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September forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition


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14.4 to the 10th.

A -0.2 anomoly.Min today of 10.7 and max around 15.5 should see a further fall to 14.2 or 14.3 tomorrow.Taking Met forecasts for 5 days and the GFS 0z ensemble mean after that gives11th 14.2 (13.1)12th 14.4 (15.75)13th 14.3 (13.4)14th 14.1 (11.5)15th 14.0 (12.7)16-20th falling to 13.4 (with daily averages around 11.75) a -0.6 anomolyAfter that the falls continue with generally cool temperatures to around 13.1 on the 26th a -0.7 anomoly (daily average 12.1).So broadly similar track to yesterday forecasts and ensembles.Edit:If we take the estimate to the 20th (13.4) as reasonably accurate, then CET averages around 13.0 for the last ten days (61-90 was 12.8, 81-10 is 13.1). With a Standard deviation of about 1.5 degrees.Final estimates then would beAverage = 13.31 Standard deviation range. = 12.8 - 13.82 Standard deviation range. = 12.3 - 14.3 Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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No change for Sunny Sheffield a mild night keeping the average the same. Suspect no change for CET either.

Today update should still go down (as its really yesterday's average) but I agree today's average on tomorrows update will probably increase.
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14.2 to the 11th. a -0.2 anomoly [Edited now that its on the front page]min today of 12.2 and max of 18.5 likely. Likely to rise to 14.3 to the 12th.Taking Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS ensemble mean after that would give.12th 14.3 (15.35)13th 14.3 (13.5)14th 14.1 (11.25)15th 14.0 (12.5)16th 13.8 (11.25)17th 13.6 (9.75)18th 13.4 (11.0)19th 13.3 (10.5)20th 13.1 (10.75) (a -0.9 anomoly)After that we have the temps moderating but still slightly below average taking us to27th 12.8 - which would still be a -0.9 anomoly.Certainly the trend has been down as the models have firmed on the storm next week. Certainly at this point it seems that a sub 14.0 figure is very likely with sub 13.0 more than possible.Dancerwithwings at 13.0 and no one below him may be best positioned at this point. 

14.2C to the 11th.

Can't see it on the front page and the daily list has 14.25 which I presumed was 14.3.[can see it is updated now and is 14.2] Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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14.4 to the 12th. a zero anomoly.

 

Warmer max's than expected.

 

min today 13.2 and max around 17 so me may see a further rise to 14.5 tomorrow.

 

Taking Met forecasts for 5 days then the GFS ensemble mean.

 

13th 14.5 (15.1)

14th 14.3 (12.3)

15th 14.1 (11.4)

16th 13.9 (10.7)

17th 13.7 (10.9 )  (a -0.4 anomoly)

 

then we have further but slower falls as temps stay generally slightly cooler than average going to

 

20th 13.4 (-0.6 anomoly)

 

24th 13.1 (-0.7)

 

28th 12.9 (-0.8 )

 

So slightly warmer than yesterday partly due to higher temps yesterday and last night than I had projected.

 

So at this stage something 12.7 - 13.6 is looking most likely, with 12.4 - 14.0 possible. Outside that is looking very unlikely.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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Minimum today of 5.8C, while maxima were close to 15C, so a drop tomorrow to 14.0C or 14.1C.

 

After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET at

13.8C to the 16th (10.1)

13.6C to the 17th (9.5)

13.4C to the 18th (11.2)

13.3C to the 19th (10.5)

13.2C to the 20th (11.2)

13.1C to the 21st (12.0)

13.1C to the 22nd (13.4)

 

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September is very much a cooling month, and at the half way stage given the outlook and the current CET value I can't see the month ending above average - not to say it can't happen but it looks very unlikely. Indeed the odds favour a below average month, and a strong chance of a sub 13 degree month.

 

To return appreciably above average CET values by the end of September requires an import of tropical continental air - ala late Sept 2011 or a sustained very mild blast of tropical maritime air with the consequential high minimas - neither pattern looks like moving in after the upcoming cool spell..

 

Easterly and SE airstreams with an anticyclone over scandi can deliver high CET values as well - but such airstreams are very rare in the second half of Sept - though with high lapse rates - chilly foggy nights can occur and cancel out the high maxima.

 

Even more so High pressure overhead or weak ridging by the end of September can still deliver high maxima but is most likely to be cancelled out by cool minima - unless we import continental airflow.

 

Westerly and SW airstreams (provided no long draw SW fetch) usually mean average CET values at best.

 

NW, N and NE airstreams, cyclonic conditions or trough overhead, or an anticylone sat out to the west, NW or N usually means cool CET values..

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14.1 to the 15th.

Which is a -0.1 anomoly.

 

With a min today of 6.7 and a max around 13 then we are likely to see a fall to 13.8 tomorrow.

 

Met Forecasts to five days and GFS ensemble mean past that would give.

 

16th  13.8 (9.9) - possible first sub 10 day since May 25th.

17th  13.6 (10.2)

18th  13.5 (11.2)

19th  13.4 (12.1)

20th  13.3 (12.3) (which would be a -0.7 anomoly). 

21st  13.3 (12.5)

22nd 13.3 (13.5)

23rd  13.3 (13.0)

After this further slight decline as the mean hovers just under 12 for the last week in Sept

 

Giving 12.9 -13.0 on the 30th.

 

So taking the 13.3 figure for the 23rd and based on CET range of 10-14.5 for the last week

Would get a final CET of  12.6 - 13.6.

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The 6z gives an outrun for the 2nd half of the month of about 11.5C, however the final few days are particularly cool and in deep FI, so obviously very unreliable at this point.

 

I think we can be sure of a few falling days and then a steadying, with perhaps a couple of rising days.

 

BTW, tomorrow probably has a better chance of being sub 10C than today - I large chunk of CET land is forecast to have single figure maxes (although in reality they will probably be at least a degree or so higher). Much will be depend on whether temps can dip low enough by 12 midnight tonight, before starting to rise a little later during darkness hours.

 

Edit: Much of CET area is 12-13C at 12noon, so unlikely we will see sub 10 today as 14ish will probably be achieved.

Edited by Stu_London
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BTW, tomorrow probably has a better chance of being sub 10C than today - I large chunk of CET land is forecast to have single figure maxes (although in reality they will probably be at least a degree or so higher). Much will be depend on whether temps can dip low enough by 12 midnight tonight, before starting to rise a little later during darkness hours.

 

Edit: Much of CET area is 12-13C at 12noon, so unlikely we will see sub 10 today as 14ish will probably be achieved.

 

Yes possibly if we get a low min then I agree tomorrow is also likely. I think I had it a 10.2, compared with 9.9 for today but realistically that is still +/- nearly a degree on1  day out, and around 0.5 degrees on the day and it all depends on when cloud rain etc rolls in at the measuring stations, so they are both nearly the same chance.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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CET is 13.8 to the 16th. Yesterday came in at 10.1C. Last night was a little milder than expected at 8.4C, so sub 10C unlikely today.

 

Looks like a fall through until Thursday, with temps rising again over the weekend.

 

I don't expect sub 13C for the month, however it's unlikely to stay too far above average for long enough for anything over 14C to been that likely either.

Edited by Stu_London
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13.8 to the 16th. (-0.3 anomoly)

 

Missed the sub 10 yesterday with it coming in at 10.1 but still coldest day since May.

 

Min today of 8.4, and max of around 12.5 so we won't go sub 10 today, but we will see another fall to 13.6 tomorrow.

 

Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS ensemble mean after that gives.

 

17th 13.6 (10.5)

18th 13.5 (12.0)

19th 13.5 (12.4)

20th 13.4 (12.3)

21st 13.4 (13.2)

22nd 13.5 (16.0)

23rd 13.6 (15.5)

24th 13.6 (14.0)

 

With temps then dropping again and the CET falling to

 

30th 13.3

 

So a warmer set today as the ensembles firm on a warmer patch around the 22nd-24th, will depend which direction that high migrates as to wether we cool down and end up low thirteens or something closer to the 61-90 average.

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