Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Somerset Squall

central pacific
Tropical Depression 03 C

A third tropical cyclone in the space of 3 days has formed in the Central Pacific. This is quite something, given that the last system before these three tropical cyclones to form in this basin was Omeka in 2010. Tropical Depression 03C is located about 1000 miles west-southwest of Hawaii and is moving westwards. 03C has formed in an environment that is not particularly conducive, as waters are warm but shear is moderate to high. The depression however, has managed to maintain a persistant area of convection over the LLCC in the face of the shear. Shear is not expected to ease, so 03C is not forecast to strengthen, and instead is forecast to dissipate in about 36hrs time, near the International Dateline.

 

Posted Image

post-1820-0-94486400-1376950375_thumb.jp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tropical Depression THREE: Probability of tropical storm winds to 36 hours lead

 

Posted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

03C crossed the International Dateline earlier today. Now, 03C is no more. What's left of it is being absorbed into Tropical Storm Pewa (that's the second cyclone it's gobbled up now LOL).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Similar Content

    • By Somerset Squall
      The central pacific continues to throw up oddities with a very rare January cyclone formation today.  This has happened before, Hurricane Ekeka from 1992 springs to mind. But 01C's formation in the Central Pacific basin, at this time of year, is a very rare event indeed. Coming off the back of the most active Central Pacific season on record too!
      01C is located in the southwest of the basin, at around 170°W, and well southwest of Hawaii. The 30kt depression has a strong satellite signature with very deep convection and strong banding features. I think an upgrade to Tropical Storm status is coming very soon. Moderate shear is affecting 01C, meaning strengthening should be slow. CPHC are forecasting a peak of 45kts, though this could end up being too conservative. It looks like the window for strengthening is limited to a few days, as shear levels are forecast to rise significantly then.
      The depression is moving slowly northwestwards. This motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Thereafter, there is considerable uncertainty due to the potential interaction between 01C and a developing trough. An eastward motion is forecast in a few days, though the track is subject to great uncertainty. It looks like 01C will remain in the Central Pacific however, and not cross into the Western Pacific.
       

       
    • By Somerset Squall
      Well, the record breaking Central Pacific had to have one final say. The latest forming Tropical Cyclone on record in the basin has formed just east of the dateline and just north of the equator. Strong shear will inhibit development at first, but then should ease as 09C pushes into the Western Pacific. More later.
       
      EDIT: Two other records have fallen too in addition to the latest Central Pacific formation. 09C marks the latest a tropical cyclone has formed in the northern Hemisphere, and it is also the lowest lattitude forming system of the Central/Eastern Pacific.
       

    • By Somerset Squall
      Tropical Depression 19E has developed well south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, at quite low lattitude. Winds are at 30kts. 19E seems poised to strengthen. Waters are very warm and expected to remain warm along track for the next 5 days. Shear is also forecast to remain low through this time. Therefore, 19E has plenty of time to strengthen. NHC are conservatively forecasting a 90kt intensity by day 4 and 5, though some models have been indicating 19E will get stronger than this. The system shouldn't be a threat to land.

    • By Somerset Squall
      The eighteenth tropcial depression of the Eastern Pacific season formed yesterday and has now strengthened to Tropical Storm Nora in the far west of the basin, not far east of the eastern boundary of the Central Pacific. Indeed, it appears Nora will be another system to cross into the Central Pacific over the coming days.
      Nora is moving slowly westwards, but should soon turn west-northwest, then north then northeast over the next 5 days. The reason for this is a breakdown of the ridging to the north currently in control of Nora due to a trough moving eastwards north of Hawaii. This should induce a recurve well southeast of Hawaii.
      Nora is forecast to strengthen over the next few days as shear is low to moderate, and sea temperatures are warm. By day 4 and 5, shear will be increasing as the trough picks up Nora, and waters will cool along track, beginning a weakening trend. Before that, NHC expect a peak of 80kts (cat 1 hurricane).

    • By Somerset Squall
      Yet another tropical depression in this crazy Central Pacific season has formed well to the west-southwest of Hawaii. 08C has winds of 30kts. The depression consists of a closed low level circulation just about tucked in on the south side of a large mass of convection. Moderate southerly shear is displacing most of the convection to the north. Shear is not expected to significantly ease over the next few days, and models are not keen on strengthening 08C, or dissipating it either. Therefore, the CPHC forecast keeps 08C a tropical depression for the next 5 days as it moves westwards and eventually into the Western Pacific (yes, another basin crosser if 08C survives long enough!).

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.