September forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[Dancerwithwings]

My 14 looking good now IMO.

I thought my 13c was on the cards the way things were going but this damn heatwave warm spell has put a stop to that, but you never know

[feb1991blizzard]

I thought my 13c was on the cards the way things were going but this damn heatwave warm spell has put a stop to that, but you never know

 

At one point I thought I was going to be under but the last few days could be so low that I might even be over now.

Edited September 19, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Yarmy]

My understanding is they use the sites as stated here.

http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/view/badc.nerc.ac.uk__ATOM__dataent_CET

 

 Rothamsted, Malvern, Squires Gate and Stonyhurst. There is links that will take you to map locations from that website. I don't know where they store the raw data exactly.

 

The method they use is  the average of ((Squires Gate + stonyhurst)/2 + Malvern + Rothamsted)/3 .

 

For estimating it via met forecasts for five days, I use that method, but applied to Stations the Met publishes forecasts for that most closely approximate those locations. I use ((Crosby + Blackburn)/2 + Great Malvern + Northolt)/3 seems to be a fairly good approximation.

 

For Longer dated estimates I just used the Oxfordshire ensembles, as I don't think the spatial averaging is worth it given the forecast error at that range, and it seems a reasonable proxy most of the time, unless there is a sharp temperature gradient across the CET area.

Cheers.

[Isolated Frost]

Probably the last below average day in a while (or at least more than 1c below) here in Durham; 12.65c to the 19th, nearly 0.5c below the 81-10 average.

Looks like the anomaly between cooler than average daytime temperatures and average nighttime temperatures will be addressed with the upcoming spell. I think it's about 

Durham 85% above 61-90, 50% above 81-10

CET 90% above 61-90, 50% above 81-10

[DAVID SNOW]

13.5 to the 18th.

 

And 13.5 to the 19th.

[SomeLikeItHot]

And 13.5 to the 19th.

-0.5 anomoly.

 

A higher max than I projected (17.6) yesterday.

 

Min today of 9.9 and max of around 16.5. Met forecasts to five days and GFS 0Z ensembles would take it to.

 

20th 13.5 (13.2)

21st 13.5 (14.25)

22nd 13.6 (16.7)

23rd 13.8 (17.2)

24th 13.9 (16.1) (+0.1 anomoly)

25th 13.8 (12.3)

26th 13.8 (13.0)

27th 13.7 (12.0)

28th 13.6 (10.75)

29th  13.5 (9.5)

30th 13.3 (9.0)

 

All depends how the weather changes after the 25th. A quick reversion to colder weather could still see us in the very low 13s. A longer and warmer spell could well see us above 14. The models don't look at all settled how that is going to go given the GFS 6z was masively different from the 0z at 120 hours.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'd guess that maxima will reach about 17C, so remaining on 13.5C on tomorrows update either way.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET around

13.6C to the 21st (14.0)

13.8C to the 22nd (18.7)

14.0C to the 23rd (18.7)

14.2C to the 24th (17.6)

14.3C to the 25th (16.7)

14.3C to the 26th (15.5)

14.2C to the 27th (12.4)

[Methuselah]

Looks like my only hope is for an upward adjustment...Oh dear. Wrong again!

[DAVID SNOW]

And 13.5 to the 19th.

 And remaining on 13.5 to the 20th.

[SomeLikeItHot]

 And remaining on 13.5 to the 20th.

 

min today of 8.9 and max likely around 19.0 so staying on 13.5 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts and GFS 6Z ensembles after that would give.

 

21st 13.5 (14.0)

22nd 13.7 (17.0)

23rd 13.8 (16.3)

24th 13.9 (15.5)

25th 13.9 (15.5)

26th 14.0 (15.0)

27th 14.0 (14.0)

28th 13.9 (12.5)

29th 13.8 (9.5)

30th 13.6  (8.3)

 

So the Met + 5 days of ensembles have it right on the 61-90 average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some daily records to keep an eye on over the next few days

 

22nd: 18.7C (1956)

23rd: 18.3C (1956)

24th: 18.3C (2006)

25th: 19.4C (1895)

 

The 22nd and 23rd are probably our best shot, with the 06z GFS predicting about 19C and 18C for those days respectively.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield managed a surprise drop due to suppressed maximum yesterday. 12.8C right now. Up up and away for the next few days.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today should average something close to 14.4C, so an increase to 13.6C is possible tomorrow.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

13.8C to the 22nd (19.0)

14.0C to the 23rd (17.9)

14.1C to the 24th (17.6)

14.2C to the 25th (15.5)

14.2C to the 26th (15.7)

14.4C to the 27th (18.4)

14.5C to the 28th (18.0)

 

The 12z GFS has pushed to cool northerly back a few days, allowing warmer air to move north by the 27th once again the CET to creep toward the mid 14s.

 

At this stage, I'd say anything between 13.8C and 14.7C possible before corrections, with 13.4C to 14.6C after corrections.

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.5 to the 21st

 

Min today of 13.4 max likely around 21.5 (would need to get to over 24 to beat the daily record). So rise to 13.7 likely tomorrow.

 

Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS ensemble mean afterwards would take it to.

 

22nd 13.7 (17.5)

23rd 13.9 (17.7)

24th 14.0 (16.2)

25th 14.1 (15.8 )

26th 14.1 (15.2)

27th 14.1 (13.0)

28th 14.0 (12.5)

29th 13.9 (11.5)

30th 13.8 (10.5)

 

 

Still climbing warmer, as the ensembles reduce the likelihood of the  coldest options for the last few days. Met forecasts don't generate the same warmth in the next few days as the GFS  is projecting, but still enough to pull it close to 14.0 before corrections. I would put my likely range a bit lower than BFTV and say 13.6 - 14.3 before corrections  - 13.3 to 14.2 after corrections.

[Relativistic]

Well seeing as we won't end up below average before corrections, I'm hoping we get a monstrous downward correction so that we can have another below average month.

Edited September 22, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[BornFromTheVoid]

13.5 to the 21st

 

Min today of 13.4 max likely around 21.5 (would need to get to over 24 to beat the daily record). So rise to 13.7 likely tomorrow.

 

Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS ensemble mean afterwards would take it to.

 

22nd 13.7 (17.5)

23rd 13.9 (17.7)

24th 14.0 (16.2)

25th 14.1 (15.8 )

26th 14.1 (15.2)

27th 14.1 (13.0)

28th 14.0 (12.5)

29th 13.9 (11.5)

30th 13.8 (10.5)

 

 

Still climbing warmer, as the ensembles reduce the likelihood of the  coldest options for the last few days. Met forecasts don't generate the same warmth in the next few days as the GFS  is projecting, but still enough to pull it close to 14.0 before corrections. I would put my likely range a bit lower than BFTV and say 13.6 - 14.3 before corrections  - 13.3 to 14.2 after corrections.

 

Temperatures looking significantly lower than the GFS prediced, around 22C maxima today looks likely. No record broken with that, and the 81-10 average begins to look much more vulnerable.

[Don]

Temperatures looking significantly lower than the GFS prediced, around 22C maxima today looks likely. No record broken with that, and the 81-10 average begins to look much more vulnerable.

 

September looks to be very close to average overall now.

[BornFromTheVoid]

September looks to be very close to average overall now.

 

Yup, but the 12z GFS (despite its recent failings) has temperatures remaining well above average until the end of the month, and about 14.4C by the 29th.

 

Within 0.5C of the 81-10 average is extremely likely, so an average September is, technically, all but guaranteed.

[Relativistic]

I hope those colder couple of days materialise at the end of the month, but they're still in the unreliable range unfortunately. Still, at least my CET prediction for September isn't looking too shabby at 14C.

Overall this month looks like being one of ups and downs, with heat and 30C at the beginning of the month, a cooler interlude during the middle bringing the first aid frosts to Scotland and England, and another warm spell towards the end. At least it won't be remembered as a boring month.

Edited September 22, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Lettucing Gutted]

Yeah come on heat downgrade!  Come on cold upgrade!

[Summer Sun]

ECM showing +10 uppers pushing northwards next weekend a below average September looks unlikely now

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 13.2C -0.5C below average.  A cooler than predicted night (Beeb forecast) limiting the damage somewhat. However it looks like we will fail to get a below average return.

Edited September 23, 2013 by The PIT

[DAVID SNOW]

And so the climb begins.....

 

13.7 to the 22nd.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday was 17.2C. The minimum today is 11.8C while maxima look like reaching around 21.5C, so an increase to 13.8C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

14.0C to the 24th (17.2)

14.1C to the 25th (17.6)

14.2C to the 26th (16.7)

14.4C to the 27th (17.7)

14.5C to the 28th (18.0)

14.6C to the 29th (17.1)

14.5C to the 30th (13.5)

 

As the GFS has been on the warm side of reality recently, I'd say a 50/50 chance of ending up higher than the 81-10 average of 14.0C after corrections

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like another bust for the GFS, with maxima generally in the mid to high teens today across the CET area.