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xmetman

North Atlantic hurricanes 2013 – all quiet still..

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Hi

Still no hurricanes to mention this year [2013] in the North Atlantic. A couple more tropical storms in August – Erin & Fernand – bringing the tally up to six so far since the start of the season. NOAA still going for above active season, but if it doesn’t kick of this month, that may not come to pass. The graphic is a home made one showing an activity index of the season by simply adding up the days for each tropical cyclone or higher – pretty crude but the NHC don’t produce figures in real time. It still show things not far from normal.

Bruce.

More info on my blog as usual.

 

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Time is fast approaching to say:

 

wtf happened ?

 

So many agencies predicted an active season, and it's not over yet

 

Three areas of interest on the Atlantic tracking map from NHC

 

All of them low chances of development. Conditions are unfavourable for development, and seems like staying that way

 

I don't wish death or destruction on anyone, but boy, is this year boring !!

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Time is fast approaching to say: wtf happened ? So many agencies predicted an active season, and it's not over yet Three areas of interest on the Atlantic tracking map from NHC All of them low chances of development. Conditions are unfavourable for development, and seems like staying that way I don't wish death or destruction on anyone, but boy, is this year boring !!

In terms of storms there is little reason to think the season will be below average. Where it flops totally is in ACE and actual hurricanes though we have had 2 70mph storms.

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I think this season has taken me by surprise.

All the ingredients for an active season are there, Sahel monsoon rainfall is average, enso neutral, sst's well above average. For my undergrad dissertation I took these variables and ACE could be forecast well over each year. This season however appears to be a flop so far unless September and October ramp up activity in a big way.

Out of interest I thought the ACE this season would be between 130 - 170, appears to be a big ask now!

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Has there ever been such a quiet Atlantic hurricane season?? The pacific seems to have nicked them all.

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Currently the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season if third from bottom of the last 63 years in terms of activity, with an ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) of only 28. To put it in context, 2005's Atlantic hurrican season had an ACE of 250, almost 9 times higher! Sure is a quiet year.

 

I guess it is worth mentioning that the season isn't over yet - There's currently a Tropical depression that may become Lorenzo in the North Atlantic, but I don't see things suddenly spiking in activity. Just a few months ago, this season was forecast to be above normal for activity. Not to jinx it before the season's over, but it seems that they managed to botch that up :p

Edited by Sainsbo

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