Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Gavin Hannah]

I still maintain we're in the cycle of 3 cold winters to 1 mild atm.  At least for the next 5 years. So, more chance of an average to cold winter with at least one cold/snow event.  Last winter had it all, freeze/snow, thaw then epic freeze/snow at the end of winter. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Most people on here would kill for an above average Canadian winter in the UK!

 

And a massively below average PPN one all the way from Greenland to Scandinavia.

[UV-RAY]

Last winter was relatively mild in these parts, not as mild as the previous one but certainly not cold by any stretch of the imagination. As for this winter early signs are encouraging for cold lovers but until we see just how far West the the euro Asian snow cover extends later in Autumn, then it's all just a guessing game, thereafter included!

Edited September 9, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Summer Sun]

Here is the current SST anomaly prediction for winter

 

[syed2878]

god i hope we dont get a crappy mild winter this year. 1 thing though oct 2011 started with a heatwave and if i'm rite the warmth carrid on and we all know how crap w2011-2012 turnd out to be, it was crap for most of it. That winter we here in this part of brum only got few hours of snow wich went by the next day.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

How many people on here are more confident on here of avoiding a winter classed as mild or very mild CET because we have not had one since 2007/08? It has snowed every winter since then in Coventry where I live.

Or does it make you feel the opposite, that we are due a mild one as we haven't had a notably mild one for a while?

I personally think we are probably heading for something similar to 2008/09 or 2010/11. Some mild but then something special.

4 of the last 5 have had a major highlight:

Feb 09 Red snow warning for south east

Jan 10 bitterly cold

Dec 10 ditto

11/12 winter less memorable but the Feb was bitterly cold in Europe and we caught the edge of it.

12/13 snowy more than cold until we came to the sting in the tail - March!

Statistically do we go into each winter with a roughly 1/6 chance of either a particularly mild or particularly cold winter? From our CET records I mean..

Edited September 9, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Cheshire Freeze]

Here is the current SST anomaly prediction for winter

 

 

Nice -NAO signal there with the warm-cold-warm band in the Atlantic.

[keithlucky]

French forecast for upcoming winter Bloody cold lol

[Isolated Frost]

My AO experiment, round 1: based on the August reading, September and October projections- this is my VERY preliminary winter forecast. My 3 composites on August, September and October values are the only 3 of the past 30 years, and are all pretty consistent.

 

Note the 3 composites are 65% likely (August definite, September 80% and October 50%, by mid-Oct I can make a much clearer forecast).

 

December about 40% confidence as of September 10

 

Milder and drier than usual- with the north likely to be wetter, and western areas slightly cooler with a more +ve height outlook.

 

January about 30% confidence as of September 10

Slightly cooler, potentially much cooler at times with +ve heights building to the NE, and a negative tilted polar jet- the likelyhood of battleground situations increase with an increasingly influential continental block against the atlantic.

 

February about 15% confidence as of September 10

Confidence is much lower at this point- but on composites and projections, an extreme month with E winds prominent, a strong +ve height anomaly to the north, and -ve anomaly to the south, with temperatures much colder than the average, especially the further south and east you are.

 

That's my very early attempt of a forecast, I'll update it in a months time (if September doesn't turn out like expected), and then make a final one in early November.

 

Mild and dry start, increasingly cold and active as we move in to 2014 are the early thoughts. Composites that include Feb 86, Feb 91 and Feb 09 definitely make you think.

Edited September 9, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[Cheshire Freeze]

My AO experiment, round 1: based on the August reading, September and October projections- this is my VERY preliminary winter forecast. My 3 composites on August, September and October values are the only 3 of the past 30 years, and are all pretty consistent.

 

Note the 3 composites are 65% likely (August definite, September 80% and October 50%, by mid-Oct I can make a much clearer forecast).

 

December about 40% confidence as of September 10

Dec_SLP_prelim1.png Dec_AIR_TEMP_prelim1.png

Milder and drier than usual- with the north likely to be wetter, and western areas slightly cooler with a more +ve height outlook.

 

January about 30% confidence as of September 10

Jan_SLP_prelim1.pngJan_AIR_TEMP_prelim_1.png

Slightly cooler, potentially much cooler at times with +ve heights building to the NE, and a negative tilted polar jet- the likelyhood of battleground situations increase with an increasingly influential continental block against the atlantic.

 

February about 15% confidence as of September 10

Feb_SLP_prelim1.pngFeb_AIR_TEMP_prelim1.png

Confidence is much lower at this point- but on composites and projections, an extreme month with E winds prominent, a strong +ve height anomaly to the north, and -ve anomaly to the south, with temperatures much colder than the average, especially the further south and east you are.

 

That's my very early attempt of a forecast, I'll update it in a months time (if September doesn't turn out like expected), and then make a final one in early November.

 

Mild and dry start, increasingly cold and active as we move in to 2014 are the early thoughts. Composites that include Feb 86, Feb 91 and Feb 09 definitely make you think.

 

Nicely presented.....would take that. I also think the second half of winter will have the best chance of some cold outbreaks (at present) though I'm fundamentally not sure of any particular outcome as it's slightly early. I'm sure GP would have had some preliminary thoughts though sadly we'll be lacking them this year.

[Isolated Frost]

Indeed, I'm sure Chiono, Lorenzo and many others will have plenty of technical insight on the upcoming winter as well though. 

[MPG]

 

Early December looking nice and mild 

Please can I have the link to where these just are accssed? Thanks.

[Summer Sun]

Please can I have the link to where these just are accssed? Thanks.

 

Sure - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php

My AO experiment, round 1: based on the August reading, September and October projections- this is my VERY preliminary winter forecast. My 3 composites on August, September and October values are the only 3 of the past 30 years, and are all pretty consistent.

 

Note the 3 composites are 65% likely (August definite, September 80% and October 50%, by mid-Oct I can make a much clearer forecast).

 

December about 40% confidence as of September 10

Dec_SLP_prelim1.png Dec_AIR_TEMP_prelim1.png

Milder and drier than usual- with the north likely to be wetter, and western areas slightly cooler with a more +ve height outlook.

 

January about 30% confidence as of September 10

Jan_SLP_prelim1.pngJan_AIR_TEMP_prelim_1.png

Slightly cooler, potentially much cooler at times with +ve heights building to the NE, and a negative tilted polar jet- the likelyhood of battleground situations increase with an increasingly influential continental block against the atlantic.

 

February about 15% confidence as of September 10

Feb_SLP_prelim1.pngFeb_AIR_TEMP_prelim1.png

Confidence is much lower at this point- but on composites and projections, an extreme month with E winds prominent, a strong +ve height anomaly to the north, and -ve anomaly to the south, with temperatures much colder than the average, especially the further south and east you are.

 

That's my very early attempt of a forecast, I'll update it in a months time (if September doesn't turn out like expected), and then make a final one in early November.

 

Mild and dry start, increasingly cold and active as we move in to 2014 are the early thoughts. Composites that include Feb 86, Feb 91 and Feb 09 definitely make you think.

 

My thoughts at the start of the month were for a slightly warmer than average December so that's looking good so far

 

Edited September 10, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Yarmy]

Please can I have the link to where these just are accssed? Thanks.

 

Keep in mind that they change frequently, so Gaz's mild early December is now cold (although not excessively). And by the time you've read this it will probably be showing a full on Bartlett.

[MPG]

Keep in mind that they change frequently, so Gaz's mild early December is now cold (although not excessively). And by the time you've read this it will probably be showing a full on Bartlett.

Yes will do. Thanks for posting the link @SUMMER SUN

[Summer Sun]

Yes will do. Thanks for posting the link @SUMMER SUN

 

Try and get an average over a week instead of daily I've learned that as they flip and flop so much

[Methuselah]

Try and get an average over a week instead of daily I've learned that as they flip and flop so much

I don't pay any attention to any of them, SS...And my winter forecasts are as useless as anyone's... 

[MR EXTREMES]

I gotta sneaky feeling this winter will be a lot different to recent winters, I feel there may well be an uptick in autumn storms around October which of coarse is not really been something of a feature in recent years my concern is summers that have had dominant azores features have turned out to produce some mild winters, although this is just a theory of coarse we have dominant azores heights which keep the north alantic in a steady stream of low pressure and stormy weather which inturn although can give cold snaps they don't really help with cold spells.

 

so im going for a stormy autumn but steady build up to the stormy weather type also higher cet through the winter months with perhaps a cool down in feb but nothing really special.

 

but saying this if we see shifting of the dominant azores heights into the north alantic around gleenland and or strong heights in scandi then of coarse a totally different outcome, there just seems to be a very different type of height domination through out this summer, there could also be possible Bartlett heights to due to this theory of coarse like many I hope im wrong.

[tight isobar]

CFS,overall (trend) gathering momentum?! I,ll personally be looking forward to continuation of again the trending of a somewhat blocked, cold/ very cold scenarios.....!!!

[Summer Sun]

I gotta sneaky feeling this winter will be a lot different to recent winters, I feel there may well be an uptick in autumn storms around October which of coarse is not really been something of a feature in recent years my concern is summers that have had dominant azores features have turned out to produce some mild winters, although this is just a theory of coarse we have dominant azores heights which keep the north alantic in a steady stream of low pressure and stormy weather which inturn although can give cold snaps they don't really help with cold spells.

 

so im going for a stormy autumn but steady build up to the stormy weather type also higher cet through the winter months with perhaps a cool down in feb but nothing really special.

 

but saying this if we see shifting of the dominant azores heights into the north alantic around gleenland and or strong heights in scandi then of coarse a totally different outcome, there just seems to be a very different type of height domination through out this summer, there could also be possible Bartlett heights to due to this theory of coarse like many I hope im wrong.

 

Yes it will be very interesting to see how far south the Azores goes this winter once it gets in place and can take a long time to shift.

 

I can see us getting at least one above average month for temperatures this winter and December looks the most likely one at the moment.

[JoeShmoe]

Nicely presented.....would take that. I also think the second half of winter will have the best chance of some cold outbreaks (at present) though I'm fundamentally not sure of any particular outcome as it's slightly early. I'm sure GP would have had some preliminary thoughts though sadly we'll be lacking them this year.

 

Will miss GP's updates this year

Edited September 10, 2013 by JoeShmoe

[Chris K]

Apologies for not being up to date but why no GP updates this year?

 

I believe he has moved into a post within a professional organisation and as such, is now restricted in posting his work & thoughts publicly online outside of whoever he works for.

 

Please correct me if i'm wrong of course.

[cheeky_monkey]

Looks like Tshirts and shorts for chrimbo shopping

[snowking]

My AO experiment, round 1: based on the August reading, September and October projections- this is my VERY preliminary winter forecast. My 3 composites on August, September and October values are the only 3 of the past 30 years, and are all pretty consistent.

 

Note the 3 composites are 65% likely (August definite, September 80% and October 50%, by mid-Oct I can make a much clearer forecast).

 

December about 40% confidence as of September 10

Dec_SLP_prelim1.png Dec_AIR_TEMP_prelim1.png

Milder and drier than usual- with the north likely to be wetter, and western areas slightly cooler with a more +ve height outlook.

 

January about 30% confidence as of September 10

Jan_SLP_prelim1.pngJan_AIR_TEMP_prelim_1.png

Slightly cooler, potentially much cooler at times with +ve heights building to the NE, and a negative tilted polar jet- the likelyhood of battleground situations increase with an increasingly influential continental block against the atlantic.

 

February about 15% confidence as of September 10

Feb_SLP_prelim1.pngFeb_AIR_TEMP_prelim1.png

Confidence is much lower at this point- but on composites and projections, an extreme month with E winds prominent, a strong +ve height anomaly to the north, and -ve anomaly to the south, with temperatures much colder than the average, especially the further south and east you are.

 

That's my very early attempt of a forecast, I'll update it in a months time (if September doesn't turn out like expected), and then make a final one in early November.

 

Mild and dry start, increasingly cold and active as we move in to 2014 are the early thoughts. Composites that include Feb 86, Feb 91 and Feb 09 definitely make you think.

^^ Fully agree with this prognosis

 

February 2014 has, since about last March, been showing up via composites, and continues to show the potential to be a really rather below average month

 

SK

[Suburban Streamer]

i too will miss GP's winter forecast immensely. 

However, i have noticed since his departure that a lot more members seem to be having a go which can only be a good thing