September forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[March Blizzard]

15.9C to the 3rd.

[SomeLikeItHot]

15.9C to the 3rd.

Min today of 11.8 and max should be around 25 so shooting up to 16.5 tomorrow.Taking Met forecasts for 5 days then the GFS OZ Ensemble mean gives4th 16.5 (18.4)5th 16.7 (17.2)6th 16.1 (13.1)7th 15.7 (13.4)8th 15.5 (14.25)Cooling thereafter to around 14.9 mid month and 14.6 by the 19th which would be a +0.6 anomoly. So a bit cooler than yesterdays as the GFS keeps the low around the UK.

[The PIT]

Can I have a late entry due to being in hospital and losing track of the time. 13.8C

[joggs]

15.8 Ta

[Summer Sun]

16.5c to the 4th

[SomeLikeItHot]

16.5c to the 4th

Min today 11.5 and max likely around 23 should see a rise to 16.7 tomorrow, which will be the last rise for a bit. Taking the Met office forecasts for 5 days and then the GFS 0Z ensemble mean gives.5th 16.7 (17.25)6th 15.9 (11.83)7th 15.3 (12.1)8th 15.0 (13.0)9th 14.9 (14.1)There after the GFS 0z ensemble mean retains a cool outlook falling to around 14.0 on the 13th and down to around 13.6 on the 20th which would be a -0.4 anomoly. Quite a swing in two day from predicting a +1 to -0.4 anomoly at just after mid month.

[SomeLikeItHot]

16.6 to the 5th slightly lower than I expected.

Min today of 11.3 and average max around 16.5, we'll get a fall tomorrow to around 16.1.

Taking Met forecasts for 5 days and then the GFS 0z ensemble mean after gives.

6th 16.1 (13.9)

7th 15.6 (12.3)

8th 15.2 (12.6)

9th 15.1 (13.8 )

10th 14.9 (13.4)

11th 14.6 (12.0)

12th 14.4 (12.0) Which is the 61-90 average to that date.

There after the gs ensemble mean continues with slightly below average temps, falling to 13.8 around the 21st which is about a -0.2 anomoly at that date.

Edited September 6, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Lettucing Gutted]

Hopefully if the latest gfs ensemble comes off this September might not be too much milder than last September after all.  We could see the biggest July to September CET decrease since at least 1995.  5.0C or more to beat that. 

Edited September 6, 2013 by Craig Evans

[SomeLikeItHot]

Looking pretty average at the moment (61-90 average that is), but its still early and who knows what the last couple of weeks might bring.

[The PIT]

Yesterday brought Sheffield's average down from 16.4C to 15.4C. A very cold day with a high only of 12.2C and a cool night into the measure as well. Still well above average thought at +1.7C Expect a big fall of CET by Monday then.

[SomeLikeItHot]

16.0 to the 6th.

 

With a min today of 7.4 and max likely 16.5 using the met forecasts to 5 days we would see

 

7th 15.4 (11.95)

8th 15.0 (12)

9th 14.9 (13.7)

10th 14.7 (13.6)

11th 14.7 (14.3)

 

which is around the 61-90 average for that date

 

Edit: GFS 0Z ensemble mean is slightly warmer than on previous days and would see a fall to around 14.0 by the 22nd. which would be slightly above 61-90 average for that date.

Edited September 7, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[The PIT]

After a cool day yesterday and a very cold  night Sunny Sheffield down to 14.8C +1.1C above normal.

[SomeLikeItHot]

15.4 to the 7th

Min of 6.2 today and max forecast for around 15.5 so a further fall to 14.8 tomorrow.

Taking met forecasts to 5 days and the GFS 0z ensemble mean afterwards gives.

8th 14.8 (10.9)

9th 14.6 (13.1)

10th 14.5 (13.3) - which would be back to the 61-90 average for this date

11th 14.5 (14.0)

12th 14.5 (15.3)

13th 14.6 (15.0)

After this falling slightly to around 13.8-13.9 on the 23rd more or less in line with the 61-90 average.

[Isolated Frost]

After a cool day yesterday and a very cold  night Sunny Sheffield down to 14.8C +1.1C above normal.

14.75c here at Durham to the 7th, 1.65c above the 81-10 average.

[Isolated Frost]

14.75c here at Durham to the 7th, 1.65c above the 81-10 average.

14.25c to the 8th, 1.15c above the average- here at Durham.

At this point last year, Durham was 15.85c, 2.75c above the average- but of course the end of the month was very cool and some low minima and maxima, the last 21 days had no days with an average above 14c; unlikely to see that here. Last September was the coolest since 1997.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Only since 1997 Frost?  September 1997 must have been pretty cool up Northeast then because in the CET zone it was a pretty mild 14.2C and September 2012 in the CET zone was the coolest since 1994.

[SomeLikeItHot]

14.9 to the 8th.

Min today of 6.7 and max around 15.5, so a fall to 14.5 is likely tomorrow, which would bring us back to or slightly below the 61-90 average.

Met forecasts to 5 days then the GFS 0z ensemble mean after this gives.

9th 14.5 (11.1)

10th 14.3 (13.25)

11th 14.3 (14.1)

12th 14.4 (15.9)

13th 14.4 (13.5)

The GFS ensemble mean has a number of cooler days in the following week falling to around 13.5-13.4 by the 21st -24th. This would be a -0.4 anomoly.

So slightly cooler than yesterday.

Edit: Sorry should note 14.9 is calculated from the published min and maxs, the mean page hasn't updated just yet

Edit 2: Ok its updated now and is 14.9

Edited September 9, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[IanR]

a bit late, but looking unlikely to be above average at the latest outputs , maybe around about average or a tad below 14.0c

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still plunging now down 14.3C after a cooler than forecast night. Today looks another cold day so another plunge by tomorrow probably around 13.9C to 14C getting close to end of September average.

[Summer Sun]

14.5c to the 9th

[SomeLikeItHot]

14.5 to the 9th right on the 61-90 average for this date.

Min today of 9.1 and max likely 16.5 so a fall to 14.4 likley tomorrow.

So taking the Met forecasts for the CET region for 5 days and the GFS 0z ensemble mean after that we get:

10th 14.4 (12.8 )

11th 14.3 (13.6)

12th 14.4 (16.2)

13th 14.4 (13.3)

14th 14.2 (12.5)

After that we see continued falls as the cold low moves across to 13.4 on the 19th - which would be a -0.7 anomoly to that date, a slower decline follows going to 13.2 on the 25th a -0.6 anomoly.

So again a colder set of ensembles. So to stick my neck out at this early stage, it seems that the end figure will most likely have a 13 in front, with anything 12.5-14.5 still a chance.

Edited September 10, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[summer blizzard]

14.5 to the 9th right on the 61-90 average for this date.Min today of 9.1 and max likely 16.5 so a fall to 14.4 likley tomorrow.So taking the Met forecasts for the CET region for 5 days and the GFS 0z ensemble mean after that we get:10th 14.4 (12.8 )11th 14.3 (13.6)12th 14.4 (16.2)13th 14.4 (13.3)14th 14.2 (12.5)After that we see continued falls as the cold low moves across to 13.4 on the 19th - which would be a -0.7 anomoly to that date, a slower decline follows going to 13.2 on the 25th a -0.6 anomoly.So again a colder set of ensembles. So to stick my neck out at this early stage, it seems that the end figure will most likely have a 13 in front, with anything 12.5-14.5 still a chance.

 

Too early to say but it looks like we are probably a better than evens chance of being back below the 1981-2010 average, right on time as well for most winter lovers (I suspect most like a cool Autumn).

[SomeLikeItHot]

Too early to say but it looks like we are probably a better than evens chance of being back below the 1981-2010 average, right on time as well for most winter lovers (I suspect most like a cool Autumn).

Yes. I would rate it 80% at being below 81-10 and about 50% below 61-90 at this stage. 15% being colder than last year.

[The PIT]

No update on the CET value. Sunny Sheffield dropped to 14.1C + 0.4C above 81-10 average. Night-time was milder than I expected.

[DAVID SNOW]

14.4 to the 10th.