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Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14


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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Barely any pixels in Greece or Turkey! It's mainly Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia.Sorry for the geography lesson but I couldn't resist.

None the less, they are there lol. And i suspect its over mountainous ground only.
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Hello, now I promise to post something hopefully more worthwhile.

 

From memory, although I was very young at the time, the 1981/82 Winter was a decent one in our part of the globe. So with that in mind, look at the difference in Ice build up back then, compared to the current situation. Posted Image

 

post-7183-0-12497100-1385629509_thumb.pn

 

To my eyes, that shows how the NH is in a totally different state to way back then, all very positive. Now on to a comparison with the EPIC 2010 season at this stage. Even from this, you can see better growth in the ice between Iceland and Greenland and a much healthier Pacific ocean (much alluded to in the MOD thread of late) situation too. Posted Image

 

post-7183-0-56856300-1385630091_thumb.pn

 

If you were to pick holes in that, maybe parts of Europe are currently lagging behind but that is about to change. Posted Image

 

Please ignore the date on the second image in each case as it should read as yesterday's date, as when zoomed in closer, you can clearly see that to be so. I stand corrected, if any of my assumptions above are in error.

 

 

Cheers

 

gottolovethisweather

 

EDIT: 2008 was one of the better ones and that wasn't a bad winter into 2009 either. A early spell rather than late in that one IIRC.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Hows about posting similar charts for rubbish winters for example the ice extent for 1988?

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Hows about posting similar charts for rubbish winters for example the ice extent for 1988?

 

Please do so, should you wish. I must say 2009 looked pretty poor for snow and ice when I viewed it, but January 2010 was a very cold one and a decent December preceded it. It's similar to overanalysing each and every model run, you take what you take from it all I guess.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

It's with a wistful sigh that I look at this...

 

Posted Image

 

 

…and think that soon we will be pretty much the only land north of 53 degrees that isn't blanketed in snow. Damn you, North Atlantic Drift!Posted Image

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Please do so, should you wish. I must say 2009 looked pretty poor for snow and ice when I viewed it, but January 2010 was a very cold one and a decent December preceded it. It's similar to overanalysing each and every model run, you take what you take from it all I guess.

 

That is exactly why forecasting by comparing similarities is useless. Just because two things look the same over two periods, doesn't mean the causes were the same, and while it can appear to be accurate from looking at the most statistical outcome quite often, it's not a genuine understanding or a good method for forecasting as there will always be years that won't be average and unless you know all the causes and how each cause interacts with all the others, then people will keep getting caught out making forecasts based on cosmetical similarities. I As highlighted, no doubt there will be good winters here while being low amounts of ice and snow in the NH. Could mean that ice and snow coverage has little importance for our winters, or just another cause has more influence than the snow and ice, like an SSW for example. Sorry for stating the obvious, but I find it fascinating how many people interested in a mathematical and scientific forum, using such unreliable assumptions purely on similarities.B F Skinner did some interesting Pigeon experiments that highight how people learn these superstitious beliefs. The pigeons were conditioned to do bodily movements to get rewards, just as you would train a dog to sit with a treat t reinforce the behaviour. All animals including people learn the same way, we are pattern recognising machines. But Skinner observed ther behaviours, when he released food at a fixed interval and not as a reward for the pigeon doing a particular motion the pigeon was still looking for the pattern, so it would remember the last movement it made when the food was released and would repeat it, then when the next piece of food was released the pigeon would remember what it was doing that time and keep doing that mve hoping to earn a treat and after a period of time Skinners pigeons were walking around doing all sorts of unnatural movements believing superstitiously that it made a difference, when in fact it did not, food was released at a fixed intervals.A bit long winded but this is exactly what I see people doing with the weather all the time, unless there is specific scientific reasoning that can be directly linked, observed and repeated to prove the theory works, then it is most likely a superstition formed by observing a pattern that seems to exist, but does not. If you find a number of years that contradict the notion of NH ice and snow coverage having any significant infuence on our weather, then it is either a superstition or it isn't influential enough to matter as it is often being over ruled by more powerful weather factors.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
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Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

post-15601-0-85085500-1385855888_thumb.ppost-15601-0-65788700-1385855938_thumb.g looking a lot more wintry in europe now, and those snow cover  anomalies mostly blue below red   , looks interesting as I can not find a similar match, for the date in previous years , maybe its showing there is plenty of cold about to throw around.

Edited by LincolnSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: cheltenham.
  • Weather Preferences: if its warm i want sun..if its cold i want snow.
  • Location: cheltenham.

 so BASICALLY we need the weather to give the charts a Killer Poke (8 bit cheat) in the right direction. loved playing boulder dash on the acorn electron! hope this winter does not drop a rock on our heads! Posted Imageretro-all-046.png

lol boulderdash..cutting edge back in 84/85..graphics and sound. and gameplay that could go on and on if you were good enough.

 

used to go round my friends house and play it for hours on his commodore 64.

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Posted
  • Location: cheltenham.
  • Weather Preferences: if its warm i want sun..if its cold i want snow.
  • Location: cheltenham.

the local press and tv must be getting a bit excited about the potential for the ice off the n coast to start freezing over..

 

next thing will be frost fairs in the new year to celebrate..Posted Image

 

 how much daylight do they get in that nw tip of Iceland..?..hardly any, isn't the tip just north of the arctic circle ??

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

That is exactly why forecasting by comparing similarities is useless. Just because two things look the same over two periods, doesn't mean the causes were the same, and while it can appear to be accurate from looking at the most statistical outcome quite often, it's not a genuine understanding or a good method for forecasting as there will always be years that won't be average and unless you know all the causes and how each cause interacts with all the others, then people will keep getting caught out making forecasts based on cosmetical similarities. I As highlighted, no doubt there will be good winters here while being low amounts of ice and snow in the NH. Could mean that ice and snow coverage has little importance for our winters, or just another cause has more influence than the snow and ice, like an SSW for example. Sorry for stating the obvious, but I find it fascinating how many people interested in a mathematical and scientific forum, using such unreliable assumptions purely on similarities.

B F Skinner did some interesting Pigeon experiments that highight how people learn these superstitious beliefs. The pigeons were conditioned to do bodily movements to get rewards, just as you would train a dog to sit with a treat t reinforce the behaviour. All animals including people learn the same way, we are pattern recognising machines. But Skinner observed ther behaviours, when he released food at a fixed interval and not as a reward for the pigeon doing a particular motion the pigeon was still looking for the pattern, so it would remember the last movement it made when the food was released and would repeat it, then when the next piece of food was released the pigeon would remember what it was doing that time and keep doing that mve hoping to earn a treat and after a period of time Skinners pigeons were walking around doing all sorts of unnatural movements believing superstitiously that it made a difference, when in fact it did not, food was released at a fixed intervals.

A bit long winded but this is exactly what I see people doing with the weather all the time, unless there is specific scientific reasoning that can be directly linked, observed and repeated to prove the theory works, then it is most likely a superstition formed by observing a pattern that seems to exist, but does not. If you find a number of years that contradict the notion of NH ice and snow coverage having any significant infuence on our weather, then it is either a superstition or it isn't influential enough to matter as it is often being over ruled by more powerful weather factors.

 

 

I stand corrected but this thread and many on netweather in fact are about searching for a potential pattern in determining after all, that which involves chaos theory. Then again, I may be wrong. It's  rather like searching for an answer in how to bring about recovery in wildlife populations, there are many outside influences affecting the said creature's situation.

 

Thanks anyway, and I guess it does show how we all struggle (and the NWP outputs too) to understand many of nature's complexities.

 

Best get back to discussing the SNOW and ICE now. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

the local press and tv must be getting a bit excited about the potential for the ice off the n coast to start freezing over..

 

next thing will be frost fairs in the new year to celebrate..Posted Image

 

 how much daylight do they get in that nw tip of Iceland..?..hardly any, isn't the tip just north of the arctic circle ??

 

Be careful what you wish for? Remember those ice-floes in the Scottish rivers just a few years back and Padstow's North Cornish harbour has frozen over for a number of days in recent years. There is not a lot we can rule OUT in this changed climate of ours. Of course, after my statement we will obviously now be facing the warmest and HP dominated winter in living memory. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

some melt over Europe but main block of snow moving west and Europe should see snow in the coming days

 

post-18233-0-52234500-1385952242_thumb.gpost-18233-0-83057900-1385952252_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton, W Mids (123m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Fog, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton, W Mids (123m asl)

Here's the latest sea ice graphic from the Icelandic Met Office:

 

Posted Image

 

Doesn't look too far away at first sight, but then again, judging by the last couple of decades it could be a while before the slightest hint of any contact.

Anyone able to decipher Icelandic?? Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Latimer, Buckinghamshire 116m ASL
  • Location: Latimer, Buckinghamshire 116m ASL

To fill the gap until someone more knowledgeable pops along, I am not an icelandic speaker, but dug around a bit more, and may have the following translations, and a guess as to what these mean:

 

1. Haf = Sea, Is = Ice, Jadar = Icelandic Place ==> So may refer to actual known Sea Ice for Jadar region

2. Aaetladur = Approximate ==> So may refer to  approximate extent of Jadar Sea Ice

3. Hitaskil = Warm Front ==> So may refer to warm water currents?

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Here's the latest sea ice graphic from the Icelandic Met Office:

 

Posted Image

 

Doesn't look too far away at first sight, but then again, judging by the last couple of decades it could be a while before the slightest hint of any contact.

Anyone able to decipher Icelandic?? Posted Image Posted Image

 

 

The northern coastline of Iceland has very low concentrations of sea ice according to some charts. So the water is def cold enough.

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Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

Hafísjaðar means sea+ice+border, and the dashed line is an approximate of it.

(ð is not just an accent on a letter - it's a separate letter entirely to d and represents the English 'th' sound)

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Iceland bridge?

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: limavady N.I 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy
  • Location: limavady N.I 23m ASL

at that resolution it's hard to say but it does look like it's getting close.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

No ice bridge yet

Posted Image

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