Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Weather-history]

We not had a notably cold February for years. The last one was 1991. We have had December 2010 and the cold January 2010, both at least 2.0C below the 1961-90 average in recent times. Add in that the fact we just had that remarkably cold March, it feels like a really cold February has to be round the corner.

If we can get a December and March as cold as that still, I can't see why we can't get a frigid February at least in the near future.

Edited September 10, 2013 by Weather-history

[March Blizzard]

We not had a notably cold February for years. The last one was 1991. We have had December 2010 and the cold January 2010, both at least 2.0C below the 1961-90 average in recent times. Add in that the fact we just had that remarkably cold March, it feels like a really cold February has to be round the corner.If we can get a December and March as cold as that still, I can't see why we can't get a frigid February at least in the near future.

 

Perhaps a sub-zero CET January is "overdue", too? 1979 was the last one, further back in time than both Dec (2010) and Feb (1986). Throughout the entire CET series a sub-zero Jan occurs, on average, roughly every 18 years. The last one was 34 years ago, however, the largest gap between sub-zero Jan's (1881 to 1940) was 59 years so it doesn't mean one is just around the corner by any means.

 

You're right about Feb, though. We have had a few "chilly" ones recently but not a "cold" one since 1991. Maybe 2014 will give us both a sub-zero Jan and a cold Feb. Or then again, not!

Edited September 10, 2013 by March Blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

Latest CFS January anomaly :O

 

 

 

[March Blizzard]

Latest CFS January anomaly

 

wow.png

Am I right in thinking similar charts have been frequent on the CFS for some time, Crewe? Wasn't the CFS also calling for a cold March 2013 months in advance, as well?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Am I right in thinking similar charts have been frequent on the CFS for some time, Crewe? Wasn't the CFS also calling for a cold March 2013 months in advance, as well?

 

Yep and yep. Nothing is guaranteed though. FWIW the CFS has been gunning for this scenario since May.

[Gaz1985]

Hopefully we get something like this in January 

 

[March Blizzard]

Yep and yep. Nothing is guaranteed though. FWIW the CFS has been gunning for this scenario since May.

Of course, but the similarities to how it handled March 2013 is encouraging (to those after cold weather, anyway!).

[EML Network]

HA HA Gaz !! You do love to get backs up on here :-)

 

My Hopes are...

 

Dec - Slow start, White XMas inti new year

Jan - Cold and snow

Feb - Cold and snow

March - Cold and snow

 

My Expectations based on CURRENT indications...

 

Dec - Average

Jan - Mild

Feb - Average

 

I think there's likely to be a lot of disappointed people on here this Winter and I think many won't see a flake all winter long :-(

 

[throwoff]

Got a feeling we could see a late November flurry or two but overall am keeping my hopes low this year.

 

Last year the Medway Snow Shield held up almost all winter with the exception of a couple of inches.

[simshady]

Let's hope for cold all the way through winter, especially some of those CFS anomaly charts! Lots of snow and frosts. Cool in the run up will do me. If it doesn't come off then there's always the next one. As long as the heat doesn't come back it'll be fine....the colder the better.

[Summer Sun]

Latest CFS shows a south easterly flow setting up for December

 

 

Of course this is all subject to change but if netweather NCEP charts are right a lot of people could end up disappointed as they point to a fairly average UK winter temperature wise with only December finishing below the anomaly for England and Wales -1 below is the lowest it gets for the bulk its average to just -0.5 below

Edited September 10, 2013 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

Latest CFS January anomaly

 

wow.png

 

A wee bit too early for such x-rated charts.

 

Any chance of showing us the corresponding sea level pressure chart.

[Summer Sun]

A wee bit too early for such x-rated charts.

 

Any chance of showing us the corresponding sea level pressure chart.

 

It will change on the next update but this is what it currently has

 

Edited September 10, 2013 by Summer Sun

[throwoff]

Blizzards all winter

England grinds to a halt

 

So say throwoff!

Also, I have never seen such a ramping long range as this.

 

Calling 60% confidence for December in September?!

 

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/winter-forecast-201314/

[Jax]

Blizzards all winter

England grinds to a halt

 

So say throwoff!

Also, I have never seen such a ramping long range as this.

 

Calling 60% confidence for December in September?!

 

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/winter-forecast-201314/

the UK grinds to a halt at the mention of winter!

[Summer Sun]

A number of factors will decide winter regardless of CFS shows.

 

If the Stratosphere stays cold that will help to keep our winter mild. A positive QBO correlated to a stronger Polar Vortex and therefore the chances of prolonged cold are incredibly unlikely due to the lack of any high latitude blocking.

 

Until we can get an idea of how the Stratosphere is looking for winter its impossible to predict what sort of winter we'll get

[simshady]

Autumn and winter are lovely seasons...cool or cold most of the time, fresh and clean..hopefully we'll get a good winter this year. Even if it's average it'll still be cool and fresh..none of the stuffy mild rubbish .hopefully.

[chionomaniac]

A number of factors will decide winter regardless of CFS shows.

 

If the Stratosphere stays cold that will help to keep our winter mild. A positive QBO correlated to a stronger Polar Vortex and therefore the chances of prolonged cold are incredibly unlikely due to the lack of any high latitude blocking.

 

Until we can get an idea of how the Stratosphere is looking for winter its impossible to predict what sort of winter we'll get

Rather bizarrely SS, the comparative analog years are not suggesting a super cold enhanced stratospheric vortex as one might think. In fact, they are bang in line with the thoughts from the CFS, Japanese long range projections, and forecasted computer projections from existing SST patterns. We will have to wait to see what occurs stratospherically upto December - but there is a pattern that I would expect to see for this November at 30 hPa.

 

Very interesting.....

[Isolated Frost]

FWIW, based on my more updated August-September-October projections and modelling; November looks to be cooler than average.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is quite a widespread belief that lasting snow cover is difficult to achieve in February due to the increasing strength of the sun, and I think this is heavily fuelled by the lack of a really potent February cold spell in recent years, to rival the ones that we had in Decembers 2009 and 2010, January 2010, and March 2013.  The Februarys of 2009 and 2010 were both snowy but with an emphasis on marginal snow events, and lasting snow cover only affected regions where there were repeated top-ups.  However, the February 2012 cold spell should have provided some encouragement, when many parts of southern, central and eastern England had a week to ten days of snow cover despite only two or three individual snowfalls.

 

The cold spell in early February 1991 was exceptionally intense but it is worth noting that a February cold spell could be a few degrees warmer than that, and still produce widespread maxima near or below freezing.

[Isolated Frost]

FWIW, based on my more updated August-September-October projections and modelling; November looks to be cooler than average.

Nov_AIR_TEMP_2.png

November looks interesting even when you take out the projected +ve heights to the NE and nearby polar jet activity- though it is much more conductive to more N/NE rather than E/SE flow if October does come out as +ve AO month. I think I'd go 40-60 for the October CET to be below average, and 70-30 for the November one to be. I think December will be pretty dry, but all signals are for a pretty average/slightly milder start to the season.

[Jax]

I am trying to decide to contract or buy and use sim only (the latter does work out cheaper, just needs an outlay first)

[Radiating Dendrite]

I am trying to decide to contract or buy and use sim only (the latter does work out cheaper, just needs an outlay first)

IF you may want to factor this anomaly in! Edited September 10, 2013 by Radiating Dendrite

[Tamara]

There is quite a widespread belief that lasting snow cover is difficult to achieve in February due to the increasing strength of the sun, and I think this is heavily fuelled by the lack of a really potent February cold spell in recent years, to rival the ones that we had in Decembers 2009 and 2010, January 2010, and March 2013.  The Februarys of 2009 and 2010 were both snowy but with an emphasis on marginal snow events, and lasting snow cover only affected regions where there were repeated top-ups.  However, the February 2012 cold spell should have provided some encouragement, when many parts of southern, central and eastern England had a week to ten days of snow cover despite only two or three individual snowfalls.

 

The cold spell in early February 1991 was exceptionally intense but it is worth noting that a February cold spell could be a few degrees warmer than that, and still produce widespread maxima near or below freezing.

It can happen towards the middle of March as well. March 2013 had two consecutive ice days and powder snow cover here , followed by a gradual increase in temperature to a few degrees above freezing by day but still hard frosts at night. With sub zero dew points snow lasted in the shade for the best part of a week. Several days after the powder snowstorm, the temperature actually fell below freezing again after lunch with a biting easterly wind and further snow flurries. Vey unusual indeed for mid March

 

It doesn't get much better than that so late in the season 

Edited September 10, 2013 by Tamara Road

[hillbilly]

There is quite a widespread belief that lasting snow cover is difficult to achieve in February due to the increasing strength of the sun, and I think this is heavily fuelled by the lack of a really potent February cold spell in recent years, to rival the ones that we had in Decembers 2009 and 2010, January 2010, and March 2013.  The Februarys of 2009 and 2010 were both snowy but with an emphasis on marginal snow events, and lasting snow cover only affected regions where there were repeated top-ups.  However, the February 2012 cold spell should have provided some encouragement, when many parts of southern, central and eastern England had a week to ten days of snow cover despite only two or three individual snowfalls.

 

The cold spell in early February 1991 was exceptionally intense but it is worth noting that a February cold spell could be a few degrees warmer than that, and still produce widespread maxima near or below freezing.

February has taken the most sub zero months here in the last 100 years including1942, 1947,1963,1956,1969 and 1986 the others being Januarys of 1940,1941,1963 and 1979 also December 1981 and 2010

Edited September 10, 2013 by hillbilly