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Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14


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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    It's 4 days with no appreciable sea ice growth now. We could well slip back into the lowest 5 on record during the weekend. Strong southerly winds continue to flow over the Kara/Barents region, as well as around the Bering strait now, affecting the Chukchi and Bering seas. The main areas for growth over the next 5 days will be the Baffin sea and Hudson Bay.

     

    The average increase for 2002-2012 over the next 5 days is 63k/day, while the 2007-2012 average is 61k/day.

    According to the IJIS stats, a growth of anything less than 65k/day will put 2013 in the lowest 5 on record, while less than 20k/day will achieve the lowest 3 on record, by next Wednesday.

     

    Something to keep an eye on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    After a drop of 31k, we've now had no sea ice growth for 5 days, so it's becoming more and more unusual.

    We've dropped below 2007 and 2010, so we're now 4th lowest on record. If we don't increase by at least 24k tomorrow we'll be 3rd lowest on record for the time of year..

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    don't know if this has been added here but thought I would drop it in

     

    http://www.thegwpf.org/global-sea-ice-area-approaching-record-growth/

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    don't know if this has been added here but thought I would drop it in

     

    http://www.thegwpf.org/global-sea-ice-area-approaching-record-growth/

     

    It's not too hard to achieve record growth coming from record lows though. 

    Posted Image

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

     

     

    Antarctic sea ice is currently at record highs, but this should probably be kept to the northern hemisphere.

    The thread on Antarctica is here you're interested http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64332-antarctic-ice-discussion/page-33

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    After a drop of 31k, we've now had no sea ice growth for 5 days, so it's becoming more and more unusual.

    We've dropped below 2007 and 2010, so we're now 4th lowest on record. If we don't increase by at least 24k tomorrow we'll be 3rd lowest on record for the time of year..

     

    Hi BFTV,

     

    I notice you are showing a lot of interest in the lack of sea ice growth, can you explain in layman's terms why this aspect is fascinating and how it likely effect our part of the world. Posted Image I do find certain aspects of meteorology quite baffling and often struggle to link these hemispheric processes. As these short-term losses or lack of increases in sea ice are occurring over the other side of the globe, I can't comprehend how it could potentially effect us. Is it all linked to pacific ridges and stratospheric processes for example? Posted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Hi BFTV,

     

    I notice you are showing a lot of interest in the lack of sea ice growth, can you explain in layman's terms why this aspect is fascinating and how it likely effect our part of the world. Posted Image I do find certain aspects of meteorology quite baffling and often struggle to link these hemispheric processes. As this short-term losses or lack of increases in sea ice is occurring over the side of the globe, I can't comprehend how it could potentially effect us. Is it all linked to pacific ridges and stratospheric processes for example? Posted Image

     

    I find sea ice in general quite interesting (did my undergrad dissertation sea ice and weather), because of what a big impact it can have and how dynamic it is. It's one of the few things were you can study how the weather, natural cycles, climate and other things can influence it on a variety of time scales. There are many sources of info on it too, which are updated daily and can make monitoring the sea ice, even for the layman, interesting and easy.

    For example, during the summer, the GFS might show a strong storm forming over the sea ice. You can then track that storm using satellite imagery, watch in near real-time as it churns and breaks up the sea ice, track how it affects the coverage compared to the long term daily data, monitor the floating buoys to see how it affecting the ocean, if it's causing warm salty water to upwell, follow the polar ship's webcams as they survey the areas taking detailed measurements and much more, all from the comfort of your own home!

     

    The current conditions won't necessarily impact our weather, but to go this long without sea ice growth is highly unusual, so I think it warrants regular updates.

     

    As it is, daily to weekly changes in Arctic sea ice are unlikely to affect us during the winter (much like the snow cover), but on time scales of months to seasons, it can certainly can have a big impact. If you'd like, I can make a detailed post on how monthly to seasonal sea ice variations may influence our weather in general?

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

     

    I find sea ice in general quite interesting (did my undergrad dissertation sea ice and weather), because of what a big impact it can have and how dynamic it is. It's one of the few things were you can study how the weather, natural cycles, climate and other things can influence it on a variety of time scales. There are many sources of info on it too, which are updated daily and can make monitoring the sea ice, even for the layman, interesting and easy.

    For example, during the summer, the GFS might show a strong storm forming over the sea ice. You can then track that storm using satellite imagery, watch in near real-time as it churns and breaks up the sea ice, track how it affects the coverage compared to the long term daily data, monitor the floating buoys to see how it affecting the ocean, if it's causing warm salty water to upwell, follow the polar ship's webcams as they survey the areas taking detailed measurements and much more, all from the comfort of your own home!

     

    The current conditions won't necessarily impact our weather, but to go this long without sea ice growth is highly unusual, so I think it warrants regular updates.

     

    As it is, daily to weekly changes in Arctic sea ice are unlikely to affect us during the winter (much like the snow cover), but on time scales of months to seasons, it can certainly can have a big impact. If you'd like, I can make a detailed post on how monthly to seasonal sea ice variations may influence our weather in general?

     

     

    Thanks BFTV, I found that most informative and learned a lot from it. Yes, if you do get a chance, I'm sure a lot of folk in here including myself would find further explanations most useful. I must say I should get my head in the textbooks and journal sources more often but most of the time such tasks get put on the backburner.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Thanks BFTV, I found that most informative and learned a lot from it. Yes, if you do get a chance, I'm sure a lot of folk in here including myself would find further explanations most useful. I must say I should get my head in the textbooks and journal sources more often but most of the time such tasks get put on the backburner.

     

    I'll be away for a few days, so it might be Monday or Tuesday before I can post up something detailed.

     

    In the meantime, the first thing I did with sea ice was download the NSIDC data from here and here, and put it into a spreadsheet, like excel and start making graphs and doing some basic analysis. There's a lot that can be learned from playing with those numbers, looking for things that stand out, comparing to the daily concentration maps like on here, or reanalysis charts, or other weather charts. That's how I started on anyway!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Wot no updates for two days. Posted Image

     

    Check out the latest imagery courtesy of NOAA, Snow and Ice is appearing everywhere else on our latitude. Posted Image

     

     

    post-7183-0-57220600-1384181034_thumb.pn

     

    I feel that even a Northwesterly flow would be distinctly chilly at this rate given the increase in ice around Greenland and Iceland, small wonder the Geese have moved on. Posted Image

     

    Now we reached the date of Maximum warmth for Autumn by tomorrow, anything from the 13th onwards could feel much more seasonal. Things look likely to change before too long given the forecast changes in the Jetstream and other outside influence. Just a case of yet more baby steps before this current weather changes from its nappies and matures into giving something more comfortable and seasonal. Posted Image

     

     

     

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

    pretty decent  progress of the snow filling out this month so far  post-15601-0-94096900-1384216378_thumb.g winter draws on, would be nice for the UK to join in the fun before the end of the month.

    Edited by LincolnSnowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

     

     

    Now we reached the date of Maximum warmth for Autumn by tomorrow,

     

    What does this mean? Date of maximum warmth for Autumn?

     

    Doesn't feel like the Warmest day in Autum to me, but I suspect you mean something more subtle I'm not aware of.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
    SomeLikeItHot asked.

    What does this mean? Date of maximum warmth for Autumn?

     

    Doesn't feel like the Warmest day in Autum to me, but I suspect you mean something more subtle I'm not aware of.

     

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

    Sorry SLIH, I wasn't very clear there was I, I was attempting to refer to the fact judging by current forecasts we are unlikely to exceed Today's Maximums after today's date for the rest of Autumn. Okay, that comment in itself, incorporated my own local Temps, however I am reasonably confident a cool down is the only way forward from today, but time will tell of course.

     

    Here is a post on my local regional containing an ensemble backing up my analysis as the 12th November being a key timeframe. I will attach an updated ensembles chart for comparison, which will take us forward to 28th November, so almost into Winter. Posted ImageThese are very useful guidance tools when studied over like for like runs (I personally usually use 12z daily runs), they enable you to determine a comparative trends, in this case by isolating the t850s. *Note after the 12th November as I suggested, the uppers should never reach the dizzy heights of 10c as they were shown to by today's date in my original post. Posted Image

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78387-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-061113-0000z/page-4#entry2829805

     

     

    Now an ensembles for Essex from this morning's output.

     

     

    post-7183-0-47826100-1384260286_thumb.pn

     

    Right, back on track and let's get searching for the greatly anticipated change in wind direction come the weekend. Posted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

    Right. Yes I agree, seems unlikely we will hit that high a value again this autumn.

    Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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    Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

    pretty decent  progress of the snow filling out this month so far  Posted Imagepicasion.com_6c9bbabfe2654753d11db5669bf5fa6a.gif winter draws on, would be nice for the UK to join in the fun before the end of the month.

     

    If you Zoom in, you will see white pixels in Scotland AND England now. Getting there slowly.

     

    Also, the Ice does appear to be inching closer to Iceland..... What a moment it would be if it could reach the north shore of Iceland this year!!

    Edited by IBringTheHammer
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Interesting side by side comparison for today vs Tuesday last week.  Impressive gains for both snow and sea ice!

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

    Today's zoom...Getting there slowly one step at a time.post-15601-0-85443800-1384295793_thumb.p

    patience needed by me to wait for widespread wintry weather Posted Image ...may have to wait till winter for it! 


    If you Zoom in, you will see white pixels in Scotland AND England now. Getting there slowly.

     

    Also, the Ice does appear to be inching closer to Iceland..... What a moment it would be if it could reach the north shore of Iceland this year!!

     

    A ice bridge to Iceland would be amazing and so cool to see but it would need loads more ice than we have I believe.

    Edited by LincolnSnowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    There isn't one in England? Must've melted since yesterday, soon be back though! Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

    Its on yesterdays Gif.

    Sorry I was being a bit cheeky with my post Posted Image , Got to say I'm starting to get excited about the chance of posting some interesting early season posts on here next week if this upgrades post-15601-0-15363300-1384363952_thumb.p very 'in my back yard' at the moment I know.

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    Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

    Need to get things pointing in the right direction Posted Imagepost-15601-0-68263500-1384459593_thumb.gpost-15601-0-85889600-1384459600_thumb.g

    Scandinavia does look to start  to bring the arrow lower!  http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scand?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next3to6days

    Edited by LincolnSnowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Need to get things pointing in the right direction Posted ImagePosted Imageims2010322_asiaeurope.gifPosted Imageims2013318_asiaeurope.gif

    Scandinavia does look to start  to bring the arrow lower!  http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scand?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next3to6days

     

    OMFG. How bizarre, the 2010 similarities are gaining momentum and in a week or ten days time so too, will the SNOW and ICE, well here's hoping. Posted Image

     

    Where's I Bring The Hammer when you need him? You da legend, go dig out your old post from the Winter Discussion thread. Posted Image

     

    Game on. For us in the UK, generally progressively cooler and drier at the four to five day range and with the Atlantic blocked, look East and North East for a slow encroachment of snow and ice. As well as looking North and Northwest for the first infiltrations of colder air come Sunday/Monday.  Posted Image Posted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

    Need to get things pointing in the right direction Posted ImagePosted Imageims2010322_asiaeurope.gifPosted Imageims2013318_asiaeurope.gif

    Scandinavia does look to start  to bring the arrow lower!  http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scand?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next3to6days

     

    OMFG. How bizarre, the 2010 similarities are gaining momentum and in a week or ten days time so too, will the SNOW and ICE, well here's hoping. Posted Image

     

    Where's I Bring The Hammer when you need him? You da legend, go dig out your old post from the Winter Discussion thread. Posted Image

     

    Game on. For us in the UK, generally progressively cooler and drier at the four to five day range and with the Atlantic blocked, look East and North East for a slow encroachment of snow and ice. As well as looking North and Northwest for the first infiltrations of colder air come Sunday/Monday.  Posted Image Posted ImagePosted Image

    more similarities with the large negative

    2010 post-15601-0-49408300-1384599313_thumb.p

    2013 post-15601-0-11147200-1384599343_thumb.p

    twins! post-15601-0-65229100-1384599392_thumb.j

    Edited by LincolnSnowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    more similarities with the large negative

    2010 Posted Image2010319.png

    2013 Posted Image2013319.png

    twins! Posted Imagedownload.jpg

     

    The negative comment you refer to has confused me though, are you saying there should be more snow in Siberia for example? Posted Image  Even if that is the case, we are in an amazing position for sure. Posted Image

     

    post-7183-0-51668600-1384621684_thumb.pn

     

    Can we get the baby to mature from its nappies, here's hoping so. Posted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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