Convective / Storm Discussion - 23rd August onwards 2013

[Guest William Grimsley]

BBC weather for the week ahead showing a thundery plume for late Thursday into Friday with warm humid air and lots of "thundery rain"

Yes, Friday looks very wet especially for SW England!

Effectively what we need next is for the models to show stronger upper winds to eject all this energy further up the country to give everyone a dose of the good stuff, rather than another one of those situations where the Channel gets a few flickers of lightning before it all dies away. Still tonnes of time for it all to change! Preferably in our favour...

The storm risk charts for next weekend are not as good as predicted as this morning with most of the thundery rain/thunderstorms staying over France.

To be honest, I think we need to wait till mid week and see what the charts forecast then, then we'll all have a better idea on what this possible 'thundery plume' will give us!

[BARRY]

Yes, Friday looks very wet especially for SW England!

The storm risk charts for next weekend are not as good as predicted as this morning with most of the thundery rain/thunderstorms staying over France.

To be honest, I think we need to wait till mid week and see what the charts forecast then, then we'll all have a better idea on what this possible 'thundery plume' will give us!

Yep your learning quick 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Yep your learning quick 

Hehe thanks!

[Coast]

The storm risk charts for next weekend are not as good as predicted as this morning with most of the thundery rain/thunderstorms staying over France.  To be honest, I think we need to wait till mid week and see what the charts forecast then, then we'll all have a better idea on what this possible 'thundery plume' will give us!

 

As is the case so often it seems!  

[Guest William Grimsley]

As is the case so often it seems!

Yeah just looked at this! The UK Precipitation chart was showing heavy/torrential rain over SW England for Friday, this time yesterday! Look at it now! I hope we do get some heavy/torrential rain over SW England on Friday, at least BBC Weather looks confident!  

UK Precipiation. Valid: Fri 06/09 12:00.

 

Edited September 2, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Chris K]

In the reliable timeframe, nothing much of interest.

 

However, the models seem to like the idea of eventually placing a trough to our SW and eventually push it towards the UK. Depending on how unstable the airmass is across Southern UK, there could be some potential for thunderstorms or that dreaded 'thundery rain' to arrive from our South??

 

However...if you have you been reading the Model output thread recently, you'll realise there is quite a lot of uncertainty from Thursday onwards, so I'll be waiting until at least then to see what the outputs show convection wise.

[wimblettben]

Quite dissapointed to see the chance of thundery weather to be extremely reduced today.

 

Although it is nice to have settled and warm spells, I think we have had enouph by now and it is time for more interesting weather to return.

 

If that means deap atlantic lows with severe gales then I will gladly take it over no thundery summer type weather in Autumn.

[Supacell]

If I can bank a run for convective possibilities then I would like to bank the GFS 06z! Plenty of opportunities from Thursday onwards, but as mentioned above, the models are all over the place beyond Thursday at the minute.

[Guest William Grimsley]

If I can bank a run for convective possibilities then I would like to bank the GFS 06z! Plenty of opportunities from Thursday onwards, but as mentioned above, the models are all over the place beyond Thursday at the minute.

Yeah there are lots of possibilites, but as you said, all of the charts just can't make their mind up. I just hope they go towards our favour, especially for SW England. I think Friday is something to watch.

In the reliable timeframe, nothing much of interest.

 

However, the models seem to like the idea of eventually placing a trough to our SW and eventually push it towards the UK. Depending on how unstable the airmass is across Southern UK, there could be some potential for thunderstorms or that dreaded 'thundery rain' to arrive from our South??

 

However...if you have you been reading the Model output thread recently, you'll realise there is quite a lot of uncertainty from Thursday onwards, so I'll be waiting until at least then to see what the outputs show convection wise.

Yeah, it's best to wait until Wednesday or Thursday, really.

Quite dissapointed to see the chance of thundery weather to be extremely reduced today.

 

Although it is nice to have settled and warm spells, I think we have had enouph by now and it is time for more interesting weather to return.

 

If that means deap atlantic lows with severe gales then I will gladly take it over no thundery summer type weather in Autumn.

Yeah, I love big atlantic storms in Autumn and Winter. I especially love the high winds that come with them!

[A.J]

12s GFS very interesting for southern parts of the UK, with a cut off low enabling advection of 61F+ dewpoint air on saturday evening into sunday morning, along with decent mixed layer cape and strong lifting through the mid-levels....If verified, I would expect elevated convection saturday evening with even the chance of an MCS developing over France saturday afternoon with the attendant lower heights suggesting a colder pool aloft steepening lapse rates and surface pressure charts showing a shortwave trough over the northern france moving into southern counties as well as favourable steering winds to bring storms into southern counties during that period.....

[poseidon]

Looking very nice on GFS 12Z.

 

 

 

LI of -5 on Sun!

 

Plenty of time to go pear yet though.

[Methuselah]

I'm expecting whatever develops to split in two with both bits missing the Triangle; one part passing to the east, the other to the west. They will then recombine over Lincolnshire... 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Looking very nice on GFS 12Z.

 

Sat7th.png

 

Sun8th.png

 

LI of -5 on Sun!

 

Plenty of time to go pear yet though.

WOW! Saturday looks good for me. Not so good for Sunday but that's ok.

12s GFS very interesting for southern parts of the UK, with a cut off low enabling advection of 61F+ dewpoint air on saturday evening into sunday morning, along with decent mixed layer cape and strong lifting through the mid-levels....If verified, I would expect elevated convection saturday evening with even the chance of an MCS developing over France saturday afternoon with the attendant lower heights suggesting a colder pool aloft steepening lapse rates and surface pressure charts showing a shortwave trough over the northern france moving into southern counties as well as favourable steering winds to bring storms into southern counties during that period.....

Whatever all that means, it all sounds good to me!

[Guest William Grimsley]

Thursday Night looks like being quite wet. Though, there is still no risk of any thundery rain/thunderstorms at this stage.

 

UK precipitation. Valid: Fri 06/09 3:00.

 

 

UK storm risk. Valid: Fri 06/09 3:00.

 

 

Having said that, this looks promising for Saturday Morning for SW England.

 

UK storm risk. Valid: Sat 07/09 6:00.

 

Edited September 3, 2013 by William Grimsley

[poseidon]

Estofex have some small chance today for the UK in the usual counties - seems to have been issued very early yesterday though.....

 

http://www.estofex.org/

[Coast]

Estofex have some small chance today for the UK in the usual counties - seems to have been issued very early yesterday though.....

 

http://www.estofex.org/

 

'Usual Counties' :lol: I think they have had as much/little as everybody else haven't they this year?

 

They are out on their own with this one at the moment, let me grab some charts to see why they have gone with a watch for that part of our Country.

[poseidon]

'Usual Counties' I think they have had as much/little as everybody else haven't they this year?

 

They are out on their own with this one at the moment, let me grab some charts to see why they have gone with a watch for that part of our Country.

Notts/Derby area seems to have done particularly well

[Coast]

Notts/Derby area seems to have done particularly well

 

The transfer window closed last night, so they can't buy any more!! :lol: 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Estofex have some small chance today for the UK in the usual counties - seems to have been issued very early yesterday though.....

 

http://www.estofex.org/

The 'Usual Counties'

Notts/Derby area seems to have done particularly well

As usual

[Coast]

I've checked the ESTOFEX watch and understand why, but I can't see enough to get particularly excited about?

 

 

 

[Nick F]

I've checked the ESTOFEX watch and understand why, but I can't see enough to get particularly excited about?

 

 

Can't see anything happening in their area, too much subsidence aloft, may see it turn cloudier but that's about it. 

 

Looks like there might be a small risk of an isolated storm over E Anglia/Lincs Thurs afternoon as temps reach high 20s and sea breeze front develops inland.

 

Some uncertainty Friday onwards with a breakdown of the warm conditions, a baroclinic zone looks to develop somewhere over eastern England between warm moist plume advecting north out of the near continent and cooler air to the west. Possibility for some elevated storms Friday morning along the boundary before it moves out into the North Sea to be replaced by cooler more stable conditions from the west. Though an increasing risk perhaps of some heavy showers/storms across the far SW and S/SW Ireland later in the day.

 

But with an upper low loitering over Ireland and SW UK over the weekend, there's potential for further storms to move up from the south across SW England, Wales and Ireland during Saturday. Sunday looks a bit more sketchy right now, but maybe more convective activity towards the southwest.

Edited September 3, 2013 by Nick F

[Guest William Grimsley]

Possibility for some elevated storms Friday morning along the boundary before it moves out into the North Sea to be replaced by cooler more stable conditions from the west. Though an increasing risk perhaps of some heavy showers/storms across the far SW and S/SW Ireland later in the day.

 

But with an upper low loitering over Ireland and SW UK over the weekend, there's potential for further storms to move up from the south across SW England, Wales and Ireland during Saturday. Sunday looks a bit more sketchy right now, but maybe more convective activity towards the southwest.

That's what I like to hear! I'll be watching the skies closely on Friday and Saturday!

I've checked the ESTOFEX watch and understand why, but I can't see enough to get particularly excited about?

 

 

 

To be honest, it looks like a better chance of something developing over SW England than E England.

[Coast]

To be honest, it looks like a better chance of something developing over SW England than E England.

 

If wishing for weather was the key factor - you'd get it! 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Looking at the UK precipitation charts from Friday till Sunday. It looks like that everyone in England will see some rain at some point. Though, looking at SW England it looks like some heavy/torrential rain will move into either Devon and Dorset or Dorset and Somerset through the morning. Then, the rain will move away to the N in the afternoon to leave sunshine and showers which could be heavy and thundery at times. Then, on Saturday and Sunday, SW England will see again sunshine and showers which could again be heavy and thundery times.

 

If wishing for weather was the key factor - you'd get it! 

I wish!

Edited September 3, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Supacell]

Notts/Derby area seems to have done particularly well

In a relatively quiet season I agree that Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire have done well, maybe extend that to Leicestershire. I have been well placed to chase some very decent storms although only had a couple of weaker storms actually over Belper.Next few days show some interest, although i would be very surprised if anything happens today under high pressure.