/1/13Av CET  -1.53 1.01     1.99     3.11  3.96 4.64I guess what is interesting about last winter was that basically 6 months from late October to mid april the average was only 0.1 higher than the average winter in 81-10. with the five month period 0.1 cooler than the 61-90 average winter.

Edited September 13, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[UV-RAY]

It seems we get the same stuff every winter from Mr Madden

 

In the report he stats;

[*]Temperatures as low as -20c and below are forecast through-out December, January and February

[*]A white Christmas

[*]Early start to winter, exceptionally cold and snowy

Then It becomes very precise

[*]First significant snowfall likely in the period of November 23rd to 30th but it may be earlier

[*]Next main risk of snow is December 23rd to 31st

[*]And January 2014 could be similar to December 2010 maybe worse

Remember all the above is for Scotland and not England and Wales.

 

It must only be a matter of time now till the Daily Express get a front page headline similar to post 586

I rarely belittle forecasters but this guy is taking the Swearing AGAIN and for anyone brain dead enough to buy one of his biblical forecasts, all I can say is more money than sense!

 

Edit: Lol I forgot all about the swear filters!

Edited September 13, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer